Morning Bid: $4 trillion Nvidia obscures new tariffs
By Mike Dolan, opens new tab, Editor-At-Large, Finance and Markets
If in doubt, latch on to artificial intelligence.
Making AI-chip monster Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab the first company to be valued at $4 trillion briefly on Wednesday, investors parsing another wave of tariff hikes and confusion seem keener to look through the fog and bank on long-term themes regardless.
Today's Market Minute
* U.S. President Donald Trump launched his global tariff assault into overdrive on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August 1.
* Nvidia briefly reached a market capitalization of $4 trillion on Wednesday, making it the first company in the world to reach the milestone and solidifying its position as one of Wall Street's most-favored stocks.
* U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio will meet with Southeast Asian counterparts on Thursday in his first visit to Asia since taking office, and will try to reassure them the region is a priority for Washington, even as Trump targets it in his global tariff offensive.
* The planned 50% tariff on copper imports may turn out to be the biggest own goal of Trump's ongoing trade war with the rest of the world, claims ROI columnist Clyde Russell.
* Trump's signature budget bill slashed funding for refilling U.S. emergency oil reserves, violating his previous vow to fill them "right to the top". This about-face raises the question of whether the U.S. still needs the Strategic Petroleum Reserve at all, writes ROI columnist Ron Bousso.
$4 trillion Nvidia obscures new tariffs
The second-quarter corporate earnings season kicks off in earnest next week, with consensus forecasts for annual S&P 500 profit growth just under 6% - half what was expected at the start of the year and less than half of the first quarter pace.
And yet, the S&P 500 (.SPX), opens new tab is back stalking record highs - up about 6% for the year so far - with the Nasdaq (.IXIC), opens new tab hitting another new peak on Wednesday. All that's still lagging other world markets (.MIWD00000PUS), opens new tab of course, especially dollar-denominated gains for Germany's record-high DAX (.GDAXI), opens new tab of almost 40% for 2025 and almost 30% for euro stocks (.STOXXE), opens new tab.
But mid-year calm remained the order of the day. The VIX "fear index" (.VIX), opens new tab hit a five-month low on Wednesday, while the bond market equivalent (.MOVE), opens new tab is near its lowest for the year.
This week's postponement of the July 9 U.S. tariff deadline to August 1, along with pressure to get more deals done by then, has seen many investors revert to the immediate post-election thinking on trade policy - that deals, negotiations and shifting sands, rather than hard deadlines, will dominate the trade agenda.
In the latest development, U.S. and European Union negotiators moved closer to a deal.
EU trade chief Maros Sefcovic said on Wednesday the European Commission had made good progress on a framework agreement with Washington, and a deal could be reached within days. Negotiators were discussing potential measures to protect the EU auto industry, according to EU officials and auto industry sources.
More worryingly, U.S. President Donald Trump announced a new 50% tariff on copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both effective August 1 - with the former a considerable inflation concern over time given the breadth of goods with copper inputs.
U.S. copper prices surged more than 10% to record highs on Wednesday, while overseas copper prices came under pressure today.
But for all that inflation angst and recent debt supply jitters, Treasury demand remains surprisingly brisk, with a strong 10-year note auction yesterday helping drag yields lower as Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed splits about the timing of the next interest rate cut.
While most Fed officials seem keen to delay until the tariff horizon and its inflation impact become clearer, the minutes showed two - presumed to be board members Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller - prepared to vote for an earlier cut.
Waller speaks in Dallas later on Thursday and some $22 billion of 30-year bonds go under the hammer too. The Fed meets again later this month.
Fed futures expect a near 80% chance of a cut in September and two cuts are fully priced by the end of the year.
The U.S. dollar index (.DXY), opens new tab slipped back after a week of tentative gains, with the euro - still up 13% for the year - retaining a perch above $1.17.
Wall St stock index futures dialed back a touch early on Thursday, but world stocks pushed higher from Asia to Europe.
Chart of the day:
President Donald Trump ramped up global tariff assault into overdrive on Wednesday, announcing a new 50% tariff on U.S. copper imports and a 50% duty on goods from Brazil, both to start on August 1. Trump said he issued August 1 tariff notices to seven minor trading partners that exported only $15 billion in goods to the U.S. last year: a 20% tariff on goods from the Philippines, 30% on goods from Sri Lanka, Algeria, Iraq, and Libya, and 25% on Brunei and Moldova.
The latest letters add to 14 others issued earlier in the week, including 25% tariffs for powerhouse U.S. suppliers South Korea and Japan, to take effect on Aug 1. U.S. research group Yale Budget Lab estimated consumers face an effective U.S. tariff rate of 17.6%, up from 15.8% previously and the highest in nine decades. However, U.S. and EU negotiators pushed closer to a trade deal to ease tariffs on the biggest bilateral U.S.- trading partner bloc.
Today's events to watch
* U.S. weekly jobless claims (8:30 AM EDT)
* Federal Reserve Board Governor Christopher Waller, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, St Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem; Bank of England Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Sarah Breeden speak
* U.S. Treasury sells $22 billion of 30-year bonds
* U.S. corporate earnings: Conagra Brands, Delta Air Lines
Opinions expressed are those of the author. They do not reflect the views of Reuters News, which, under the Trust Principles, opens new tab, is committed to integrity, independence, and freedom from bias.
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