Ten questions (that don't involve Caitlin Clark) about the WNBA's second half
There is much to resolve before the 2025 postseason tips off, not including that groin injury to a Fever star that was the talk of the town in Indianapolis. Here are 10 questions for the second half of the season, starting with the top of the league's standings.
1. Who will challenge Napheesa Collier for MVP?
Collier continued her months-long dominance with a WNBA record 36 points in the All-Star Game, captaining her team to a victory (which included the first All-Star triple-double in league history, from Skylar Diggins). She is the reigning defensive player of the year, finished second in MVP voting, launched a new league, won MVP of that league and the one-on-one competition, and she is now the heavy favorite to capture one of the few trophies that still elude her.
A few familiar faces stand in Collier's way: A'ja Wilson and Breanna Stewart. The winners of five of the last seven MVP trophies are both in the top five in scoring, blocks and win shares. Wilson has been better on the glass for the Las Vegas Aces, while Stewart is leading a winning team, the Liberty. Alyssa Thomas is also making a charge for the award after missing five games with the Phoenix Mercury earlier in the season. The defensive Swiss Army knife also leads the WNBA in assists.
The real question isn't so much if any of them will swipe the MVP from Collier, but rather if their team can prevent Collier from getting the coveted finals MVP. The Lynx are still the favorites, but it isn't by a commanding margin. If either the Liberty or the Mercury can bring Emma Meesseman over, the title picture changes considerably.
2. Can the Aces figure things out?
After having four All-Stars each of the last two seasons, it was strange to see Las Vegas represented by two players in Indianapolis who combined for four points in the game. Neither Wilson nor Jackie Young is really to blame for the Aces' struggles thus far — though Young improving her 3-point shooting (30.3 percent in 2025) would help — but it doesn't change that Las Vegas is falling out of relevance despite rostering arguably the best player in the world.
The Aces lost a significant amount of veteran championship experience (players and coaches) in the offseason, including Kelsey Plum, Alysha Clark, Sydney Colson, Natalie Nakase and Tyler Marsh. The only way to avoid that regression was for the title-winning core to play up to its potential, and Chelsea Gray no longer reaches the 'Point Gawd' highs she did two years ago since her foot injury. Las Vegas has already wasted its big trade bullet, so unless Meesseman is on her way to the Aces, maybe this is just who the Aces are: a playoff team … but an early out.
3. How will Cameron Brink's return impact the Sparks?
The addition of Plum and the arrival of coach Lynne Roberts have transformed the offense in L.A. After finishing 10th or worse in offensive rating each of the last four seasons, the Sparks sit in sixth at the midseason mark. The problem is the other end, where L.A. provides minimal resistance at the point of attack and in the paint.
Brink, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft, was a multi-time Pac-12 defensive player of the year and an effective rim protector even in 15 games as a rookie, averaging 2.3 blocks per contest. She is 13 months removed from the ACL tear that cost her most of her first season and has been practicing, though not with contact. The Sparks probably need to be a middle-of-the-pack defensive team to make a playoff run (they're currently 10th in defensive rating), and Brink is their best hope of raising their defensive ceiling.
4. Will Washington pivot toward the future?
The Mystics improbably sit in seventh in the standings, one game up on ninth-place Golden State. They have a realistic chance of making the playoffs if they want to, but should they? The front office of general manager Jamila Wideman and president Michael Winger was opportunistic in moving on from veterans (Ariel Atkins and Karlie Samuelson) in the offseason, and they could strike again by moving newly minted All-Star Brittney Sykes. That removal of playmaking and rim pressure would cost Washington wins but help it get into the lottery of another deep class. It's worth noting that the lottery is the top five picks in 2026, and the worst playoff team would pick eighth thanks to the entrances of expansion teams (the Toronto Tempo and Portland Fire) into the league.
Although its initial moves suggest Washington was planning for a deep reveal and wants to add a top draft pick, perhaps the early success has convinced Winger and company otherwise — that playing meaningful games will help the young core more. Either way, the Mystics hold a lot of cards.
5. Does Dallas reset around Paige Bueckers?
The Wings were measured in their public preseason expectations, stating that their goal was to build a culture that prompts players to return rather than win games. It wouldn't be surprising if they started selling off veterans. Arike Ogunbowale is having the least efficient season of her career (40.7 effective field-goal percentage) and would be hard to move in-season on a max contract at the nadir of her value. However, perhaps DiJonai Carrington could fetch a draft asset if she is healthy. Carrington has significant playoff experience and would be an ideal third guard in a postseason rotation.
6. How will the players' union keep its public messaging going?
The union took advantage of a unique opportunity at All-Star Weekend to get its members on the same page and perform a collective action. Now, the body of players splinters across the country with just over three months left before the CBA expires. Individual teams wearing 'Pay Us What You Owe Us' shirts won't resonate like the league's best players doing so together in the spotlight. So what comes next?
Union president Nneka Ogwumike didn't have a lot of specifics about what that will look like. 'We're going to do what we can to continue to stay intact, engaged,' she said. 'Moving forward, we're just going to have to do our best to talk online, see what we can do as everyone's getting into the depths of their season.' The players have been intentional and creative thus far at engaging the fans in their favor. Perhaps the fans start booing owners or making public appearances for Cathy Engelbert uncomfortable. It would be strange for the CBA noise to die down until the season is over, but the way it will manifest is entirely up in the air.
7. Can Golden State continue its surprising pace?
Even after losing three consecutive games heading into the break, the Valkyries are one game behind the eighth spot in the standings. The second-worst 3-point shooting team in the WNBA also welcomes Iliana Rupert, a stretch five who has experience playing with Nakase in Las Vegas, to help resolve one of their issues. Golden State inspires confidence because of its defense, but at what point is there enough film for teams to adapt? The Valkyries would be the first expansion team in league history to make the playoffs, and they have veterans who expect to get there.
8. Will any players miss games with technical foul accumulation?
Last season, Caitlin Clark was one technical foul away from an automatic suspension and required a de-escalation committee to keep her away from referees. This season, Clark's injuries have kept her from playing enough games to rack up fouls, but others are testing the limits. And as the chorus of complaints about officiating grows, it seems likely that there will be enough confrontations between players and referees. Angel Reese is two technicals away from triggering an automatic suspension (the new limit is eight in a 44-game season), and Shakira Austin has accumulated five techs. If Reese is suspended for a game as the Sky fight for a playoff berth, it would open another conversation about the league's reffing, especially since four of her violations were double technicals.
9. Which injury could most impact the playoff picture?
Thomas is holding down the fort in Phoenix with Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper out, while Stewart is performing extraordinary feats in New York with Jonquel Jones out. Neither the Mercury's nor the Liberty's record has suffered in those absences, but keep an eye on Atlanta. Rhyne Howard is scheduled to be evaluated at the end of the month, and in that stretch, the Dream have a doozy of a road trip at Las Vegas, Phoenix (on a back-to-back) and then Minnesota. They also close out the month with another back-to-back that ends in Dallas. Atlanta is neck-and-neck with Seattle for the fourth spot in the standings, and though home court isn't as critical this year in the 1-1-1 first round format, hosting would still be preferable.
10. Where do the 'Stud Budz' go from here?
The 'Stud Budz' were the viral stars of All-Star Weekend, with everyone trying to get on their 72-hour stream (or consciously avoiding it). Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman highlighted the league's queer culture in an authentic format that featured everyone from their fellow All-Stars to the commissioner and even spilled some news in the process. The breakfast meeting that resulted in the players' union Saturday night shirts was teased on the stream, as Ogwumike came to wake up the Budz.
With the season back, Williams and Hiedeman can't realistically participate in days-long streams, and their casual conversations would feel quaint after their All-Star bender. Whatever format the duo pursues, they have already proven that every type of player in the WNBA is marketable, no matter their sexuality or if they present more feminine or masculine. Maybe that opens a door for younger players who are even more well-versed in optimizing social media.
This article originally appeared in The Athletic.
Minnesota Lynx, New York Liberty, Seattle Storm, Los Angeles Sparks, Washington Mystics, Atlanta Dream, Chicago Sky, Connecticut Sun, Indiana Fever, Dallas Wings, Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury, Golden State Valkyries, WNBA
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