
Zambia maize production bounces back
In the summer of 2024, Zambia, a country reliant on minimal maize imports for nearly two decades, was in a tricky position. Like many countries in Southern Africa, it was hit by the mid-summer drought.
Zambia had planted its usual maize area of
The season started with relatively small opening stocks of just under half a million tonnes, and the expected harvest was about a million tonnes. This volume would not meet Zambia's annual maize needs of
Zambia was not alone and was not the worst-affected country in the region by the mid-summer drought of 2024. Zimbabwe lost roughly
Because of its improved seed cultivars, South Africa saw a much better path. The drought led to a 22% decline in maize harvest to 12.85 million tonnes, which meant South Africa was among the few countries that had to supply maize to the region.
Another positive aspect is that South Africa had large opening stocks of over two million tonnes, which added to the 12.85 million tonnes. This placed the country in a better position to supply the region and cushion it from a food crisis.
But we are now far from this reality. Zambia's 2024-25 maize crop has bounced back. The government forecasts the harvest
The harvest is under way in the country, and the message we are hearing about the quality of the crop remains encouraging. This also means Zambia could return to being a net exporter of maize because its domestic maize consumption is about 2.8 million tonnes, far surpassed by the expected harvest of 3.66 million tonnes.
Importantly, one can expect the domestic maize prices to continue moderating as the harvest continues, thus easing the general food price inflation.
Zambia is also not the only fortunate country in the Southern Africa region. The entire region received better rains, even excessive rains in some areas. We continue to hear encouraging news of the better grain harvest in Zimbabwe. For example, Zimbabwean farmers likely planted
We will know more about the yields in the coming weeks and months. What is clear at the moment is that Zimbabwe will, too, have a better maize harvest compared to the 2023-24 drought year.
The South African story is even more optimistic. For example, South Africa's 2024-25 maize harvest is forecast at 14.66 million tonnes. There is an increase in white and yellow maize, with harvests now at 7.75 million tonnes and 6.91 million tonnes, respectively.
Overall, the maize harvest of 14.66 million tonnes is up 14% year-on-year, primarily benefiting from expected yield improvements on an annual basis. Importantly, these forecasts are well above South Africa's yearly maize needs of about 11.8 million tonnes, which implies that South Africa will have a surplus and remain a net exporter of maize.
The 2024-25 season is a positive change for Southern Africa's staple crop, maize. Importantly, it is encouraging to see Zambia bounce back. This country is vital in maize supplies to the region as the second largest producer after South Africa.
Wandile Sihlobo is the chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa.
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles


Mail & Guardian
3 hours ago
- Mail & Guardian
Humans must be the decisionmakers when AI is used in legal proceedings
The use of artificial intelligence in arbitration may support justice, but it cannot replace those who are tasked with safeguarding it South Africa has no legal framework to govern artificial intelligence (AI) use in alternative dispute resolution (ADR) proceedings, placing at risk the preservation of the principles of fairness, accountability, transparency and confidentiality when machines join the table. To offer much-needed direction for parties and tribunals integrating AI into adjudications and arbitration, the Association of Arbitrators (Southern Africa) (AASA) issued AI guidelines in May 2025 on the use of AI tools in this environment. AI tools are already embedded in arbitration proceedings in South Africa and are assisting with numerous legal tasks. Such tasks include collating and sequencing complex case facts and chronologies; managing documents and expediting the review of large volumes of content; conducting legal research and sourcing precedents; drafting text (for example, legal submissions or procedural documents); and facilitating real-time translation or transcription during hearings. While the new AI guidelines are not exhaustive nor a substitute for legal advice, they provide a helpful framework to promote responsible AI use, protect the integrity of proceedings and balance innovation with ethical awareness and risk-management. As a starting point, the guidelines stress the importance of parties reaching agreement upfront on the use of AI, including whether the arbitrator or tribunal has the power to issue directives regarding their use. The use of AI in arbitration proceedings can easily result in confidentiality and data security risks. One of the key advantages of arbitration is the confidentiality of the proceedings that it offers, as opposed to public court proceedings. This can be threatened by irresponsible use of AI by the parties or the tribunal, and expose the parties to risk. The use of AI tools can also result in technical limitations and wavering reliability. AI tools can produce flawed or 'hallucinated' results, especially in complex or novel fact patterns. This can lead to misleading outputs or fabricated references. AI tools are well known to fabricate case law references to answer legal questions posed to them. The AI guidelines highlight core principles that should be upheld whenever AI is used. These include that tribunals and arbitrators must be accountable and must not cede their adjudicative responsibilities to software. Humans ultimately bear responsibility for the outcome of a dispute. Ensuring confidentiality and security is also a key principle. For example, public AI models sometimes use user inputs for further 'training', which raises the risk that sensitive information could inadvertently be exposed. The need for transparency and disclosure is also important and parties and tribunals should consider whether AI usage needs to be disclosed to all participants. Finally, fairness in decision-making is paramount. There is a risk of underlying biases or inaccuracies in AI-generated outputs due to training data biases. Human oversight of any AI-driven analysis is indispensable to ensure just and equitable results. The guidelines advise tribunals to adopt a transparent approach to AI usage throughout proceedings, whether deployed by the tribunal itself or by the parties. Tribunals should also consider obtaining explicit agreement on whether, and how, AI-based tools may be used and determine upfront if disclosure of the use of AI tools is required. Safeguarding confidentiality should be considered upfront and throughout the proceedings, and agreement should be reached on what information can be shared with what AI tools to ensure parties are protected. During hearings, any AI-driven transcription or translation services should be thoroughly vetted to preserve both accuracy and confidentiality. Equal access to AI tools for all parties should be ensured so that no party is prejudiced. Ultimately, the arbitrator's or adjudicator's independent professional judgment must determine the outcome of any proceeding, even if certain AI-generated analyses or texts help shape the final award. As disputes become ever more data-intensive and as technological solutions proliferate, parties, counsel and tribunals must consider how best to incorporate AI tools into their processes. The guidelines affirm that human adjudicators remain the ultimate decision-makers. Vanessa Jacklin-Levin is a partner and Rachel Potter a senior associate at Bowmans South Africa.

The Herald
5 hours ago
- The Herald
Inflation expectations drop sharply in quarterly survey
The SARB, which commissions the survey, takes inflation expectations into account when taking its monetary policy decisions. 'The second-quarter survey reflects a broad-based and significant decline in the inflation expectations ... This decline was present among all three social groups and for the entire forecast horizon,' the Bureau for Economic Research, which conducts the survey, said in a report. The SARB targets inflation of 3%-6% but has been pushing to lower the target. Its preference is for a 3% objective, it said at its last policy meeting in May, when it cut its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.25%. Consumer inflation was 2.8% year on year in May , the third month in a row it has been below 3%. The SARB's next monetary policy announcement is scheduled for July 31. The survey also showed analysts, business people and trade unions had become more pessimistic about economic growth, on average expecting growth of 0.9% this year whereas they had predicted growth of 1.2% in the last survey. Africa's biggest economy expanded just 0.1% in the first quarter of 2025, dragged down by a poor performance by its mining and manufacturing sectors. Reuters

The Herald
6 hours ago
- The Herald
Durban has cheapest grocery basket — but families still can't afford to fill it
Nationally, food prices dipped slightly month-on-month, down R23.46 from May though households are still paying R190.36 more than in June 2024. The index said that foods that rose by 5% or more included onions which increased by 9% and beef, by 5%. The Absa Agri Trends report said the spike in onion prices followed export-driven demand and limited local supply earlier this year. 'Market analysts note that onion prices are expected to decline after record increases from March and April. Prices increased to record highs due to heightened onion demand, specifically exports, and lowered local supply,' said Absa. Beef prices are also climbing due to supply disruptions caused by a recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease at one of South Africa's largest cattle feedlots. Other items that recorded increases of 2% or more include: White sugar (+2%) Chicken gizzards (+4%) Chicken livers (+2%) Beef liver (+3%) Wors (+4%) Carrots (+2%) Tinned pilchards (+2%) Stock cubes (+2%) The index also showed a few fruit and vegetables, including potatoes, green peppers, butternut and bananas, registered a fall in prices. Staples such as rice, sugar beans and brown bread also became more affordable. Dairy and protein items like full cream milk, polony and fish recorded small declines. The rising cost of food continues to outpace the earnings of low-income households. The National Minimum Wage (NMW) is R28.79 per hour, which equates to R4,606.40 for a 20-day working month. However, most workers use their wages to support families, not just themselves. 'For black South African workers, one wage typically must support four people. Dispersed in a worker's family of four people, the NMW is R1,151.60 per person. This is below the upper-bound poverty line of R1,634 per person per month,' said the PMBEJD. In June, the average cost of a nutritionally adequate food basket for a family of four was R3,809.26, nearly 83% of the full monthly minimum wage. The report said it costs R970.89 per month to feed one child a basic nutritious diet. The Child Support Grant of R560 falls 30% below the food poverty line of R796 and 42% below the amount needed to feed a child adequately. 'Over the past month, the average cost to feed a child a basic nutritious diet decreased by R8.77. Year-on-year, the cost increased by R35.80,' said the index. In addition to food, households are feeling pressure from rising hygiene product prices. The Household Domestic and Personal Hygiene Index rose by R11.96 month-on-month and R11.81 year-on-year, bringing the average cost of basic hygiene products to R1,041.47 in June. TimesLIVE