Why they'll win, why they won't: The case for and against those under par at the U.S. Open
Live From the U.S. Open breaks down the state of Viktor Hovland's game, including his elite iron play, improved chipping and inconsistent driver, with the 27-year-old three shots back of the lead entering Sunday.
OAKMONT, Pa. – We have one round to go at big, bad Oakmont Country Club, which was drenched by heavy rains late Friday and into the morning on Saturday.
The venerable layout was softened, sure, but it still played tough.
And through three days, just four players sit under par – leader Sam Burns at 4 under; J.J. Spaun and Adam Scott a shot back; and Viktor Hovland at 1 under.
Assuming the champion will come from one of Sunday's final two pairings, here's a look at the potential winners and their prospects of winning this 125th U.S. Open:
Sam Burns, 4 under
Why he will win: He's been the best player this week. Take away a 5-over finish in his last four holes on Thursday and Burns could be running away with this thing. He's scrambled amazingly, ranking second in the field for the week. His up-and-downs for par at No. 15 and birdie at No. 17 particularly stood out as showing why Burns has what it takes to win. We also know he's the best putter in the field, though he's currently 16th in strokes gained: putting. And above all, he's hitting his irons arguably the best he's ever hit them, considering the circumstances. He's No. 1 in strokes gained: approach. Getting that first major top-10 at Pinehurst last year has given Burns that extra belief that maybe he is good enough to win one of these things.
Why he won't win: Driving. Usually a strength, Burns lost over two-and-a-half shots off the tee on Saturday and he's 58th in strokes gained: off the tee for the week. Twice he's hit seven fairways this week.
What he said: 'I didn't drive the ball as well as I would have liked to. But when I got out of position I feel like I did a good job of getting myself back in the fairway, having a wedge or short iron in my hand and giving myself a chance for par. I was able to convert some of those and kind of kept the momentum going.'
J.J. Spaun tees off on the second hole during the first round of the Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin on May 29, 2025.
Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
J.J. Spaun, 3 under
Why he will win: Grit. After a bogey-free opening round, Spaun has managed to avoid the debilitating mistakes for at least two more days. He's not carded a double, and his eight bogeys are the least amount of bogeys or worse in the field. 'The grit that I'm showing this week has kind of went along well with that mentality of just kind of plugging along and taking what the course gives me,' Spaun said. Spaun also missed just three greens on Saturday as he continues to pile up those and fairways, part of the recipe to avoiding those doubles and triples.
Why he won't win: Regression. Spaun doesn't own a single major top-20 in his career. He also ranks, for the season, 120th in strokes gained: around the green and 84th in strokes gained: putting; his ranks this week in those categories: T-19 and 1st. Will that be sustainable for 18 more holes?
What he said: 'This is the first time for me to be in contention in a major, I think, yeah. I mean The Players is an unofficial major, I guess, but yeah, it's fun. I mean it's kind of everything that you prepare and hope to have the opportunity to have at these big events, let alone just getting into them are so hard. I mean, a year and prior, like I couldn't even get into these tournaments. So, to see myself here qualifying off world ranking just based off how I've been playing all year was a nice treat. But then to kind of back up how I've been doing all year and be in contention is fun.'
Jun 14, 2025; Oakmont, Pennsylvania, USA; Adam Scott plays his shot from the third tee during the third round of the U.S. Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Bill Streicher-Imagn Images
Adam Scott, 3 under
Why he will win: Experience. Of the 10 players at 3 over or better, only Scott has a major title under his belt. Add to that, 19 career major top-10s. Even though Scott only has one top-10 in the past six years and he's weeks away from turning 45, that he's played himself into this position gives him the permission to use his bevy of major knowledge. He also doesn't seem to bothered by Oakmont. 'It's not that easy, but it certainly feels like it's been relatively stress-free,' Scott said. '… I don't know about the yardage books, but I would say I was less overwhelmed coming to Oakmont this time, and that's not a knock on the golf course, but maybe just a couple trips around the U.S. Open here, I knew what to expect.'
Why he won't win: For as great as he's struck the ball, ranking third in strokes gained: tee to green, he did miss seven greens on Saturday. He'll need to bring that number up. Admittedly, though, it's hard to find a big reason why he won't lift the trophy.
What he said: 'Everyone out here has got their journey, you know. Putting ourselves in these positions doesn't just happen by fluke. It's not easy to do it. I really haven't been in this kind of position for five or six years, or feeling like I'm that player. But that's what I'm always working towards. It's not that easy to figure it all out. But if I were to come away with it tomorrow, it would be a hell of a round of golf and an exclamation point on my career.'
Jun 14, 2025; Oakmont, Pennsylvania, USA; Viktor Hovland plays his shot from the first tee during the third round of the U.S. Open golf tournament. Mandatory Credit: Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images
Viktor Hovland, 1 under
Why he will win: Iron play and (surprisingly) short game. For as poorly as he's hit the driver (more on that below), Hovland still leads the field in strokes gained: tee to green. He's No. 1 in proximity and third in both strokes gained: approach and around the green. Hovland's short-game struggles are well documented, but Oakmont's gnarly, 5-inch rough has de-skilled chipping as there's really only one way to hit the ball from those tangled lies – judge how fast you're swinging through the thick stuff and hope that the ball pops out like you guessed. Hovland guessed perfectly on the par-4 17th hole, gashing a 63-yard pitch shot to 3 feet for his final birdie of the round.
Why he won't win: The driver. It's nearly 9 p.m. and as I write this Hovland is still bashing drivers on the range. 'Just can't seem to figure it out,' Hovland said Saturday evening. 'It's like a lingering problem all this year, so it's kind of pissing me off.' While Hovland hit nine fairways in Round 3, three more than he found the previous day, he lost over two shots off the tee, dropping his rank for the week to 38th among those who made the cut. Hovland said he feels like he guided his drives more on Saturday and started to see those tee balls leak a little right.
What he said: 'Just feel like I've matured a lot more, just seen a lot more stuff happening. I know kind of what it takes to win a major championship, so I know the shots to try to hit and what shots not to try to hit. Feel like I'm way better equipped, just need to get that driver sorted, and I've got the game to do it. So, it's like I'm super proud that I'm that close.'
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