Why the Blackhawks are staying the course and not rushing Kyle Davidson's rebuild

New York Times

2 days ago

Chicago Blackhawks general manager Kyle Davidson has shown no signs of steering away from the rebuild plan he started three years ago.
If anything, with some roster changes — especially trading Seth Jones — he's dug deeper into his attempt to structure his team around the NHL Draft and player development. Three years from now, which might be a realistic timeline for the Blackhawks to be competitive again, Davidson's roster could be almost entirely players who have come through the prospect pipeline, plus Ryan Donato, Tyler Bertuzzi and Spencer Knight. There are no guarantees those three players will be with the team, either. Fans can disagree with Davidson's plan, but this is how it works. Time is an essential part of it.
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Of course, there are also no guarantees that Davidson will be allowed to see the plan through. Some factors are out of his control.
First and foremost are the fans. Not everyone has to like the plan — and one look at social media shows not everyone does — but the Blackhawks need fans to buy tickets and jerseys, watch on TV, and just generally financially support them. If the Blackhawks' United Center attendance were closer to the 12,000 fans they drew in the 2006-07 season, while simultaneously getting less TV viewership and revenue, you can bet Blackhawks chairman and CEO Danny Wirtz would be telling Davidson to be more aggressive to win now.
But there aren't any indications that the Blackhawks' business is struggling. Wirtz said in March that the team's 'metrics that would sort of indicate brand health are still in a really good place.'
Attendance is down from the Stanley Cup years, but it's still near the top of the league. The Blackhawks are in a place where they likely can increase season ticket prices while still also increasing season ticket sales. Their centennial-year celebration will undoubtedly help juice that, too. TV viewership was a disaster last season, but they're hopeful that's behind them with CHSN's Comcast carriage and a viewership increase when their roster got younger last season. Connor Bedard's presence alone is taking care of merchandise sales.
So Wirtz doesn't seem to have financial reasons to accelerate Davidson's rebuild. He also doesn't seem to have philosophical reasons. Wirtz has said many times that he supports Davidson's plan and has the patience for it. There's no way Davidson would be going about this offseason as he is — the Blackhawks are essentially done making moves — without Wirtz's blessing. On paper, the Blackhawks are likely somewhere between last season's 61 points and being a 75-point team. In the standings, that probably puts them between 29th and last place among the NHL's 32 teams. There's no reason for Davidson to spin the current roster's projection to Wirtz, either. The Blackhawks are likely heading toward their fourth consecutive top-five draft pick next year, and because of Wirtz's trust, Davidson's job security remains as strong as ever.
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Of course, Davidson has to show progress. It's all relative, though. Midway through last season, there was a growing sense that Davidson might need to take a more aggressive approach this offseason, given the combination of coach Luke Richardson's firing, the Winter Classic embarrassment, young players' growing pains (especially Bedard) and CHSN's dismal ratings.
That changed by season's end as Connor Bedard's production took off, Oliver Moore, Ryan Greene and Sam Rinzel signed out of college and jumped into the NHL, and Frank Nazar and Artyom Levshunov arrived from Rockford. The Blackhawks' young players shifted the narrative and increased optimism for the future.
Again, Wirtz is the measure of all that. He could see and feel the positive momentum.
'I do think the bigger picture is starting to resonate with fans that I think gives us a lot of hope and optimism, regardless of what's happening in front of us and specifically with the standings,' he said.
This season's goal is probably more of the same.
While it may be unrealistic for the Blackhawks to rocket up the standings, their progress can be gauged in so many other ways. Davidson's confidence to largely stand pat in the offseason and go forward with a lineup filled with so many young players is one indicator. The individual development of Nazar, Bedard, Levshunov, Rinzel, Moore, Greene and others down the line is another. How those players perform together in new coach Jeff Blashill's system is yet another.
Next season won't always be pretty. The Blackhawks are likely to score more than they have in recent years, but they could also give up more goals. But if the good vibes from late last season can stick around, the Blackhawks will be pleased with their direction.
More young players will join that mix, too. It wouldn't be shocking if Anton Frondell can earn a spot out of training camp and stick with the Blackhawks this season. Nick Lardis may not break camp in the NHL, but he could be in Chicago by the season's end. Sacha Boisvert could easily sign out of college and end the season in the NHL. By the 2026-27 season, Roman Kantserov will likely be in the NHL after coming over from Russia. And you never know what could happen if Chicago gets another top-five draft pick in 2026.
All of this brings us to the elements Davidson can control.
Drafting and development are vital. Davidson has accumulated enough draft picks that not everyone has to hit, but he still has to hit on enough of them. The Blackhawks need stars and a core to win at the highest level. Bedard and Alex Vlasic are probably the only sure core pieces right now. Nazar is trending that way. Rinzel looks like he could grow into that this season. Wyatt Kaiser showed encouraging signs late last season. Over the next few seasons, the Blackhawks will have much more information on what they have and what they need.
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Davidson has expressed a willingness to acquire key players who could help the Blackhawks in the short- and long-term, but he hasn't taken action. He was asked again Tuesday about giving Bedard a star-caliber linemate.
'Well, you're always looking for that type of player,' Davidson said. 'You're always looking for good players in the marketplace — they just come up very seldomly. And when you do, you act aggressively. And I feel we've reacted accordingly. Again, doesn't always work out, and so you move on.
'But having said that, if we look internally, I think there's a number of players that are coming that can fill those roles. That doesn't mean you don't proactively look out in the marketplace. It's just (that) they're so few and far between when they are available, so you have to be very aggressive when they do (become available). And doesn't always work out that way. But I think the most sure way of finding those players is developing them yourself. And so that's what we'll do until a new opportunity arises.'
The takeaway from that: Davidson is unlikely to pursue that type of player now. To be fair, those players don't seem to want to come to Chicago right now, either. Mitch Marner wasn't interested this offseason. Jake Guentzel wasn't last offseason. On the other hand, Davidson doesn't know what he has in his system yet. He's hopeful he already has those types of players and they just need time to develop. We'll see. Three years from now, if the Blackhawks are where they think they can be and someone like Brady Tkachuk hits the open market, maybe there will be mutual interest.
Davidson can also control contracts. The salary cap is going to be a challenge for the Blackhawks in the next couple of years. They acquired Shea Weber's contract at the trade deadline to ensure they meet the $70.6 million cap floor this upcoming season. They acquired André Burakovsky this offseason in part because his $5.5 million cap hit helps them over the next two seasons (the cap floor increases to $104 million in 2026-27). As the Blackhawks trend younger and younger, they will have more entry-level contracts and more obstacles to reaching the cap floor.
Davidson has to reach the cap floor. But to succeed in the long term, building the type of roster he desires, he has to make sure the contracts he signs now and in the future all fit together in the big picture. From Vlasic's extension last offseason to extensions for Bedard and Nazar, and later Levshunov and company, cap hits will likely determine the fate of this rebuild.
Add up all of those things in and out of Davidson's control, and it's clear that a lot has to go his way for the Blackhawks to eventually win big. Of course, that's the case with most rebuilds. Davidson's strategy requires a lot of losing and growing pains, but it's all with the intent of sustaining success afterward.
As of today, the Blackhawks plan to see that through.
(Photo of Kyle Davidson: Michael Reaves / Getty Images)