3 Economic Events That Could Affect Your Portfolio This Week, June 9-13, 2025
Confident Investing Starts Here:
The week began on a positive note, losing some steam in the second half. The weakness in PMI reports – with the manufacturing activity contracting for a third month in a row and services activity shrinking for the first time in 11 months – infused some gloom. However, Friday saw stocks find their footing again on solid job gains, which allayed fears about an imminent economic downturn.
U.S. jobs growth stayed strong in May, climbing 139,000 with unemployment unchanged at 4.2%. Although the March and April reports were revised downward, May's report reassured investors, as it reflected a very gradual cooling of the labor market. Still, diving into the job report's details, a stronger-than-expected wage growth continues to put a floor under inflation. This supports the Federal Reserve's 'wait and see' stance, despite President Trump's demands for a cut.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, the chances of a June cut are nil, and July's rate decrease looks increasingly improbable. Prices in interest rate futures markets imply that investors expect two quarter-point rate cuts by year-end, with the first cut not expected until September.
Three Economic Events
Here are three key economic events that could affect your portfolio this week. For a full listing of additional economic reports, check out the TipRanks Economic Calendar.
» May's CPI and CPI ex. Food and Energy (Core CPI) – Wednesday, 06/11 – The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the two key measures of inflation (the other being the Personal Consumption Expenditures index, or PCE). Policymakers, businesses, and consumers closely monitor the CPI report, as it reflects price trends across the economy, shapes consumer spending and business sentiment, and directly influences the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions.
» May's Producer Price Index (PPI) and PPI ex. Food and Energy – Thursday, 06/12 – This report reflects input costs for producers and manufacturers. Since the PPI measures the cost of producing consumer goods – which ultimately affects retail prices – it is viewed as a leading indicator of inflationary pressures. As such, it often foreshadows the following month's CPI and plays a critical role in shaping inflation expectations among policymakers.
» June's Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index and UoM 5-year Consumer Inflation Expectations (preliminary readings) – Friday, 06/13 – These reports summarize consumer confidence and long-term inflation expectations in the U.S. Consumer confidence impacts spending, which accounts for roughly 70% of U.S. GDP. The inflation expectations component is closely monitored by policymakers and is factored into the Federal Reserve's Index of Inflation Expectations.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Starbucks CEO Brian Niccol promises a return to glory days: Opening Bid top takeaway
It's Federal Reserve interest rate decision day, with a side of earnings season madness. The Fed is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged. Chairman Jerome Powell — under pressure from President Trump — will undertake arguably his most important press conference after the decision. Investors will be keyed in on whether Powell signals a rate cut at the September meeting. If he doesn't, pros say stocks could pull back a bit from records. Attention will then turn to the Fed's Jackson Hole Economic Symposium on August 21-23. "The gap between the July and September meetings is the longest in the Fed's calendar of eight FOMC meetings per year. The long gap between July and September meetings means the Fed will see several months' worth of additional data and have plenty of opportunity to signal its intent in advance," Morgan Stanley chief US economist Michael Gapen said. Gapen continues to expect no rate cuts this year. Meanwhile, markets are readying to digest earnings from Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) after market close. Following strong earnings from Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), ServiceNow (NOW), and Netflix (NFLX), expectations are sky-high. However, it's the positive reaction in Starbucks (SBUX) shares that deserves a quick zoom in. Zoom in: Starbucks earnings lacked hype The Starbucks earnings release last night was tough on the eyes. It read as a giant in the middle of a major restructuring. Under CEO Brian Niccol — who's nearing the one-year mark as CEO — that reset has included bringing back condiment bars, retraining employees, rebuilding menu innovation, recasting the brand on TV, and figuring out the struggling China business. The toll of this investment period was evident in the quarter: Operating profit margins crashed in every business segment year over year. Overall operating margins plunged 660 basis points from a year ago. US same-store sales fell 2% on the back of a 4% traffic drop. EPS tanked 46% from a year ago. No guidance provided. "Unfortunately, I think there were some choices made before me that really set us back on our ability to create that great customer connection between our barista and customer and provide the type of customer service that the Starbucks brand, frankly, is known for," Niccol told me on Yahoo Finance's Opening Bid (watch above). Yet, investors are clinging to the positives Niccol noted during the earnings call. They include low double-digit percentage same-store sales growth at college locations, improved transaction trends in the US toward the end of the quarter, and a "wave" of beverage and food innovation over the next 12 months. It will also spend $500 million during the next year on increased labor investments — shy of Street whispers of about $1 billion. The company even teased the potential to reach peak operating margins again. "The valuation is steep, and we expect an uneven stock appreciation path, linked to traffic fluctuation. Yet, the initiatives in place make us optimistic that Starbucks will return to its past glory and deliver outsized returns to patient investors," Bernstein analyst Danilo Gargiulo said. Gargiulo reiterated an Outperform rating on Starbucks shares. The steep valuation — Starbucks boasts a forward P/E of 32 times — reflects hope that Niccol will bring back its past success. I get the optimism — I've covered Niccol since his days leading Taco Bell (YUM) and Chipotle (CMG). He knows his stuff and is probably the best restaurant CEO in the game. But at this point, investors should be questioning when the inflection moment is in Starbucks' business. It wasn't in the just-completed quarter. It will unlikely be the current quarter. Mix in the threat of high tariffs on coffee beans and cautious US consumers, and one has to wonder if the positive reaction to Starbucks' earnings is really correct. And if the valuation on the stock is too ... caffeinated. "We do believe we have the ability to get back to the performance we had pre-COVID. And we've really kind of used 2019 as kind of the guidepost of what we believe we should be back to earning from a financial standpoint," Niccol Sozzi is Yahoo Finance's Executive Editor and a member of Yahoo Finance's editorial leadership team. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email Click here for all of the latest retail stock news and events to better inform your investing strategy
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Solid US Economic Reports Boost the Dollar
The dollar index (DXY00) today extended this week's rally and is up by +0.59% at a 2-month high. Signs of strength in the US economy are boosting the dollar today after the July ADP employment change rose more than expected by the most in four months, and Q2 GDP expanded more than expected. Also, short covering is supporting the dollar ahead of the results of today's FOMC meeting, where the Fed is expected to keep interest rates unchanged. The US July ADP employment change rose +104,000, stronger than expectations of +76,000 and the largest increase in four months. Also, the Jun ADP employment change was revised upward to -23,000 from the previously reported -33,000. More News from Barchart Can Platinum Become Rich Person's Gold Again? Dollar Gains on Euro Weakness Over EU-US Tariff Deal Dollar Rallies on Trade Deal Optimism and Positive US Economic News Markets move fast. Keep up by reading our FREE midday Barchart Brief newsletter for exclusive charts, analysis, and headlines. US Q2 GDP rose +3.0% (q/q annualized), stronger than expectations of +2.6%. The Q2 core PCE price index rose +2.5% q/q, stronger than expectations of +2.3% q/q. US Jun pending home sales unexpectedly fell -0.8% m/m, weaker than expectations of a +0.2% m/m increase. In the latest tariff news, President Trump today said he will impose a tariff rate of 25% on India starting August 1 and suggested he would add an additional penalty over the country's energy purchases from Russia. Federal funds futures prices are discounting the chances for a -25 bp rate cut at 2% at today's FOMC meeting and 62% at the following meeting on September 16-17. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) today extended this week's losses and is down by -0.61% at a new 5-week low. Dollar strength today is undercutting the euro. Additionally, the negative carryover from Monday is weighing on the euro, following the announcement of the EU-US trade deal, which was seen as favoring the US, with 15% tariffs imposed on most EU goods. This could pose headwinds to the Eurozone economy due to the higher tariffs. Better-than-expected Eurozone economic news today on Q2 GDP and July economic confidence is supportive of the euro. Eurozone Q2 GDP rose +0.1% q/q and +1.4% y/y, stronger than expectations of unchanged m/m and +1.2% y/y. Eurozone July economic confidence rose +1.6 to a 5-month high of 95.8, stronger than expectations of 94.5. Swaps are pricing in a 13% chance of a -25 bp rate cut by the ECB at the September 11 policy meeting. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) today is up by +0.33%. The yen gave up overnight gains and fell to a 1.5-week low against the dollar after better-than-expected US economic news pushed the dollar higher. Losses in the yen accelerated today after T-note yields jumped. The yen initially moved higher in overnight trading after an 8.8 magnitude earthquake off the eastern coast of Russia prompted a tsunami warning for Tokyo Bay, which sparked some safe haven buying of the yen. The yen continues to be undercut by concerns that the LDP's loss of its majority in Japan's upper house in the July 20 elections may lead to fiscal deterioration in Japan's government finances, as the government boosts spending and implements tax cuts. August gold (GCQ25) today is down -20.00 (-0.60%), and September silver (SIU25) is down -0.481 (-1.26%). Precious metals are sliding today, with silver falling to a 1.5-week low. Dollar strength is undercutting metals prices today after the dollar index jumped to a 2-month high. Also, higher T-note yields are bearish for precious metals. In addition, today's stronger-than-expected US economic reports on July ADP employment and Q2 GDP are hawkish for Fed policy and may keep the Fed from cutting interest rates. Concerns that US tariff policy will undercut global growth are fueling some safe-haven demand for precious metals after President Trump today said he will impose a tariff rate of 25% on India starting August 1 and suggested he would add an additional penalty over the country's energy purchases from Russia. Precious metals continue to receive safe-haven support from geopolitical risks, including the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Sign in to access your portfolio
Yahoo
22 minutes ago
- Yahoo
LIVE: Wall Street rises as US economy grows faster than expected ahead of Fed rate decision
Wall Street stocks rose on Wednesday as the US economy grew much faster than expected in the second quarter of 2025. GDP grew at a 3% annualised rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted annualised GDP growth of 2.4%, after a surprise contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter as exporters rushed to get their products into the country ahead of tariffs. Imports count against a country's GDP. Meanwhile, the FTSE 100 (^FTSE) underperformed against its European peers as traders were unimpressed by weak results from the likes of Aston Martin (AML.L), HSBC (HSBA.L) and Taylor Wimpey (TW.L). Markets in Europe got a boost when data released in the morning showed unexpected signs of life in the eurozone economy. Gross domestic product (GDP) in the bloc grew 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, marginally better than the zero growth expected by economists. However, it was still a slowdown compared to the 0.6% growth seen in the first three months of 2025, when businesses had raced to get ahead of US tariffs by making more products and increasing exports to the country. Seasonally-adjusted GDP rose by 0.2% in the European Union (EU) in the second quarter of 2025, compared with the previous quarter. Year-on-year, growth eased a little, with the eurozone up 1.4% and the EU up 1.5%, both slightly below the pace seen previously. Also in focus today is the interest rate decision from the US Federal Reserve, due this evening. Fed chair Jerome Powell has been under intense pressure from president Donald Trump to reduce rates. Neil Wilson, UK investor strategist at Saxo Markets, said: "Powell won't be bowing down to Trump's demands to cut rates, so expect the chair to instead lay some groundwork for December rather than September. "If they do need to move sooner than, it will be because of the labour market – key US jobs numbers on Friday will be more important this week. So far the labour market data looks good but we can seen signs of weakness appearing." Microsoft (MSFT) is also set to report its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday, with Wall Street looking for the software giant to offer up solid growth in its AI and cloud businesses. London's benchmark index (^FTSE) was 0.3% lower in early afternoon trade Germany's DAX (^GDAXI) rose 0.1% and the CAC (^FCHI) in Paris was 0.5% in the green The pan-European STOXX 600 (^STOXX) was up 0.1% Wall Street is set for a positive start as S&P 500 futures (ES=F), Dow futures (YM=F) and Nasdaq futures (NQ=F) were all in the green The pound was 0.1% up against the US dollar (GBPUSD=X) at 1.3362 Follow along for live updates throughout the day: Best credit cards for air miles Credit cards aren't just about spending. They are also powerful tools that, when used wisely, can help you save money, manage debt and even earn rewards. Whether you're looking to cut down on interest payments, earn cashback on everyday purchases, rack up air miles for your next holiday, or avoid fees while traveling abroad, there's a credit card tailored to your needs. In this guide, we'll break down the best options on the market for balance transfers, purchases, cashback, air miles and travel spending. We'll show you how to use these cards to your advantage, ensuring you get the most value while avoiding common mistakes. Find out more here US economy grows faster than expected The US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest data released on Wednesday. US GDP grew at a 3% annualised rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted annualised GDP growth of 2.4%, after a surprise contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter as exporters rushed to get their products into the country ahead of tariffs. Imports count against a country's GDP. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, a fund manager, said: Where did GDP rise and fall most? The latest eurozone GDP reading was better than expected due to Spain leading the way with a 0.7% expansion. This was a result of solid consumer spending, a rebound in business investment and rising exports. "Spain is in another league, showing stubbornly robust dynamism. The moderate Q2 decline in Irish GDP suggests that there is ample room for further correction," Fabiani added. There was also faster-than-expected growth in France, the second-largest economy in the EU. France significantly outperformed expectations, growing 0.3% during the period, according to the preliminary data. This was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth — and higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Portugal and Estonia also delivered solid results, expanding 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the German economy contacted 0.1% in the second quarter of the year as companies adjusted to the impact of US president Donald Trump's tariffs. This marked the country's first contraction since mid-2024 due to weaker investment in machinery and construction. Economists had expected the decline in output from the EU's largest economy and biggest exporter, with the country's federal statistics agency revising down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%. Italy's GDP likewise shrunk 0.1% in the second quarter, reversing the 0.3% gain recorded in the first quarter and defying market expectations of a 0.2% increase. It was the country's first contraction since the second quarter of 2023. Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, added that the economies of Hungary and Czechia 'have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April', according to data published on Wednesday. Hungary's economy grew 0.4%, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the Czech economy saw growth slow to 0.2% from 0.8% in the first quarter. Eurozone economic growth slows to 0.1% in second quarter The eurozone economy grew 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, coming in marginally better than the zero growth expected by economists. However, it was still a slowdown compared with the 0.6% growth seen in the first three months of 2025, as businesses had raced to get ahead of US tariffs by making more products and increasing exports to the country. Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) also rose by 0.2% in the European Union in the second quarter of 2025, compared with the previous quarter. Year-on-year, growth eased a little, with the eurozone up 1.4% and the EU up 1.5%, both slightly below the pace previous pace. Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said: "Although the slowdown is to a large extent a by-product of a misleadingly healthy Q1 number, broad-based weakness across national data indicates that the economy lacks momentum, with only a handful of countries blowing into its sails." US VC funding surges by 87% in first half In the global venture capital (VC) funding arena, the US continues to assert its dominance, showcasing remarkable growth in deal value during the first six months of 2025. While the total number of VC deals announced in the US saw a slight decrease of around 4% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024, the value of these deals surged by 87% to $116bn, according to GlobalData. Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said: In comparison to other leading countries, the US maintains a commanding lead in both VC deal volume and value. An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database revealed that the US accounted for more than 30% of the total number of VC deals announced globally during H1 2025, while its share in terms of funding value stood at around 65%. China, which ranks second, experienced a notable decline in both metrics, with VC deal volume dropping by approximately 6% and deal value plummeting by over 40% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024. The UK also witnessed VC deal volume and value dropping by 14% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, in H1 2025. Meanwhile, India witnessed a growth of around 15% in VC deal volume and 13% in deal value. This divergence in trends emphasizes the unique position of the US market, which continues to attract significant capital. Some of the notable VC funding deals announced in the US during H1 2025 include $40bn in funding for OpenAI, $3.5bnsecured by Anthropic, $3bn raised by Infinite Reality, $2.5 billion secured by Anduril, and $1bn secured by Grammarly, among others. Adidas to raise prices as US tariffs costs rise Adidas has warned that US tariffs will cost the company a further €200m (£173m), confirming it will raise prices for American customers. The German sportswear giant makes most of its products in China and the Far East which have targeted by ongoing trade war. Bjorn Gulden, Adidas chief executive, said the tariffs "will directly increase the cost of our products for the US". He admitted that the company still does not know what the impact will be on customer demand "should all these tariffs cause major inflation". It comes as rival Nike also said it would raise prices on some trainers and clothing for US customers from June onwards, and later warned the tariffs could add about $1bn (£730m) to its costs. Microsoft to report Q4 earnings Microsoft (MSFT) will report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Wall Street is looking for the software giant to offer up solid growth in its AI and cloud business as its customers explore further AI use cases. The Windows maker's earnings come a week after Google (GOOG, GOOGL) posted better-than-anticipated second quarter results on the strength of its cloud revenue growth, sending shares higher. The company also said it is pouring an additional $10 billion into its AI buildout, bringing the year's total from $75 billion to $85 billion. But investors were unperturbed by the increase and instead focused on CEO Sundar Pichai's commentary indicating that Search volume grew double digits in the quarter. Those results could bode well for Microsoft as investors look toward further AI sales gains. For the quarter, Wall Street is anticipating Microsoft to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.37 on revenue of $73.89 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates. The company saw adj. EPS of $2.95 and revenue of $64.72 billion in the same period last year. The best places to retire in Britain revealed Chesham and Amersham has been crowned the best place to retire in Britain, in a ranking by L&G (LGEN.L), which looked at the top areas for wellbeing in later life. The financial services firm said in an analysis, published on Wednesday, that the commuter-belt constituency in Buckinghamshire ranked highest for retirement wellbeing out of 632 areas across the nation. L&G's study ranked each British constituency against six pillars measuring quality of life in retirement: housing, health, community, finances, nature, and access to amenities. Each area was scored out of 100 to identify where retirees are most likely to thrive. Chesham and Amersham received an overall score of 74 out of 100, with the constituency performing particularly well on health, gaining a score of 93 for this category. L&G said this reflected a strong proportion of over-65s in good physical and mental health, as well as good access to GPs. The area also scored highly on financial security and in the other pillars, which L&G said made it a well-rounded environment for later life. Some constituencies were top performers in individual categories but did not make it into the top 20 ranking list, as this was based on the overall score. Read more here FTSE risers and fallers After this morning's slew of corporate results, here are the FTSE 100 risers and fallers this morning, Taylor Wimpey shares fall after profit warning Shares in Taylor Wimpey (TW.L) fell 6.5% on Wednesday, after the housebuilder downgraded its profit forecast citing a £20m charge associated with historical defective workmanship by a principal contractor. The company said it now expects to deliver operating profit of around £424m for the year. Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: Gold prices steady as investors await Fed interest rate decision Gold prices (GC=F) were little changed on Wednesday morning as investors refrained from making significant moves ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, due later in the day. Gold futures were flat at $3,322.90 per ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold was also muted, at $3,330.98 per ounce. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 4.25% to 4.5% range despite persistent calls from US president Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Traders continue to price in a possible rate cut in September. "There could be a chance that the Fed may start to tilt towards the dovish side of the pendulum, and that is being portrayed on the Treasury yields," Oanda senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said. Expectations of looser monetary policy are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, which has already gained more than 27% this year, outperforming most major asset classes. Investment firm Fidelity believes bullion could climb as high as $4,000 an ounce by year-end, buoyed by a weakening US dollar and a pivot by the Fed towards rate cuts. Speaking to Bloomberg, Ian Samson, a fund manager at Fidelity, said the firm remains optimistic on the outlook for gold. 'The rationale for that was that we saw a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,' he said. Samson added that some cross-asset portfolios had increased their exposure after gold prices pulled back from a record high of $3,500 reached in April. In certain cases, allocations were doubled from an initial 5% over the past year. He also noted that August tends to be a softer month for risk assets, making diversification more appealing. 'More diversification makes sense,' Samson said. GSK delivers solid growth GSK (GSK.L) rose slightly on the day in London after it reported a solid set of results in the second quarter, with overall sales growing 6%. This was better than expected, with growth driven by speciality medicines and vaccines, as it offset weaker performance from general medicines. Sheena Berry, healthcare analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said: Apple to launch first foldable iPhone Apple is expected to launch its first foldable iPhone next year in a radical move likely to deliver a $65bn (£49bn) sales windfall for the tech giant. The Telegraph has the details... On Tuesday, analysts at Wall Street bank JP Morgan said the long awaited flip phone would form part of the new iPhone 18 lineup due in September 2026 and cost $1,999. The book-style device is likely be similar to the Galaxy Z Fold series, and will see Apple join the likes of Samsung which has been selling foldable smartphones since 2019. Although Apple has not confirmed the launch, JP Morgan closely monitors developments at the tech giant and believes a flip phone is the next logical step after its most current model, the iPhone 17, runs out of steam. Throughout its history, Apple has repeatedly taken existing devices from smartwatches to tablet and taken them mainstream. JP Morgan expect this to happen again, with the sales potential for foldable smartphones expanding significantly from this year onwards because of Apple's foray into the foldable phone market. The launch of a foldable model promises to be the most significant design update to the iPhone since Apple's founder Steve Jobs launched its first smartphone in 2007. Each subsequent year the updates have been met with keen interest from Apple's customers, with consumers often queuing through the night to be the first to get their hands on the newest models. But in recent years Apple's updates have been less compelling for customers, often with relatively lacklustre promises like improved battery life or minor software updates. JPMorgan said the upgrades to the iPhone 17 series to be released this autumn are expected to be 'fairly limited' and investors are already focused on next year's offering. German economy contracts 0.1% in second quarter The German economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, as companies adjusted to the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Economists had expected the decline in output from the EU's largest economy and biggest exporter, with the country's federal statistics agency revising down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%. It came after France's economy, Europe's second-largest, significantly outperformed expectations. French GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to preliminary data. This was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth, coming in higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Nicholas Farr, Emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, added that the economies of Hungary and Czechia 'have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April', according to data published on Wednesday. Hungary's economy grew 0.4%, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the Czech economy saw growth slow from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.2%. UK private sector to shrink at fastest pace since pandemic British business activity is expected to shrink at its fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 amid growing pessimism since Labour took power. Economists warned the 'negative sentiment' had no end in sight, with activity across 'all parts' of the British economy expected to keep shrinking over the next three months, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Its latest barometer of private sector output showed businesses were still reeling from the impact of Rachel Reeves's autumn tax raid, with consumer-facing sectors hit hardest by the £25bn increase in employers' National Insurance. The response to the CBI's business barometer was the most negative since October 2020, when Boris Johnson, the former prime minister announced the second national lockdown during the pandemic. Bosses were also wary about the impact of global trade policy, even though the UK has escaped with one of the lowest additional tariffs from Donald Trump among major advanced economies. 'The outlook remains negative across the board,' the CBI said, as it warned of a toxic mix of slower growth and higher prices. 'Our surveys also suggest that headcount will be cut further in the three months to October, marking almost a year of weak hiring intentions,' it said. US-India trade deal not finalised, says Trump Donald Trump has suggested that India could be hit with a tariff rate of 20-25%, although he cautioned that the final rate had not yet been finalised as both sides are still negotiating ahead of Friday's deadline. "India is my friend," the US president said. "They ended the war with Pakistan at my deal with India is not finalised. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country...". However, he cautioned that the tariff rate has not yet been decided as negotiations continue. Trump has expressed his desire to speak with prime minister Narendra Modi before giving the final nod to the trade agreement, sources familiar with the development told 5WH. Negotiations for the deal have concluded, with the final draft awaiting Trump's approval for more than a week. The pact has received endorsements from key officials on both sides — U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. HSBC launches $3bn share buyback despite second-quarter profit plunge Pre-tax profits at Europe's largest lender HSBC (HSBA.L) plunged 29% year-on-year to $6.3bn (£4.7bn) in its second quarter, mostly on account of impairment charges related to its investment in China's Bank of Communications ( and exposure to Hong Kong real estate. The bank recorded a $2.1bn impairment on its long-standing investment in Bank of Communications, adding to a $3bn charge taken earlier this year. The latest writedown includes a $1.1bn loss from a private placement of shares by the Chinese state-owned bank that diluted HSBC's stake. Expected credit losses rose by $900m year-on-year to $1.9bn, due in part to mounting stress in Hong Kong's property sector. Group CEO Georges Elhedery also cited rising macroeconomic risks. 'Structural challenges to the global economy have caused uncertainty and market volatility,' he said, referencing 'broad-based tariffs' and 'fiscal vulnerabilities.' He added: 'This is complicating the inflation and interest rate outlook, creating greater uncertainty. Even before tariffs take effect, trade disruptions are reshaping the economic landscape.' Operating expenses rose 10% compared with the same quarter last year, driven by restructuring and higher investment in technology, the bank said. Net interest income — the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was $8.5bn. Revenue for the first half of 2025 fell $3.2bn to $34.1bn, primarily reflecting the group's exit from its operations in Canada and Argentina. Read the full article here Asia and US overnight Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.05% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.2% up by the end of the session. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China were continuing talks on maintaining their current trade truce before it expires in two weeks' time. He said another 90-day extension, which had been indicated by China's delegation, was an option but that the final decision lay with Trump. National Economic Council Chair Hassett said Trump would see the final details on the China talks today. In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 0.7% on the day, buoyed by hopes of a US trade agreement prior to the August 1 deadline. Across the pond on Wall Street, stocks retreated, with the the S&P 500 (^GSPC) losing 0.5%, ending a run six consecutive record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.4% lower and the Dow Jones (^DJI) also fell 0.5%. It came as Tuesday was a busy day for US data, which sent a decent signal on the state of the US economy. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence index came in stronger than expected at 97.2 (vs 96.0), while inflation expectations continued to reverse their spike earlier in the year. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a strong rally, as 2-year yields fell -5.8bps, while 10-year (-9.1bps) and 30-year (-10.2bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines since early June. Coming up Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy. Looking ahead to today, the main event will be the Fed rate decision at 19:00 LDN time. Before the decision, the main data releases will be US GDP, ADP employment change and personal consumption. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone flash GDPs and consumer confidence. On the earnings side, we will hear from two of the Mag-7 with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the US close. Other US results include Qualcomm and Ford, while in Europe the highlights include Airbus, BAE, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Here's a snapshot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: HSBC, Rio Tinto, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, Oakley, Banco Santander, Sage, Aston Martin Lagonda, Foxtons 10am: Eurozone GDP growth rate 10am: Eurozone economic sentiment index 1:30pm: US GDP growth rate 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales 3.30pm: US Crude Oil Inventories 7pm: US Federal Reserve decisionBest credit cards for air miles Credit cards aren't just about spending. They are also powerful tools that, when used wisely, can help you save money, manage debt and even earn rewards. Whether you're looking to cut down on interest payments, earn cashback on everyday purchases, rack up air miles for your next holiday, or avoid fees while traveling abroad, there's a credit card tailored to your needs. In this guide, we'll break down the best options on the market for balance transfers, purchases, cashback, air miles and travel spending. We'll show you how to use these cards to your advantage, ensuring you get the most value while avoiding common mistakes. Find out more here Credit cards aren't just about spending. They are also powerful tools that, when used wisely, can help you save money, manage debt and even earn rewards. Whether you're looking to cut down on interest payments, earn cashback on everyday purchases, rack up air miles for your next holiday, or avoid fees while traveling abroad, there's a credit card tailored to your needs. In this guide, we'll break down the best options on the market for balance transfers, purchases, cashback, air miles and travel spending. We'll show you how to use these cards to your advantage, ensuring you get the most value while avoiding common mistakes. Find out more here US economy grows faster than expected The US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest data released on Wednesday. US GDP grew at a 3% annualised rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted annualised GDP growth of 2.4%, after a surprise contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter as exporters rushed to get their products into the country ahead of tariffs. Imports count against a country's GDP. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, a fund manager, said: The US economy grew faster than expected in the second quarter of 2025, according to the latest data released on Wednesday. US GDP grew at a 3% annualised rate, according to the US Bureau of Economic Analysis. Economists polled by Reuters had predicted annualised GDP growth of 2.4%, after a surprise contraction of 0.5% in the first quarter as exporters rushed to get their products into the country ahead of tariffs. Imports count against a country's GDP. Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Miton Investors, a fund manager, said: Where did GDP rise and fall most? The latest eurozone GDP reading was better than expected due to Spain leading the way with a 0.7% expansion. This was a result of solid consumer spending, a rebound in business investment and rising exports. "Spain is in another league, showing stubbornly robust dynamism. The moderate Q2 decline in Irish GDP suggests that there is ample room for further correction," Fabiani added. There was also faster-than-expected growth in France, the second-largest economy in the EU. France significantly outperformed expectations, growing 0.3% during the period, according to the preliminary data. This was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth — and higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Portugal and Estonia also delivered solid results, expanding 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the German economy contacted 0.1% in the second quarter of the year as companies adjusted to the impact of US president Donald Trump's tariffs. This marked the country's first contraction since mid-2024 due to weaker investment in machinery and construction. Economists had expected the decline in output from the EU's largest economy and biggest exporter, with the country's federal statistics agency revising down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%. Italy's GDP likewise shrunk 0.1% in the second quarter, reversing the 0.3% gain recorded in the first quarter and defying market expectations of a 0.2% increase. It was the country's first contraction since the second quarter of 2023. Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, added that the economies of Hungary and Czechia 'have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April', according to data published on Wednesday. Hungary's economy grew 0.4%, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the Czech economy saw growth slow to 0.2% from 0.8% in the first quarter. The latest eurozone GDP reading was better than expected due to Spain leading the way with a 0.7% expansion. This was a result of solid consumer spending, a rebound in business investment and rising exports. "Spain is in another league, showing stubbornly robust dynamism. The moderate Q2 decline in Irish GDP suggests that there is ample room for further correction," Fabiani added. There was also faster-than-expected growth in France, the second-largest economy in the EU. France significantly outperformed expectations, growing 0.3% during the period, according to the preliminary data. This was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth — and higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Portugal and Estonia also delivered solid results, expanding 0.6% and 0.5%, respectively. Meanwhile, the German economy contacted 0.1% in the second quarter of the year as companies adjusted to the impact of US president Donald Trump's tariffs. This marked the country's first contraction since mid-2024 due to weaker investment in machinery and construction. Economists had expected the decline in output from the EU's largest economy and biggest exporter, with the country's federal statistics agency revising down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%. Italy's GDP likewise shrunk 0.1% in the second quarter, reversing the 0.3% gain recorded in the first quarter and defying market expectations of a 0.2% increase. It was the country's first contraction since the second quarter of 2023. Nicholas Farr, emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, added that the economies of Hungary and Czechia 'have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April', according to data published on Wednesday. Hungary's economy grew 0.4%, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the Czech economy saw growth slow to 0.2% from 0.8% in the first quarter. Eurozone economic growth slows to 0.1% in second quarter The eurozone economy grew 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, coming in marginally better than the zero growth expected by economists. However, it was still a slowdown compared with the 0.6% growth seen in the first three months of 2025, as businesses had raced to get ahead of US tariffs by making more products and increasing exports to the country. Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) also rose by 0.2% in the European Union in the second quarter of 2025, compared with the previous quarter. Year-on-year, growth eased a little, with the eurozone up 1.4% and the EU up 1.5%, both slightly below the pace previous pace. Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said: "Although the slowdown is to a large extent a by-product of a misleadingly healthy Q1 number, broad-based weakness across national data indicates that the economy lacks momentum, with only a handful of countries blowing into its sails." The eurozone economy grew 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, coming in marginally better than the zero growth expected by economists. However, it was still a slowdown compared with the 0.6% growth seen in the first three months of 2025, as businesses had raced to get ahead of US tariffs by making more products and increasing exports to the country. Seasonally adjusted gross domestic product (GDP) also rose by 0.2% in the European Union in the second quarter of 2025, compared with the previous quarter. Year-on-year, growth eased a little, with the eurozone up 1.4% and the EU up 1.5%, both slightly below the pace previous pace. Riccardo Marcelli Fabiani, senior economist at Oxford Economics, said: "Although the slowdown is to a large extent a by-product of a misleadingly healthy Q1 number, broad-based weakness across national data indicates that the economy lacks momentum, with only a handful of countries blowing into its sails." US VC funding surges by 87% in first half In the global venture capital (VC) funding arena, the US continues to assert its dominance, showcasing remarkable growth in deal value during the first six months of 2025. While the total number of VC deals announced in the US saw a slight decrease of around 4% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024, the value of these deals surged by 87% to $116bn, according to GlobalData. Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said: In comparison to other leading countries, the US maintains a commanding lead in both VC deal volume and value. An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database revealed that the US accounted for more than 30% of the total number of VC deals announced globally during H1 2025, while its share in terms of funding value stood at around 65%. China, which ranks second, experienced a notable decline in both metrics, with VC deal volume dropping by approximately 6% and deal value plummeting by over 40% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024. The UK also witnessed VC deal volume and value dropping by 14% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, in H1 2025. Meanwhile, India witnessed a growth of around 15% in VC deal volume and 13% in deal value. This divergence in trends emphasizes the unique position of the US market, which continues to attract significant capital. Some of the notable VC funding deals announced in the US during H1 2025 include $40bn in funding for OpenAI, $3.5bnsecured by Anthropic, $3bn raised by Infinite Reality, $2.5 billion secured by Anduril, and $1bn secured by Grammarly, among others. In the global venture capital (VC) funding arena, the US continues to assert its dominance, showcasing remarkable growth in deal value during the first six months of 2025. While the total number of VC deals announced in the US saw a slight decrease of around 4% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024, the value of these deals surged by 87% to $116bn, according to GlobalData. Aurojyoti Bose, lead analyst at GlobalData, said: In comparison to other leading countries, the US maintains a commanding lead in both VC deal volume and value. An analysis of GlobalData's Deals Database revealed that the US accounted for more than 30% of the total number of VC deals announced globally during H1 2025, while its share in terms of funding value stood at around 65%. China, which ranks second, experienced a notable decline in both metrics, with VC deal volume dropping by approximately 6% and deal value plummeting by over 40% in H1 2025 compared to H1 2024. The UK also witnessed VC deal volume and value dropping by 14% and 12% year-on-year, respectively, in H1 2025. Meanwhile, India witnessed a growth of around 15% in VC deal volume and 13% in deal value. This divergence in trends emphasizes the unique position of the US market, which continues to attract significant capital. Some of the notable VC funding deals announced in the US during H1 2025 include $40bn in funding for OpenAI, $3.5bnsecured by Anthropic, $3bn raised by Infinite Reality, $2.5 billion secured by Anduril, and $1bn secured by Grammarly, among others. Adidas to raise prices as US tariffs costs rise Adidas has warned that US tariffs will cost the company a further €200m (£173m), confirming it will raise prices for American customers. The German sportswear giant makes most of its products in China and the Far East which have targeted by ongoing trade war. Bjorn Gulden, Adidas chief executive, said the tariffs "will directly increase the cost of our products for the US". He admitted that the company still does not know what the impact will be on customer demand "should all these tariffs cause major inflation". It comes as rival Nike also said it would raise prices on some trainers and clothing for US customers from June onwards, and later warned the tariffs could add about $1bn (£730m) to its costs. Adidas has warned that US tariffs will cost the company a further €200m (£173m), confirming it will raise prices for American customers. The German sportswear giant makes most of its products in China and the Far East which have targeted by ongoing trade war. Bjorn Gulden, Adidas chief executive, said the tariffs "will directly increase the cost of our products for the US". He admitted that the company still does not know what the impact will be on customer demand "should all these tariffs cause major inflation". It comes as rival Nike also said it would raise prices on some trainers and clothing for US customers from June onwards, and later warned the tariffs could add about $1bn (£730m) to its costs. Microsoft to report Q4 earnings Microsoft (MSFT) will report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Wall Street is looking for the software giant to offer up solid growth in its AI and cloud business as its customers explore further AI use cases. The Windows maker's earnings come a week after Google (GOOG, GOOGL) posted better-than-anticipated second quarter results on the strength of its cloud revenue growth, sending shares higher. The company also said it is pouring an additional $10 billion into its AI buildout, bringing the year's total from $75 billion to $85 billion. But investors were unperturbed by the increase and instead focused on CEO Sundar Pichai's commentary indicating that Search volume grew double digits in the quarter. Those results could bode well for Microsoft as investors look toward further AI sales gains. For the quarter, Wall Street is anticipating Microsoft to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.37 on revenue of $73.89 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates. The company saw adj. EPS of $2.95 and revenue of $64.72 billion in the same period last year. Microsoft (MSFT) will report its fiscal fourth quarter earnings after the bell on Wednesday. Wall Street is looking for the software giant to offer up solid growth in its AI and cloud business as its customers explore further AI use cases. The Windows maker's earnings come a week after Google (GOOG, GOOGL) posted better-than-anticipated second quarter results on the strength of its cloud revenue growth, sending shares higher. The company also said it is pouring an additional $10 billion into its AI buildout, bringing the year's total from $75 billion to $85 billion. But investors were unperturbed by the increase and instead focused on CEO Sundar Pichai's commentary indicating that Search volume grew double digits in the quarter. Those results could bode well for Microsoft as investors look toward further AI sales gains. For the quarter, Wall Street is anticipating Microsoft to report adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $3.37 on revenue of $73.89 billion, according to Bloomberg analyst consensus estimates. The company saw adj. EPS of $2.95 and revenue of $64.72 billion in the same period last year. The best places to retire in Britain revealed Chesham and Amersham has been crowned the best place to retire in Britain, in a ranking by L&G (LGEN.L), which looked at the top areas for wellbeing in later life. The financial services firm said in an analysis, published on Wednesday, that the commuter-belt constituency in Buckinghamshire ranked highest for retirement wellbeing out of 632 areas across the nation. L&G's study ranked each British constituency against six pillars measuring quality of life in retirement: housing, health, community, finances, nature, and access to amenities. Each area was scored out of 100 to identify where retirees are most likely to thrive. Chesham and Amersham received an overall score of 74 out of 100, with the constituency performing particularly well on health, gaining a score of 93 for this category. L&G said this reflected a strong proportion of over-65s in good physical and mental health, as well as good access to GPs. The area also scored highly on financial security and in the other pillars, which L&G said made it a well-rounded environment for later life. Some constituencies were top performers in individual categories but did not make it into the top 20 ranking list, as this was based on the overall score. Read more here Chesham and Amersham has been crowned the best place to retire in Britain, in a ranking by L&G (LGEN.L), which looked at the top areas for wellbeing in later life. The financial services firm said in an analysis, published on Wednesday, that the commuter-belt constituency in Buckinghamshire ranked highest for retirement wellbeing out of 632 areas across the nation. L&G's study ranked each British constituency against six pillars measuring quality of life in retirement: housing, health, community, finances, nature, and access to amenities. Each area was scored out of 100 to identify where retirees are most likely to thrive. Chesham and Amersham received an overall score of 74 out of 100, with the constituency performing particularly well on health, gaining a score of 93 for this category. L&G said this reflected a strong proportion of over-65s in good physical and mental health, as well as good access to GPs. The area also scored highly on financial security and in the other pillars, which L&G said made it a well-rounded environment for later life. Some constituencies were top performers in individual categories but did not make it into the top 20 ranking list, as this was based on the overall score. Read more here FTSE risers and fallers After this morning's slew of corporate results, here are the FTSE 100 risers and fallers this morning, After this morning's slew of corporate results, here are the FTSE 100 risers and fallers this morning, Taylor Wimpey shares fall after profit warning Shares in Taylor Wimpey (TW.L) fell 6.5% on Wednesday, after the housebuilder downgraded its profit forecast citing a £20m charge associated with historical defective workmanship by a principal contractor. The company said it now expects to deliver operating profit of around £424m for the year. Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: Shares in Taylor Wimpey (TW.L) fell 6.5% on Wednesday, after the housebuilder downgraded its profit forecast citing a £20m charge associated with historical defective workmanship by a principal contractor. The company said it now expects to deliver operating profit of around £424m for the year. Steve Clayton, head of equity funds at Hargreaves Lansdown, said: Gold prices steady as investors await Fed interest rate decision Gold prices (GC=F) were little changed on Wednesday morning as investors refrained from making significant moves ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, due later in the day. Gold futures were flat at $3,322.90 per ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold was also muted, at $3,330.98 per ounce. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 4.25% to 4.5% range despite persistent calls from US president Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Traders continue to price in a possible rate cut in September. "There could be a chance that the Fed may start to tilt towards the dovish side of the pendulum, and that is being portrayed on the Treasury yields," Oanda senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said. Expectations of looser monetary policy are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, which has already gained more than 27% this year, outperforming most major asset classes. Investment firm Fidelity believes bullion could climb as high as $4,000 an ounce by year-end, buoyed by a weakening US dollar and a pivot by the Fed towards rate cuts. Speaking to Bloomberg, Ian Samson, a fund manager at Fidelity, said the firm remains optimistic on the outlook for gold. 'The rationale for that was that we saw a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,' he said. Samson added that some cross-asset portfolios had increased their exposure after gold prices pulled back from a record high of $3,500 reached in April. In certain cases, allocations were doubled from an initial 5% over the past year. He also noted that August tends to be a softer month for risk assets, making diversification more appealing. 'More diversification makes sense,' Samson said. Gold prices (GC=F) were little changed on Wednesday morning as investors refrained from making significant moves ahead of the US Federal Reserve's latest interest rate decision, due later in the day. Gold futures were flat at $3,322.90 per ounce at the time of writing, while spot gold was also muted, at $3,330.98 per ounce. The Federal Reserve is expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged within the 4.25% to 4.5% range despite persistent calls from US president Donald Trump to lower borrowing costs. Traders continue to price in a possible rate cut in September. "There could be a chance that the Fed may start to tilt towards the dovish side of the pendulum, and that is being portrayed on the Treasury yields," Oanda senior market analyst Kelvin Wong said. Expectations of looser monetary policy are contributing to bullish sentiment for gold, which has already gained more than 27% this year, outperforming most major asset classes. Investment firm Fidelity believes bullion could climb as high as $4,000 an ounce by year-end, buoyed by a weakening US dollar and a pivot by the Fed towards rate cuts. Speaking to Bloomberg, Ian Samson, a fund manager at Fidelity, said the firm remains optimistic on the outlook for gold. 'The rationale for that was that we saw a clearer path to a more dovish Federal Reserve,' he said. Samson added that some cross-asset portfolios had increased their exposure after gold prices pulled back from a record high of $3,500 reached in April. In certain cases, allocations were doubled from an initial 5% over the past year. He also noted that August tends to be a softer month for risk assets, making diversification more appealing. 'More diversification makes sense,' Samson said. GSK delivers solid growth GSK (GSK.L) rose slightly on the day in London after it reported a solid set of results in the second quarter, with overall sales growing 6%. This was better than expected, with growth driven by speciality medicines and vaccines, as it offset weaker performance from general medicines. Sheena Berry, healthcare analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said: GSK (GSK.L) rose slightly on the day in London after it reported a solid set of results in the second quarter, with overall sales growing 6%. This was better than expected, with growth driven by speciality medicines and vaccines, as it offset weaker performance from general medicines. Sheena Berry, healthcare analyst at Quilter Cheviot, said: Apple to launch first foldable iPhone Apple is expected to launch its first foldable iPhone next year in a radical move likely to deliver a $65bn (£49bn) sales windfall for the tech giant. The Telegraph has the details... On Tuesday, analysts at Wall Street bank JP Morgan said the long awaited flip phone would form part of the new iPhone 18 lineup due in September 2026 and cost $1,999. The book-style device is likely be similar to the Galaxy Z Fold series, and will see Apple join the likes of Samsung which has been selling foldable smartphones since 2019. Although Apple has not confirmed the launch, JP Morgan closely monitors developments at the tech giant and believes a flip phone is the next logical step after its most current model, the iPhone 17, runs out of steam. Throughout its history, Apple has repeatedly taken existing devices from smartwatches to tablet and taken them mainstream. JP Morgan expect this to happen again, with the sales potential for foldable smartphones expanding significantly from this year onwards because of Apple's foray into the foldable phone market. The launch of a foldable model promises to be the most significant design update to the iPhone since Apple's founder Steve Jobs launched its first smartphone in 2007. Each subsequent year the updates have been met with keen interest from Apple's customers, with consumers often queuing through the night to be the first to get their hands on the newest models. But in recent years Apple's updates have been less compelling for customers, often with relatively lacklustre promises like improved battery life or minor software updates. JPMorgan said the upgrades to the iPhone 17 series to be released this autumn are expected to be 'fairly limited' and investors are already focused on next year's offering. Apple is expected to launch its first foldable iPhone next year in a radical move likely to deliver a $65bn (£49bn) sales windfall for the tech giant. The Telegraph has the details... On Tuesday, analysts at Wall Street bank JP Morgan said the long awaited flip phone would form part of the new iPhone 18 lineup due in September 2026 and cost $1,999. The book-style device is likely be similar to the Galaxy Z Fold series, and will see Apple join the likes of Samsung which has been selling foldable smartphones since 2019. Although Apple has not confirmed the launch, JP Morgan closely monitors developments at the tech giant and believes a flip phone is the next logical step after its most current model, the iPhone 17, runs out of steam. Throughout its history, Apple has repeatedly taken existing devices from smartwatches to tablet and taken them mainstream. JP Morgan expect this to happen again, with the sales potential for foldable smartphones expanding significantly from this year onwards because of Apple's foray into the foldable phone market. The launch of a foldable model promises to be the most significant design update to the iPhone since Apple's founder Steve Jobs launched its first smartphone in 2007. Each subsequent year the updates have been met with keen interest from Apple's customers, with consumers often queuing through the night to be the first to get their hands on the newest models. But in recent years Apple's updates have been less compelling for customers, often with relatively lacklustre promises like improved battery life or minor software updates. JPMorgan said the upgrades to the iPhone 17 series to be released this autumn are expected to be 'fairly limited' and investors are already focused on next year's offering. German economy contracts 0.1% in second quarter The German economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, as companies adjusted to the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Economists had expected the decline in output from the EU's largest economy and biggest exporter, with the country's federal statistics agency revising down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%. It came after France's economy, Europe's second-largest, significantly outperformed expectations. French GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to preliminary data. This was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth, coming in higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Nicholas Farr, Emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, added that the economies of Hungary and Czechia 'have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April', according to data published on Wednesday. Hungary's economy grew 0.4%, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the Czech economy saw growth slow from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.2%. The German economy shrank 0.1% in the second quarter of the year, as companies adjusted to the impact of Donald Trump's tariffs. Economists had expected the decline in output from the EU's largest economy and biggest exporter, with the country's federal statistics agency revising down growth in the first quarter to 0.3%, rather than the preliminary reading of 0.4%. It came after France's economy, Europe's second-largest, significantly outperformed expectations. French GDP grew by 0.3% in the second quarter, according to preliminary data. This was a surprise acceleration in growth from the 0.1% revised reading for first-quarter growth, coming in higher than the 0.1% expected by economists polled by Reuters. Nicholas Farr, Emerging Europe economist at Capital Economics, added that the economies of Hungary and Czechia 'have held up reasonably well since the introduction of US tariffs in April', according to data published on Wednesday. Hungary's economy grew 0.4%, an improvement from a 0.1% contraction in the previous quarter. However, the Czech economy saw growth slow from 0.8% in the first quarter to 0.2%. UK private sector to shrink at fastest pace since pandemic British business activity is expected to shrink at its fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 amid growing pessimism since Labour took power. Economists warned the 'negative sentiment' had no end in sight, with activity across 'all parts' of the British economy expected to keep shrinking over the next three months, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Its latest barometer of private sector output showed businesses were still reeling from the impact of Rachel Reeves's autumn tax raid, with consumer-facing sectors hit hardest by the £25bn increase in employers' National Insurance. The response to the CBI's business barometer was the most negative since October 2020, when Boris Johnson, the former prime minister announced the second national lockdown during the pandemic. Bosses were also wary about the impact of global trade policy, even though the UK has escaped with one of the lowest additional tariffs from Donald Trump among major advanced economies. 'The outlook remains negative across the board,' the CBI said, as it warned of a toxic mix of slower growth and higher prices. 'Our surveys also suggest that headcount will be cut further in the three months to October, marking almost a year of weak hiring intentions,' it said. British business activity is expected to shrink at its fastest pace since the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 amid growing pessimism since Labour took power. Economists warned the 'negative sentiment' had no end in sight, with activity across 'all parts' of the British economy expected to keep shrinking over the next three months, according to the Confederation of British Industry (CBI). Its latest barometer of private sector output showed businesses were still reeling from the impact of Rachel Reeves's autumn tax raid, with consumer-facing sectors hit hardest by the £25bn increase in employers' National Insurance. The response to the CBI's business barometer was the most negative since October 2020, when Boris Johnson, the former prime minister announced the second national lockdown during the pandemic. Bosses were also wary about the impact of global trade policy, even though the UK has escaped with one of the lowest additional tariffs from Donald Trump among major advanced economies. 'The outlook remains negative across the board,' the CBI said, as it warned of a toxic mix of slower growth and higher prices. 'Our surveys also suggest that headcount will be cut further in the three months to October, marking almost a year of weak hiring intentions,' it said. US-India trade deal not finalised, says Trump Donald Trump has suggested that India could be hit with a tariff rate of 20-25%, although he cautioned that the final rate had not yet been finalised as both sides are still negotiating ahead of Friday's deadline. "India is my friend," the US president said. "They ended the war with Pakistan at my deal with India is not finalised. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country...". However, he cautioned that the tariff rate has not yet been decided as negotiations continue. Trump has expressed his desire to speak with prime minister Narendra Modi before giving the final nod to the trade agreement, sources familiar with the development told 5WH. Negotiations for the deal have concluded, with the final draft awaiting Trump's approval for more than a week. The pact has received endorsements from key officials on both sides — U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. Donald Trump has suggested that India could be hit with a tariff rate of 20-25%, although he cautioned that the final rate had not yet been finalised as both sides are still negotiating ahead of Friday's deadline. "India is my friend," the US president said. "They ended the war with Pakistan at my deal with India is not finalised. India has been a good friend, but India has charged basically more tariffs than almost any other country...". However, he cautioned that the tariff rate has not yet been decided as negotiations continue. Trump has expressed his desire to speak with prime minister Narendra Modi before giving the final nod to the trade agreement, sources familiar with the development told 5WH. Negotiations for the deal have concluded, with the final draft awaiting Trump's approval for more than a week. The pact has received endorsements from key officials on both sides — U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, as well as India's Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal. HSBC launches $3bn share buyback despite second-quarter profit plunge Pre-tax profits at Europe's largest lender HSBC (HSBA.L) plunged 29% year-on-year to $6.3bn (£4.7bn) in its second quarter, mostly on account of impairment charges related to its investment in China's Bank of Communications ( and exposure to Hong Kong real estate. The bank recorded a $2.1bn impairment on its long-standing investment in Bank of Communications, adding to a $3bn charge taken earlier this year. The latest writedown includes a $1.1bn loss from a private placement of shares by the Chinese state-owned bank that diluted HSBC's stake. Expected credit losses rose by $900m year-on-year to $1.9bn, due in part to mounting stress in Hong Kong's property sector. Group CEO Georges Elhedery also cited rising macroeconomic risks. 'Structural challenges to the global economy have caused uncertainty and market volatility,' he said, referencing 'broad-based tariffs' and 'fiscal vulnerabilities.' He added: 'This is complicating the inflation and interest rate outlook, creating greater uncertainty. Even before tariffs take effect, trade disruptions are reshaping the economic landscape.' Operating expenses rose 10% compared with the same quarter last year, driven by restructuring and higher investment in technology, the bank said. Net interest income — the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was $8.5bn. Revenue for the first half of 2025 fell $3.2bn to $34.1bn, primarily reflecting the group's exit from its operations in Canada and Argentina. Read the full article here Pre-tax profits at Europe's largest lender HSBC (HSBA.L) plunged 29% year-on-year to $6.3bn (£4.7bn) in its second quarter, mostly on account of impairment charges related to its investment in China's Bank of Communications ( and exposure to Hong Kong real estate. The bank recorded a $2.1bn impairment on its long-standing investment in Bank of Communications, adding to a $3bn charge taken earlier this year. The latest writedown includes a $1.1bn loss from a private placement of shares by the Chinese state-owned bank that diluted HSBC's stake. Expected credit losses rose by $900m year-on-year to $1.9bn, due in part to mounting stress in Hong Kong's property sector. Group CEO Georges Elhedery also cited rising macroeconomic risks. 'Structural challenges to the global economy have caused uncertainty and market volatility,' he said, referencing 'broad-based tariffs' and 'fiscal vulnerabilities.' He added: 'This is complicating the inflation and interest rate outlook, creating greater uncertainty. Even before tariffs take effect, trade disruptions are reshaping the economic landscape.' Operating expenses rose 10% compared with the same quarter last year, driven by restructuring and higher investment in technology, the bank said. Net interest income — the difference between what the bank earns on loans and pays on deposits — was $8.5bn. Revenue for the first half of 2025 fell $3.2bn to $34.1bn, primarily reflecting the group's exit from its operations in Canada and Argentina. Read the full article here Asia and US overnight Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.05% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.2% up by the end of the session. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China were continuing talks on maintaining their current trade truce before it expires in two weeks' time. He said another 90-day extension, which had been indicated by China's delegation, was an option but that the final decision lay with Trump. National Economic Council Chair Hassett said Trump would see the final details on the China talks today. In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 0.7% on the day, buoyed by hopes of a US trade agreement prior to the August 1 deadline. Across the pond on Wall Street, stocks retreated, with the the S&P 500 (^GSPC) losing 0.5%, ending a run six consecutive record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.4% lower and the Dow Jones (^DJI) also fell 0.5%. It came as Tuesday was a busy day for US data, which sent a decent signal on the state of the US economy. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence index came in stronger than expected at 97.2 (vs 96.0), while inflation expectations continued to reverse their spike earlier in the year. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a strong rally, as 2-year yields fell -5.8bps, while 10-year (-9.1bps) and 30-year (-10.2bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines since early June. Stocks in Asia were mixed overnight, with the Nikkei (^N225) slipped 0.05% on the day in Japan, while the Hang Seng (^HSI) fell 1.2% in Hong Kong. The Shanghai Composite ( was 0.2% up by the end of the session. US Treasury Secretary Bessent said the US and China were continuing talks on maintaining their current trade truce before it expires in two weeks' time. He said another 90-day extension, which had been indicated by China's delegation, was an option but that the final decision lay with Trump. National Economic Council Chair Hassett said Trump would see the final details on the China talks today. In South Korea, the Kospi (^KS11) added 0.7% on the day, buoyed by hopes of a US trade agreement prior to the August 1 deadline. Across the pond on Wall Street, stocks retreated, with the the S&P 500 (^GSPC) losing 0.5%, ending a run six consecutive record highs. The tech-heavy Nasdaq (^IXIC) was 0.4% lower and the Dow Jones (^DJI) also fell 0.5%. It came as Tuesday was a busy day for US data, which sent a decent signal on the state of the US economy. The Conference Board's July consumer confidence index came in stronger than expected at 97.2 (vs 96.0), while inflation expectations continued to reverse their spike earlier in the year. Meanwhile, US Treasuries saw a strong rally, as 2-year yields fell -5.8bps, while 10-year (-9.1bps) and 30-year (-10.2bps) yields saw their biggest daily declines since early June. Coming up Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy. Looking ahead to today, the main event will be the Fed rate decision at 19:00 LDN time. Before the decision, the main data releases will be US GDP, ADP employment change and personal consumption. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone flash GDPs and consumer confidence. On the earnings side, we will hear from two of the Mag-7 with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the US close. Other US results include Qualcomm and Ford, while in Europe the highlights include Airbus, BAE, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Here's a snapshot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: HSBC, Rio Tinto, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, Oakley, Banco Santander, Sage, Aston Martin Lagonda, Foxtons 10am: Eurozone GDP growth rate 10am: Eurozone economic sentiment index 1:30pm: US GDP growth rate 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales 3.30pm: US Crude Oil Inventories 7pm: US Federal Reserve decision Good morning, and welcome back to our markets live blog. As usual we will be taking a deep dive into what's moving markets and happening across the global economy. Looking ahead to today, the main event will be the Fed rate decision at 19:00 LDN time. Before the decision, the main data releases will be US GDP, ADP employment change and personal consumption. In Europe, the focus will be on the eurozone flash GDPs and consumer confidence. On the earnings side, we will hear from two of the Mag-7 with Microsoft and Meta reporting after the US close. Other US results include Qualcomm and Ford, while in Europe the highlights include Airbus, BAE, Mercedes-Benz and Porsche. Here's a snapshot of what's on the agenda: 7am: Trading updates: HSBC, Rio Tinto, GlaxoSmithKline, BAE Systems, Oakley, Banco Santander, Sage, Aston Martin Lagonda, Foxtons 10am: Eurozone GDP growth rate 10am: Eurozone economic sentiment index 1:30pm: US GDP growth rate 3pm: US Pending Homes Sales 3.30pm: US Crude Oil Inventories 7pm: US Federal Reserve decision Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
