Why I Think Archer Aviation Is Poised for a Breakout
But that narrow view completely misses what's really happening here: Archer is quietly building the most valuable defense aviation asset outside the traditional primes -- and a major acquisition or corporate restructuring could soon expose this hidden value. Here's a deeper look at why I think these forces are building to drive a major breakout in the stock in the not-so-distant future.
The White House just changed everything
Trading around $10 with a market cap near $5.4 billion at the time of writing (July 1, 2025), Archer has delivered impressive returns, up over 245% in the past three years. But those gains pale compared to what's coming. In June 2025, following President Trump's executive order establishing an eVTOL Integration Pilot Program, Archer raised $850 million at $10 per share, bringing its total liquidity to an industry-leading $2 billion.
This wasn't just another funding round. The White House explicitly aims to establish U.S. "dominance" in eVTOL technology through its new Integration Pilot Program. The timing is perfect -- Archer serves as the Official Air Taxi Provider for the Los Angeles 2028 Olympics, creating a high-profile deadline for commercial deployment.
CEO Adam Goldstein called the executive order a "seminal moment" -- and he's right. Unlike competitors burning through capital with single-market strategies, Archer's dual approach and $2 billion war chest provide multiple paths to profitability.
While well-funded competitors like Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) pursue both civilian and military markets, Archer has assembled something unique: an exclusive defense partnership combining its hybrid-electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) technology with Anduril's autonomous systems and Palantir Technologies ' (NASDAQ: PLTR) artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure. This triumvirate represents a $100 billion-plus opportunity that doesn't require FAA certification.
The defense disruption play
Yes, both Archer and Joby have defense contracts. But Archer's approach is fundamentally different. The late-2024 Anduril partnership creates a hybrid-propulsion aircraft specifically for military use -- not adapted civilian aircraft. This matters because hybrid systems offer extended range and payload capacity that pure electric vehicles can't match right now.
More importantly, Anduril brings its Lattice AI platform, already integrated into hundreds of military systems. Combined with Palantir's March 2025 partnership for AI-powered aviation software, Archer offers the Pentagon something unprecedented: a fully integrated, AI-enabled vertical lift capability from three of defense tech's hottest companies.
The partnership targets a "program of record" -- Pentagon-speak for guaranteed multiyear funding. These contracts can reach billions annually. With defense demand "stronger than expected," according to Goldstein, the company aims to build early hybrid-propulsion defense prototypes soon, distinct from its Midnight commercially oriented aircraft.
The split scenario unlocks everything
Here's where it gets interesting. Archer could unlock massive value through a corporate split, separating its commercial and defense operations. This solves multiple problems at once: Stellantis, with its substantial stake in Archer, wants to focus on commercial air mobility -- not get entangled with defense contractors. A split allows the commercial division to pursue the $1 trillion urban air mobility market with Stellantis and United Airlines, backed by the White House pilot program.
Meanwhile, the defense division -- supercharged by Anduril and Palantir -- becomes an attractive acquisition target for Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) or other defense primes. Northrop has explicitly prioritized AI, autonomous systems, and next-generation aviation. The aerospace giant's Orbital ATK acquisition ($9.2 billion total in 2018) proved its ability to integrate cutting-edge aerospace assets, expanding capabilities in solid rocket motors, missile systems, and space technologies.
Multiple paths to value
Archer isn't waiting for corporate action. The company delivers its first piloted Midnight aircraft to Abu Dhabi Aviation this summer. Manufacturing has begun at its Georgia facility, targeting two aircraft per month by year-end. The Palantir partnership adds another layer, developing AI-powered air traffic systems worth billions.
With a pro forma liquidity position of $2 billion, Archer has industry-leading financial resources to execute on both opportunities simultaneously. Wall Street still prices it primarily as a pre-revenue eVTOL company, largely ignoring its defense potential. But with Anduril recently beating Boeing for major contracts and White House backing, the market's dismissive attitude is changing.
When investors recognize Archer's transformation from flying taxi company to critical defense asset, today's $10 stock will look like the bargain of the decade. After all, defense stocks tend to sport premium valuations and stellar free cash flows.
Should you invest $1,000 in Archer Aviation right now?
Before you buy stock in Archer Aviation, consider this:
The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Archer Aviation wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years.
Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $697,627!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $939,655!*
Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor 's total average return is1,045% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to178%for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor.
See the 10 stocks »
*Stock Advisor returns as of June 30, 2025
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Globe and Mail
36 minutes ago
- Globe and Mail
Confluent, Inc. Earnings Call: Growth Amid Challenges
Confluent, Inc. ((CFLT)) has held its Q2 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. Confluent, Inc. recently held its earnings call, revealing a mixed sentiment among stakeholders. The call underscored robust growth in subscription and cloud revenue, driven by new Flink offerings and strategic partnerships. However, this optimism was tempered by challenges in customer optimization and a significant shift by a major AI customer, which could impact future cloud revenue. The overall sentiment suggests a cautious outlook, balancing between promising growth and notable challenges. Growth in Subscription and Cloud Revenue Confluent reported a 21% increase in subscription revenue, reaching $270.8 million. The Confluent Cloud revenue also saw a significant rise of 28%, totaling $150.5 million and accounting for 56% of the total subscription revenue. This growth highlights the company's strong performance in expanding its cloud offerings. Flink ARR Growth The company's Flink Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) experienced a threefold increase over the past two quarters, nearing $10 million. This growth indicates strong traction in Confluent's DSP monetization strategy, showcasing the potential of their Flink offerings. Operational and Strategic Enhancements Efforts to enhance account coverage and develop DSP specialist teams resulted in a more than 40% sequential increase in late-stage pipeline progression. These strategic enhancements are pivotal for Confluent's operational efficiency and future growth. Partner Ecosystem Expansion Confluent expanded its partnerships with major companies like Infosys, Jio, and EY. Over 20% of the business is now partner-sourced, which significantly enhances the company's global market penetration and strategic positioning. Cloud Consumption Headwinds Despite the growth, larger customers' optimization efforts led to lower-than-expected consumption growth. Month-over-month trends have been trailing compared to the same period in previous years, indicating potential headwinds in cloud consumption. AI Customer Shift A notable AI-native customer has reduced its usage of Confluent Cloud due to a shift towards self-management. This change is expected to dampen Q4 cloud revenue growth rates by low single digits, posing a challenge for future revenue projections. Gross Revenue Retention Decline Confluent's gross revenue retention fell slightly below 90%, reflecting some churn and optimization effects that are impacting overall retention. This decline suggests areas where the company needs to focus on improving customer retention strategies. Forward-Looking Guidance Looking ahead, Confluent provided guidance for the fiscal third quarter of 2025, with expected subscription revenue between $281 million and $282 million, representing approximately 17% growth. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company raised its subscription revenue guidance to a range of $1.105 billion to $1.11 billion, indicating around 20% growth. The non-GAAP operating margin is projected to be about 6%, with an adjusted free cash flow margin of approximately 6%, reflecting the company's focus on driving efficiencies and strategic growth. In summary, Confluent's earnings call presented a balanced view of its current performance and future prospects. While there is strong growth in subscription and cloud revenues, challenges such as customer optimization efforts and shifts in major customer usage patterns present hurdles. The company's strategic initiatives and forward-looking guidance suggest a cautious yet optimistic path forward.
Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
U.S. Fed governor Adriana Kugler resigns before term's end, allowing Trump to name successor
The Federal Reserve said on Friday that Governor Adriana Kugler is resigning early from her term and will exit the central bank on Aug. 8, potentially shaking up what was already a fractious succession process for Fed leadership amid difficult relations with President Donald Trump. The Fed said in a statement that Kugler, who became a governor in September 2023, will leave before her term's conclusion, which was scheduled for Jan. 31, 2026. In a press release, the Fed said Kugler will return to Georgetown University as a professor next autumn. Kugler did not attend this week's rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee meeting. Kugler's early departure may shake up the timeline for the succession process now surrounding Chair Jerome Powell, whose term ends next May. Trump has threatened to fire Powell repeatedly, believing interest rates should be much lower than they are. An open letter to President Trump: Your threats against Powell are unbecoming, dangerous and must stop Trump will now get to select a Fed governor to replace Kugler and finish out her term. Some speculation has centred on the idea Trump might pick a potential future chair to fill that slot as a holding place. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about the Fed appointment, although Trump said later he was happy to have an open slot to fill. 'I would not read any political motivation into what [Kugler is] doing, although the consequence of what she's doing is she's calling Trump's bluff,' said Derek Tang, an analyst at LH Meyer, a research firm. 'She's putting the ball in his court and saying, look, you're putting so much pressure on the Fed, and you want some control over nominees, well, here's a slot.' The mechanics of filling the soon-to-be open governor role have a number of moving parts that make it hard to say how Trump will approach finding a replacement for Kugler. Tang noted the president could even fill the position temporarily with a recess appointment while the Senate, responsible for confirming Board of Governors officials, is not in session. There's also some uncertainty about what would happen to someone quickly confirmed to the role given that the term ends early next year, although some Fed observers noted a governor can stay in office in an expired term until a replacement has been confirmed. Opinion: Trump's war on Fed Chair Jerome Powell could roil Canada – and your mortgage Over recent days, Trump's rhetoric about the Fed has remained heated – he called Powell on Friday 'a stubborn MORON' – but he appears to have backed away from his threats to fire the central bank leader. In a letter to Trump announcing her resignation, Kugler wrote 'I am proud to have tackled this role with integrity, a strong commitment to serving the public, and with a data-driven approach strongly based on my expertise in labor markets and inflation.' Kugler's time at the Fed was a challenging one as central bankers raised rates aggressively to combat high inflation pressures. Those high rates have put them in the crosshairs of Trump and have caused economic challenges, although inflation pressures have moved much closer to the central bank's 2% target. At the FOMC meeting this week, the Fed maintained its interest rate target range at between 4.25% and 4.5% as policy-makers stayed on the sidelines to see how Trump's aggressive regime of large import tax increases will affect the economy and inflation pressures. Two Fed officials opposed that stance and wanted a rate cut, worried that risks to the job market are rising and that the inflation threat posed by tariffs is transient. Trump fires head of U.S. employment data, claims weak jobs numbers were 'manipulated' The Fed's dissenters found some support for their concerns in the release Friday of weaker-than-expected jobs data that was particularly notable for downward revisions to prior month's job gains. Some Fed officials who spoke on Friday noted the report with concern but said they need to see more evidence the job market is running into trouble before changing their views on monetary policy. Trump reacted to the jobs data with a double-barrelled attack, hitting the Fed for not cutting rates while directing his staff to fire the commissioner of the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics, claiming without evidence the hiring numbers had been rigged. Trump's move rattled markets and raised questions about the future integrity of one of the most important statistical reports financial markets rely upon.
Globe and Mail
an hour ago
- Globe and Mail
Ford's Earnings Call: Record Revenues Amid Challenges
Ford Motor Company ((F)) has held its Q2 earnings call. Read on for the main highlights of the call. Elevate Your Investing Strategy: Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence. The latest earnings call from Ford Motor Company presented a mixed sentiment, reflecting both commendable achievements and notable challenges. The company reported strong revenue performance and market share gains, alongside strategic improvements in cost efficiency and credit performance. However, it also faced significant challenges, including tariff headwinds, quality and recall issues, and pressure in the commercial vehicle market. Record Revenue Achievement Ford reported a record $50 billion in revenue for the second quarter, underscoring the strength of its product lineup. This milestone highlights the company's ability to leverage its diverse offerings to capture market demand effectively. Ford Pro Performance Ford Pro's revenue grew by 11% to nearly $19 billion, achieving a 12.3% EBIT margin. This growth was driven by a robust product lineup and disciplined pricing strategies, showcasing Ford's strategic focus on its professional segment. Market Share Gains Ford increased its market share in the U.S. by 1.7 points sequentially, marking the best sales quarter for trucks in 20 years. This gain reflects the company's competitive positioning and strong consumer demand for its truck offerings. Improved Cost Efficiency Ford achieved its fourth consecutive quarter of year-over-year cost improvement, excluding the impact of tariffs. This demonstrates Ford's commitment to operational efficiency and cost management. Positive Credit Performance Ford Credit delivered $645 million of EBT, up $300 million, supported by a strong financing margin and receivables growth. This performance underscores the strength of Ford's financial services arm. Strong Free Cash Flow Ford generated $2.8 billion in adjusted free cash flow, maintaining a strong balance sheet with $28 billion in cash. This financial strength provides Ford with flexibility to invest in future growth opportunities. Tariff Headwinds Ford expects tariffs to be a net headwind of about $2 billion for the year, impacting adjusted EBIT. This challenge highlights the external pressures affecting Ford's profitability. Recall and Quality Challenges Ford faced a record number of recalls, although many were software-related, which are less costly than mechanical recalls. This indicates ongoing quality control challenges that the company needs to address. Model e Margin Pressure Despite revenue growth, Model e faced margin pressure due to high fixed costs associated with EV production. This reflects the broader industry challenge of balancing growth and profitability in the electric vehicle market. Price Pressure in Commercial Vehicles Pricing pressure was noted in the commercial van segment, although full-size pickup pricing remained strong. This suggests competitive dynamics in certain segments of Ford's commercial vehicle offerings. Forward-Looking Guidance Ford updated its full-year guidance, expecting adjusted EBIT between $6.5 billion and $7.5 billion, with adjusted free cash flow forecasted at $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion, despite a net tariff headwind of approximately $2 billion. The company highlighted a record quarterly revenue of $50 billion, with adjusted EBIT at $2.1 billion. Ford Pro maintained strong performance, while Model e more than doubled its revenue, achieving significant margin improvement. Ford also emphasized ongoing cost improvements and a reduction in CO2 credit purchases. In summary, Ford's earnings call presented a balanced view of its current performance and future prospects. While the company celebrated record revenues and market share gains, it also acknowledged challenges such as tariff impacts and quality issues. The forward-looking guidance reflects Ford's strategic focus on sustaining growth and improving operational efficiency amidst external pressures.
