MLS teams are losing their home field advantage – and that's no bad thing

The Guardian

3 days ago

For nearly two decades, Major League Soccer's home teams enjoyed a striking edge. When fans filled stands in cities from Miami to Vancouver, they could typically count on seeing their team win about 60% of the time. It's a notable mark. The Premier League saw home teams win just 45.7% of matches between the league's inception in 1992 up to the start of the 2024-25 season.
But as 2025 unfolds, MLS home-win percentages have slumped to the mid-40s – putting the US and Canada league roughly in line with English and European norms. Rather than suggesting decline, though, the shift signals maturity: an American league evolving into a globally competitive, balanced championship.
In its early years, the competitive balance of MLS was shaped by the league's geography and infrastructure. The vast distances between cities, frequent long-haul flights across multiple time zones, high-altitude arenas like Colorado's and patchwork playing surfaces made away games gruelling. And home teams capitalized.
Data covering the last 15 seasons shows how a rise in home win percentage came to a peak at 56% in 2017. But since then, it has steadily declined to the current all-time league low for the 2025 season of 44%, almost precisely in line with the Premier League average.
This stark dominance of home teams in MLS was always seen as somewhat unnatural – results shaped by a concoction of quirky conditions rather than sheer sporting merit. When refereeing decisions skewed towards 'home cooking', stadiums were hostile and travel wreaked havoc on routines, the raw result was a clear disadvantage for away sides. MLS was an outlier compared to its top European counterparts not because its teams were vastly better at home, but because away fixtures were uniquely punishing.
The geography of MLS road fixtures hasn't changed, but the response to it has. Clubs now send players on charter flights, design travel routines to combat jet lag and ensure sleep and training adhere to circadian science.
In an interview with the Guardian before leaving LAFC, striker Olivier Giroud discussed the physical toil of an MLS travel schedule and the need to prioritise proper rest and recovery.
'Here, I've already done 20 hours of flight in a month,' the French striker said. 'So it's important to be even more professional in your recovery – sleeping well, eating well and doing the treatments you need to be fit.'
Members of the Vancouver Whitecaps staff once publicly stated that the club adapts training, meal timing and sleep schedules to match West Coast rhythms and reduce circadian disruption ahead of arduous road trips. Dr Ben Sporer, who was part of the club's sports science team, explained to the St Albert Gazette they 'keep them on the same pattern that they've been used to' to maintain performance across long travel trips. 'Basically from the standpoint of the players,' he added, 'they don't feel like they're dealing with this circadian rhythm change that throws you off and makes you feel fatigued later in the day.'
Another factor that has likely contributed to a flattening of the home-away playing field is a continual uptick in refereeing accuracy, as MLS has embraced VAR and invested in referee training, which reduces home bias.
Academic research, including Carron and Paradis' 1992 report on home advantage in sports, shows that officiating bias is one of the most consistent drivers of home field advantage. With VAR in use, decisions over marginal offsides or fouls are less likely to tilt toward the home side. MLS' Professional Referee Organization (Pro) has publicly acknowledged past officiating errors and committed to greater transparency, aligning the league with global standards. Less referee bias equals fewer undeserved points for home teams, levelling the competitive field.
The tactical revolution MLS has undergone over the last decade is another contributor. Teams now travel with play strategies built around pressing systems that suppress opposition creativity in a more aggressive manner than the kind of sit-back-and-defend approaches more common in the past. Bolder tactical systems call for midfielders not to drop back and augment the defense – thus inviting pressure and ceding possession – in away games but to press high and control tempo.
The archetypal away performance is now one of tactical discipline and ruthless exploitation of hard-earned openings, not bodily surrender and hoping for set-piece serendipity.
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Large crowds once translated into bigger margins for home teams, but that effect is diminishing, too. In 2006, research showed an extra 10,000 fans delivered about 0.1 extra goals per match in England. Yet, while new stadium designs often seek to amplify crowd noise, and although passionate fan cultures have developed, their impact on results appears mitigated by the improved preparation of visiting teams and greater referring scrutiny.
MLS' trajectory mirrors other professional leagues. Home advantage across sports has declined as travel has improved, refereeing has become more consistent and tactics more sophisticated. A little past the midway point of the 2024-25 Premier League season, home wins had fallen to just 39% – eventually rising to 41% by the end of the campaign – a level only seen during the Covid era of empty arenas.
This shift has implications: the value of home advantage for playoff qualification is now contextual rather than assumed. Teams that still rely on fortress mentality must now invest in tactical flexibility, squad depth and mental resilience. As parity reigns, home games still matter, but they're no longer automatic points.
Away teams are better prepared, travel strategies refined, referees more consistent and coaches smarter. The geography might still bite, but not as deeply as it once did.
The shift towards home and away parity suggests that MLS has graduated from a quirky outpost in the global soccer landscape to a structured league where points are earned, not gifted.
There are plenty of factors that make MLS wonderfully unique within the wider football world, but the shifting home-away dynamic shows that in terms of play, preparation and infrastructure, US soccer's top division is now a match for its European counterparts.
For a league still looking for global respect, aligning its home win percentages with European norms is a sign of convergence in competitive standards. MLS's tumbling home-win rate isn't evidence of decline – it's proof of growth.