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Paytm Q1 results preview: Will co's net loss narrow? Check date, estimates
Paytm Q1 results 2025: Profit estimates
Bloomberg estimates Paytm's adjusted net loss to narrow year-on-year (Y-o-Y) on average, to ₹126.63 crore as compared to ₹838.9 crore. Sequentially, the adjusted net loss is expected to narrow from ₹539.8 crore in Q4.
Paytm Q1 results 2025: Revenue expectations
The company's revenue for the quarter under review is expected to increase by 31 per cent in the first quarter, on average, to ₹1,968.15 crore as compared to ₹1,501.6 crore a year ago. However, on a Q-o-Q basis, the revenue is poised to rise 2.9 per cent from ₹1,911.5 crore in Q4FY25.
The revenue, according to analysts, will be led by robust merchant lending expansion (higher take rates against personal loans) and gradual user base recovery post-NPCI onboarding approval. Check List of Q1 results today
How will Paytm perform in Q1FY26?
Motilal Oswal: Analysts at the brokerage expect Paytm's gross merchandise value (GMV) to grow 3 per cent quarter-on-quarter (Q-o-Q) to ₹5.3 trillion in Q1FY26.
The company's revenue from operations is likely to remain flat Q-o-Q and increase 26 per cent Y-o-Y to ₹1,896 crore, while contribution profit is expected to decline marginally, largely due to UPI incentives in Q4FY25, to ₹1,050 crore. Contribution margin is expected to improve to 55.6 per cent. Paytm is forecasted to report marginal profits during Q1.
JM Financial Institutional Securities: On a consolidated basis, the brokerage expects revenue to remain flat sequentially, but up 27 per cent Y-o-Y.
The revenue from operations is pegged at ₹1,910.9 crore as compared to ₹1,911.5 crore in Q4FY25 and ₹1,501.6 crore a year ago.
The contribution margin is forecasted to decline by 67 basis points (bps) to 55.4 per cent as compared to 56.1 per cent in Q4, due to an increasing share of financial services in the mix (via higher take-rates from the DLG model in merchant loans).
Further, better operating leverage due to lower employee cost will help Paytm to remain adjusted Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (Ebitda) positive in Q1 with an adjusted Ebitda margin of 1.1 per cent.
The company's adjusted Ebitda is projected at ₹21.1 crore as compared to ₹803 crore in Q4 and Ebitda loss of ₹545.2 crore a year ago. Track Stock Market LIVE Updates
Bonanza: According to Nitant Darekar, research analyst at Bonanza, Paytm's Q1FY26 represents a pivotal inflection point as the fintech player transitions from restructuring to sustainable growth. Darekar expects the company to achieve PAT profitability from Q1FY26 onwards (barring exceptional items), underpinned by normalised employee stock ownership plan (ESOP) expenses at ₹75-₹100 crore quarterly against ₹522 crore exceptional charge and significant AI-driven operational efficiencies reducing cloud/data center costs.
The company's revenue growth will be led by robust merchant lending expansion (higher take rates against personal loans) and gradual user base recovery post-NPCI onboarding approval. However, personal loan disbursements will remain subdued due to industry-wide credit tightening and management's strategic shift to a pure distribution model.
The UPI MDR implementation catalyst within FY26 could unlock substantial monetisation potential at 5-8 bps of GMV.
Master Capital Services: Analysts at the brokerage expect the payments and financial services segments to fare very well in Q1, demonstrating the ongoing recovery. Further, expectations of a rise in merchant subscriber base as the company has a key focus on the area, which helped stabilise core business even amid earlier headwinds. Paytm is likely to move closer to overall profitability, with the potential to achieve Ebitda profitability in Q1.
Swastika Investmart: Santosh Meena, head of research at Swastika, believes there is a high probability that the company could turn PAT positive this quarter.
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