
China blasts ‘spineless' plan to sell Panama Canal ports to BlackRock
A commentary published by the state-owned Ta Kung Pao newspaper and reposted on the website of China's Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office on Thursday sent shares in CK Hutchison (CKH), the Hong Kong-based owner of the ports, plummeting by more than 6% on Friday.
Observers say it was a sign that some investors are concerned the deal may not ultimately go through, if Beijing objects.
'I'm not aware that any approval from Chinese regulators is required given CKH is retaining all of its existing Chinese ports,' Dan Baker, a senior equity analyst for Morningstar, told CNN. 'Of course, there is some chance that other influences may be brought to bear on the company that might put the deal at risk. The market seems to be pricing in some chance of this.'
CNN has reached out to the conglomerate for comment.
Last week, a group of investors led by BlackRock said it would spend $22.8 billion to buy the ports of Balboa and Cristobal on either end of the canal from CK Hutchison. The consortium also agreed to buy CK Hutchison's controlling interest in 43 other ports comprising 199 berths in 23 countries. They said the deal is an 'agreement in principle.'
US President Donald Trump said during the lead-up to his inauguration and since taking office that he intended to 'take back' the Panama Canal from Panama, which took over control of the crucial international waterway in 1999 under a treaty negotiated with the United States 20 years earlier. He cited Chinese ownership of some of the port operations as a sign that China was now running the canal.
When announced last week, the deal was seen as an expedient way for CK Hutchison — a global conglomerate backed by Li Ka-shing, long famed for being one of Hong Kong's savviest investors — to get rid of a political hot potato while fetching a good price from BlackRock and company.
The group said in a filing to the Hong Kong stock exchange that it expected to receive cash proceeds of more than $19 billion from the sale, an amount well above what analysts estimated the ports were worth.
But Thursday's scathing commentary from a newspaper closely aligned with the ruling Communist Party could throw a spanner in the works. It called out CK Hutchison, accusing it of 'spineless groveling,' 'profit-seeking' and 'disregarding national interests and national justice, and betraying and selling out all Chinese people.'
'Faced with such a major event and a matter of great justice, the relevant company should think twice … and think carefully about what position and side it should stand on,' it added.
The Panama Canal was constructed by the US in the early years of the 20th century and completed in 1914. For most of that century, it was operated by the US, before the Carter Administration negotiated its handover to Panama in a controversial treaty opposed by many Republicans at the time.
The 51-mile canal is key to both the movement of international trade and US military vessels. About 4% of the world's maritime trade and more than 40% of US container traffic traverses the canal.
Since its handover in 1999, the canal itself has been operated by Panama, not the Chinese, despite Trump's stated concerns.
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Yahoo
23 minutes ago
- Yahoo
FTSE 100 LIVE: Stocks slip as traders digest earnings and await eurozone GDP data
The FTSE 100 (^FTSE) and European stocks slipped on Wednesday morning as traders digest a slew of earnings reports in London, and await the latest eurozone GDP data. Also in focus is the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve, due this evening. Fed chair Jerome Powell has been under intense pressure from president Donald Trump to reduce rates. Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said: "Powell won't be bowing down to Trump's demands to cut rates, so expect the chair to instead lay some groundwork for December rather than September. "If they do need to move sooner than, it will be because of the labour market – key US jobs numbers on Friday will be more important this week. So far the labour market data looks good but we can seen signs of weakness appearing." Microsoft (MSFT) is set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, with Wall Street looking for the software giant to offer up solid growth in its AI and cloud businesses. London's benchmark index (^FTSE) was 0.4% lower in early trade Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) dipped 0.3% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris was treading water The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was down 0.2% Wall Street is set for a positive start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all in the green The pound was 0.1% up against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3362 Follow along for live updates throughout the day: US-India trade deal not finalised, says Trump Donald Trump has suggested that India could be hit with a tariff rate of 20-25%, although he cautioned that the final rate had not yet been finalised as both sides are still negotiating ahead of Friday's deadline. "India is my friend," the US president said. "They ended the war with Pakistan at my deal with India is not finalised. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country...". However, he cautioned that the tariff rate has not yet been decided as negotiations continue. Trump has expressed his desire to speak with prime minister Narendra Modi before giving the final nod to the trade agreement, sources familiar with the development told 5WH. Negotiations for the deal have concluded, with the final draft awaiting Trump's approval for more than a week. The pact has received endorsements from key officials on both sides — U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. HSBC launches $3bn share buyback despite second-quarter profit plunge Pre-tax profits at Europe's largest lender HSBC (HSBA.L) plunged 29% year-on-year to $6.3bn (£4.7bn) in its second quarter, mostly on account of impairment charges related to its investment in China's Bank of Communications ( and exposure to Hong Kong real estate. The bank recorded a $2.1bn impairment on its long-standing investment in Bank of Communications, adding to a $3bn charge taken earlier this year. The latest writedown includes a $1.1bn loss from a private placement of shares by the Chinese state-owned bank that diluted HSBC's stake. Expected credit losses rose by $900m year-on-year to $1.9bn, due in part to mounting stress in Hong Kong's property sector. Group CEO Georges Elhedery also cited rising macroeconomic risks. 'Structural challenges to the global economy have caused uncertainty and market volatility,' he said, referencing 'broad-based tariffs' and 'fiscal vulnerabilities.' He added: 'This is complicating the inflation and interest rate outlook, creating greater uncertainty. Even before tariffs take effect, trade disruptions are reshaping the economic landscape.' Operating expenses rose 10% compared with the same quarter last year, driven by restructuring and higher investment in technology, the bank said. Net interest income — the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was $8.5bn. Revenue for the first half of 2025 fell $3.2bn to $34.1bn, primarily reflecting the group's exit from its operations in Canada and Argentina. Read the full article here Asia and US overnight Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.05% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.2% up by the end of the session. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China were continuing talks on maintaining their current trade truce before it expires in two weeks' time. He said another 90-day extension, which had been indicated by China's delegation, was an option but that the final decision lay with Trump. National Economic Council Chair Hassett said Trump would see the final details on the China talks today. In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 0.7% on the day, buoyed by hopes of a US trade agreement prior to the August 1 deadline. Across the pond on Wall Street, stocks retreated, with the the S&P 500 (^GSPC) losing 0.5%, ending a run six consecutive record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.4% lower and the Dow Jones (^DJI) also fell 0.5%. It came as Tuesday was a busy day for US data, which sent a decent signal on the state of the US economy. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence index came in stronger than expected at 97.2 (vs 96.0), while inflation expectations continued to reverse their spike earlier in the year. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a strong rally, as 2-year yields fell -5.8bps, while 10-year (-9.1bps) and 30-year (-10.2bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines since early June. Coming up Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy. Looking ahead to today, the main event will be the Fed rate decision at 19:00 LDN time. Before the decision, the main data releases will be US GDP, ADP employment change and personal consumption. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone flash GDPs and consumer confidence. On the earnings side, we will hear from two of the Mag-7 with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the US close. Other US results include Qualcomm and Ford, while in Europe the highlights include Airbus, BAE, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Here's a snapshot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: HSBC, Rio Tinto, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, Oakley, Banco Santander, Sage, Aston Martin Lagonda, Foxtons 10am: Eurozone GDP growth rate 10am: Eurozone economic sentiment index 1:30pm: US GDP growth rate 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales 3.30pm: US Crude Oil Inventories 7pm: US Federal Reserve decisionUS-India trade deal not finalised, says Trump Donald Trump has suggested that India could be hit with a tariff rate of 20-25%, although he cautioned that the final rate had not yet been finalised as both sides are still negotiating ahead of Friday's deadline. "India is my friend," the US president said. "They ended the war with Pakistan at my deal with India is not finalised. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country...". However, he cautioned that the tariff rate has not yet been decided as negotiations continue. Trump has expressed his desire to speak with prime minister Narendra Modi before giving the final nod to the trade agreement, sources familiar with the development told 5WH. Negotiations for the deal have concluded, with the final draft awaiting Trump's approval for more than a week. The pact has received endorsements from key officials on both sides — U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. Donald Trump has suggested that India could be hit with a tariff rate of 20-25%, although he cautioned that the final rate had not yet been finalised as both sides are still negotiating ahead of Friday's deadline. "India is my friend," the US president said. "They ended the war with Pakistan at my deal with India is not finalised. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country...". However, he cautioned that the tariff rate has not yet been decided as negotiations continue. Trump has expressed his desire to speak with prime minister Narendra Modi before giving the final nod to the trade agreement, sources familiar with the development told 5WH. Negotiations for the deal have concluded, with the final draft awaiting Trump's approval for more than a week. The pact has received endorsements from key officials on both sides — U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. HSBC launches $3bn share buyback despite second-quarter profit plunge Pre-tax profits at Europe's largest lender HSBC (HSBA.L) plunged 29% year-on-year to $6.3bn (£4.7bn) in its second quarter, mostly on account of impairment charges related to its investment in China's Bank of Communications ( and exposure to Hong Kong real estate. The bank recorded a $2.1bn impairment on its long-standing investment in Bank of Communications, adding to a $3bn charge taken earlier this year. The latest writedown includes a $1.1bn loss from a private placement of shares by the Chinese state-owned bank that diluted HSBC's stake. Expected credit losses rose by $900m year-on-year to $1.9bn, due in part to mounting stress in Hong Kong's property sector. Group CEO Georges Elhedery also cited rising macroeconomic risks. 'Structural challenges to the global economy have caused uncertainty and market volatility,' he said, referencing 'broad-based tariffs' and 'fiscal vulnerabilities.' He added: 'This is complicating the inflation and interest rate outlook, creating greater uncertainty. Even before tariffs take effect, trade disruptions are reshaping the economic landscape.' Operating expenses rose 10% compared with the same quarter last year, driven by restructuring and higher investment in technology, the bank said. Net interest income — the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was $8.5bn. Revenue for the first half of 2025 fell $3.2bn to $34.1bn, primarily reflecting the group's exit from its operations in Canada and Argentina. Read the full article here Pre-tax profits at Europe's largest lender HSBC (HSBA.L) plunged 29% year-on-year to $6.3bn (£4.7bn) in its second quarter, mostly on account of impairment charges related to its investment in China's Bank of Communications ( and exposure to Hong Kong real estate. The bank recorded a $2.1bn impairment on its long-standing investment in Bank of Communications, adding to a $3bn charge taken earlier this year. The latest writedown includes a $1.1bn loss from a private placement of shares by the Chinese state-owned bank that diluted HSBC's stake. Expected credit losses rose by $900m year-on-year to $1.9bn, due in part to mounting stress in Hong Kong's property sector. Group CEO Georges Elhedery also cited rising macroeconomic risks. 'Structural challenges to the global economy have caused uncertainty and market volatility,' he said, referencing 'broad-based tariffs' and 'fiscal vulnerabilities.' He added: 'This is complicating the inflation and interest rate outlook, creating greater uncertainty. Even before tariffs take effect, trade disruptions are reshaping the economic landscape.' Operating expenses rose 10% compared with the same quarter last year, driven by restructuring and higher investment in technology, the bank said. Net interest income — the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was $8.5bn. Revenue for the first half of 2025 fell $3.2bn to $34.1bn, primarily reflecting the group's exit from its operations in Canada and Argentina. Read the full article here Asia and US overnight Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.05% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.2% up by the end of the session. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China were continuing talks on maintaining their current trade truce before it expires in two weeks' time. He said another 90-day extension, which had been indicated by China's delegation, was an option but that the final decision lay with Trump. National Economic Council Chair Hassett said Trump would see the final details on the China talks today. In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 0.7% on the day, buoyed by hopes of a US trade agreement prior to the August 1 deadline. Across the pond on Wall Street, stocks retreated, with the the S&P 500 (^GSPC) losing 0.5%, ending a run six consecutive record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.4% lower and the Dow Jones (^DJI) also fell 0.5%. It came as Tuesday was a busy day for US data, which sent a decent signal on the state of the US economy. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence index came in stronger than expected at 97.2 (vs 96.0), while inflation expectations continued to reverse their spike earlier in the year. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a strong rally, as 2-year yields fell -5.8bps, while 10-year (-9.1bps) and 30-year (-10.2bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines since early June. Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.05% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.2% up by the end of the session. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China were continuing talks on maintaining their current trade truce before it expires in two weeks' time. He said another 90-day extension, which had been indicated by China's delegation, was an option but that the final decision lay with Trump. National Economic Council Chair Hassett said Trump would see the final details on the China talks today. In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 0.7% on the day, buoyed by hopes of a US trade agreement prior to the August 1 deadline. Across the pond on Wall Street, stocks retreated, with the the S&P 500 (^GSPC) losing 0.5%, ending a run six consecutive record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.4% lower and the Dow Jones (^DJI) also fell 0.5%. It came as Tuesday was a busy day for US data, which sent a decent signal on the state of the US economy. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence index came in stronger than expected at 97.2 (vs 96.0), while inflation expectations continued to reverse their spike earlier in the year. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a strong rally, as 2-year yields fell -5.8bps, while 10-year (-9.1bps) and 30-year (-10.2bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines since early June. Coming up Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy. Looking ahead to today, the main event will be the Fed rate decision at 19:00 LDN time. Before the decision, the main data releases will be US GDP, ADP employment change and personal consumption. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone flash GDPs and consumer confidence. On the earnings side, we will hear from two of the Mag-7 with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the US close. Other US results include Qualcomm and Ford, while in Europe the highlights include Airbus, BAE, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Here's a snapshot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: HSBC, Rio Tinto, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, Oakley, Banco Santander, Sage, Aston Martin Lagonda, Foxtons 10am: Eurozone GDP growth rate 10am: Eurozone economic sentiment index 1:30pm: US GDP growth rate 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales 3.30pm: US Crude Oil Inventories 7pm: US Federal Reserve decision Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy. Looking ahead to today, the main event will be the Fed rate decision at 19:00 LDN time. Before the decision, the main data releases will be US GDP, ADP employment change and personal consumption. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone flash GDPs and consumer confidence. On the earnings side, we will hear from two of the Mag-7 with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the US close. Other US results include Qualcomm and Ford, while in Europe the highlights include Airbus, BAE, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Here's a snapshot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: HSBC, Rio Tinto, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, Oakley, Banco Santander, Sage, Aston Martin Lagonda, Foxtons 10am: Eurozone GDP growth rate 10am: Eurozone economic sentiment index 1:30pm: US GDP growth rate 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales 3.30pm: US Crude Oil Inventories 7pm: US Federal Reserve decision


Newsweek
23 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Trump Baby Accounts Could Create Generation of Millionaire Retirees
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A new federal savings initiative could dramatically reshape the financial future of millions of American children. Signed into law by President Donald Trump as part of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, "Trump accounts" promise to give babies born in the U.S. a $1,000 head start on building long-term wealth. With additional contributions from families and employers, and potentially decades of compounding investment growth, these accounts could have the potential to turn today's youngsters into retirement millionaires. But while the headline numbers are eye-catching, the real impact may lie in how families choose to use the funds—for college, a first home, or retirement—and what kind of financial support system exists around them. Here's how the program works, what it could grow into, and why some experts see it as the start of a generational wealth shift in America. What Are Trump Accounts? Each baby born in the U.S. between 2025 and 2028 who has a Social Security number will receive a one-time $1,000 deposit from the government into their Trump account. There are no income requirements to qualify. Parents, relatives, and employers can contribute up to $5,000 annually to each account. While contributions made before a child turns 18 are not tax-deductible, employer contributions—up to $2,500 per year—are excluded from taxable income. The saved money must be invested in low-cost mutual funds or ETFs that track a U.S. stock index, such as the S&P 500. For now, more stable investment options like bonds or cash are not on the table. The accounts will become available in July 2026, and no money can be withdrawn until the child turns 18 years old. "Currently, the Trump account functions similarly to a traditional retirement account," Scott Hefty, senior wealth manager and founding partner at Serae Wealth, told Newsweek. "It offers tax-advantaged growth and penalty-free withdrawals after age 59 and a half. However, there are several exceptions that allow for earlier use. These exceptions include education expenses, buying a first home, or starting a business." Hefty added that while some may prefer more flexibility, "the rules are in place because the government is offering a benefit in exchange for encouraging certain outcomes…This account reflects a broader shift in how Americans build wealth across generations. We are moving toward a model where families, employers, and the federal government each play a part." The policy follows on from similar initiatives in the U.S. and abroad designed to bolster the lifetime savings of new generations. In Germany, new early-start pensions with a government contribution are being rolled out for kids. Here at home, Connecticut offers an initial government savings deposit of $3,200, albeit only for low-income children. Composite image created by Newsweek of a retired couple, a stack of coins, a piggy bank and a baby. Composite image created by Newsweek of a retired couple, a stack of coins, a piggy bank and a baby. Photo-illustration by Newsweek/Getty How Much Can Be Saved? How much can be saved depends on whether contributions are made by the family of the child, and whether that child and/or their family/employers make contributions when they are an adult. The Internal Revenue Service is also expected to clarify tax rules around the savings before the accounts become available, which will impact overall savings. Based on an average return rate of 7 percent annually and the maximum $5,000 being invested every year, by the time a child reaches 65 years old, they could bank approximately $6,950,000 before tax—plenty of money to see them through a long and comfortable retirement. The simple fact of the matter is that to continue making the maximum $5,000 contributions every year means the parents of the child must be extremely financially secure, given that they may already be making contributions to their own savings funds, like 401(k)'s and general savings accounts. According to data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Americans saved only 4.5 percent of their disposable personal income in May 2025. In a more realistic scenario, where the family and/or account beneficiary save a consistent $1,000 per year in the account and leave it untouched until 65, it would result in a saving of $1,464,800—still, nothing to be disappointed about. If the $1,000 seeded from the government remains in the account with no contributions, by the time the account holder reaches 65, they will have around $93,380 to help them through later life. "That amount of money is a tremendous gift for a child, and opens up a lot of extra doors," Matt Hylland, a financial planner at Arnold and Mote Wealth Management, told Newsweek. "Perhaps they can be more comfortable taking a job in an industry they enjoy, even if it is lower paying. Or, it gives them the freedom to save for other non-retirement goals like a home down payment, or college savings for their children." College and Home Buying There's also the fact that plenty of savers with Trump accounts are unlikely to keep the money there all the way through to retirement, with many being likely to use the funds to pay for college expenses or to buy a home. As Hefty said, the account rules "reflect the overall goal of the program, which is to support long-term retirement preparedness." But he also acknowledged that the exceptions for earlier use—like education or first-home buying—align with key milestones in life.` Based on the same 7-percent compounding rate and the maximum annual contribution of $5,000, the account would be worth $194,856 by the time the child turns 18. In a more realistic scenario, where the parent has put away $1,000 into the account per year, this would drop to $55,831—which is still no small amount to help toward expensive college bills. The national average age to buy a home in the U.S. is now 38, according to a 2024 report by the National Association of Realtors. In this scenario, with a $1,000 seed and $1,000 contributions each year, there would be around $210,700—a hefty down payment, or in some cases, the total cost of a home in a more inexpensive area of the country. "If the seed contribution continues beyond 2028," Hylland said, "the potential for long-term impact grows even further." "Even a modest contribution, combined with the federal seed money, can be beneficial over time," he said. "I believe nearly every child who receives a Trump account will benefit in some way. The scale of that benefit will vary, but the baseline is an improvement compared to having no such account at all."


Newsweek
23 minutes ago
- Newsweek
Could Donald Trump's Push for Republicans To Redistrict Backfire?
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. As President Donald Trump and Republicans mull redrawing red-state congressional maps to benefit the GOP, experts weighed in about whether those efforts could backfire. Why It Matters Republicans in states like Ohio and Texas are poised to redraw their maps ahead of the 2026 midterm elections in an attempt to thwart Democratic gains in the House. Historically, the party in the White House loses seats during the midterms, and Democrats view Trump's declining approval rating as a boon in key districts. But Republicans' mid-decade redistricting plans threaten to limit Democrats' gains next November, fueling concern from the left, as well as calls for blue-leaning states like California to retaliate by redrawing their own maps in an escalating redistricting arms race. President Donald Trump attends a meeting in the White House in Washington on July 9, 2025. President Donald Trump attends a meeting in the White House in Washington on July 9, To Know Republicans are looking to pick up five seats in Texas, where Republicans already hold a 25-13 advantage in Congress. They could do so by targeting seats in south Texas, where Republicans have made inroads with Latino voters over the past few years, and by breaking up districts in the Houston and Dallas suburbs. They would do so by packing Democrat voters in as few districts as possible, while having Republican incumbents take on some new Democratic-leaning areas to reduce the number of blue districts. That means incumbent Republicans may win by smaller margins, but—if successful—would maximize the number of GOP-leaning districts. However, it runs the risk of creating what is known as a "dummymander" that backfires and benefits Democrats. That would happen if Republicans stretch themselves too thin in some districts, allowing Democrats to prevail, particularly during a "blue wave" like 2018. It is a concern for Republicans, who are eyeing Representative Lizzie Fletcher's Houston-area district and Representative Julie Johnson's Dallas-area district as potential redraw opportunities. However, other incumbents would need to take in some of those Democratic voters. The risk is that if 2026 is a blue wave, Democrats could hold onto those districts, as well as flip others that are presently more solidly Republican. Joshua Blank, who runs the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, told Newsweek that they are unlikely to "do anything that would result in serious exposure for its members, even if 2026 turns out to be a good year for Democrats." "The risk to Republicans is truly in their own hands," Blank said. "It's easy to imagine them effectively carving out 2 new seats, but as the number of new GOP seats increases, with the president wanting five new GOP seats, the amount of line shifting has to increase dramatically. Not only might this lead to unintended consequences, but it is also likely to result in more avenues for legal challenges that will delay or potentially halt the final implementation of the maps." Two south Texas districts—represented by Democratic Representatives Henry Cuellar and Vicente Gonzalez—are likely to be safer opportunities for the GOP, he said. "Regardless of whether or not you believe that south Texas is permanently moving towards the GOP, those seats are surrounded by solidly Republican districts that can shed reliably Republican voters without putting those members into newly competitive seats," he said. That's harder to accomplish in urban and suburban areas, where there are fewer reliable Republicans, he said. Shawn J. Donahue, professor of political science at the University of Buffalo and an expert on redistricting, told Newsweek it is possible that redraws could backfire, but that Republicans have been able to make fairly durable maps in recent history. North Carolina is one example he pointed to. Although the state is nearly evenly divided between Democrats and Republicans, the GOP managed to redraw the map to give themselves 10 safe districts, three safe Democratic districts and a competitive district, currently held by Democratic Representative Don Davis, though Trump also carried it at the presidential level. "Those 10 seats look pretty resilient," he said. "The question is how far do you try to push, packing one particular party to just a few seats. How much are you willing to spread out your own voters?" Missouri, Ohio May Be Safer Opportunities for GOP Redraws in Missouri and Ohio are fairly safe, Donahue said. In Missouri, Republicans are looking at redrawing the Fifth Congressional District, which contains Kansas City and is held by Democratic Representative Emanuel Cleaver, to become more Republican. They could stretch the more urban and Democratic parts of the district to include rural, conservative areas, he said. That is a similar tactic Tennessee Republicans used in Nashville. Although the city could sustain a Democratic district of its own, they divided it into three Republican districts mixed with conservative suburbs and rural areas. Ohio could pan out similarly, he said, as the Toldeo-based seat represented by Democratic Representative Marcy Kaptur is already tenuous if she opts not to run again. The Akron-based seat held by Representative Emilia Sykes could also be more easily redrawn, he said. Florida could be more difficult. Republicans made gains across the state last year and could make efforts to crack Tampa into several districts or redraw areas in the southern part of the state where Trump made inroads. But whether the state continues to get more conservative, or shifts back to be more competitive, is an open question that could determine how far Republicans can go. "If those areas are going to continue to become more Republican or stay where they were in 2024 or 2022, it's different than if some of those voters are going to be, 'We don't really like what's going on, so we're going to start voting Democratic again,'" he said. Democratic Opportunities to Strike Back Are Limited Another risk, on paper, is that Democratic states could retaliate by redrawing their own maps to be more Democratic-friendly. But states like New Jersey have laws on the books prohibiting mid-decade redistricting, while states like California have independent commissions. California Governor Gavin Newsom has said the state could redraw its maps. Donahue noted that lawmakers could implement a ballot measure earlier next year to achieve this. However, that may not necessarily pass in time for the midterms. New York similarly would need to cross legal hurdles that could make it difficult to redraw maps by 2027 but also face a political challenge, Donahue said. "Unless you're willing to draw districts that go from Manhattan to parts of upstate New York, one of the things that's tricky is that New York was a lot closer in 2024 than in 2020, so would you actually risk spreading your Democratic voters out too much?" he said. New York backed former Vice President Kamala Harris by only about 13 percentage points last November—down from former President Joe Biden's 23-point victory in 2020 and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's 22.5-point victory in 2016. Illinois has a similar problem. Democrats control the process in the state and already have a 14-3 map, but it also drifted rightward, so any redraw would run the risk of leaving Democratic incumbents in more vulnerable positions, Donahue said. What People Are Saying Shawn J. Donahue, professor of political science at the University of Buffalo, told Newsweek: "How willing are you to draw districts that have ridiculous looking lines? I mean, Democrats in Illinois didn't seem to have a problem with that and Republicans in Texas didn't seem to have a problem with it." Representative Eric Burlison, a Missouri Republican, told KCUR on redrawing the map: "I literally just got off the phone with the White House, and they do want that. And this is the first that I've heard it directly from them, because before that I heard it through rumors, through other people." Senator Elissa Slotkin, a Michigan Democrat, told Axios: "If they're going to go nuclear in Texas, I'm going to go nuclear in other places. I'm not going to fight with one arm tied behind my back. I don't want to do that, but if they're proposing to rig the game, we're going to get in that game and fight." President Donald Trump told reporters this month: "No, no, just a very simple redrawing. We pick up five seats. But we have a couple of other states where we will pick up seats also." What Happens Next The redistricting arms race will likely continue over the coming months, with Texas already being in a special session that will, in part, address redistricting. Ohio's redraw is also definitive, as the state is legally required to redo its map, but specifics about how it will play out are unclear.