South Africa's Rand Ends Slide After Weak US Jobs Report
The currency rose 0.9% to 18.06 per dollar as of 3:14 p.m. in Johannesburg, halting its longest losing streak since 2022. The rand had been under pressure recently as President Donald Trump pushed ahead with plans to impose a 30% tariff on South Africa's exports to the US.
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a minute ago
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What if the dollar has bottomed?
-- A recent rebound in the U.S. dollar may mark the end of its year-to-date slide, potentially easing pressure on European equities and resetting key assumptions across global markets. The dollar, down around 10% from January highs, has recently bounced following U.S. trade agreements with Japan and the EU. Barclays analysts say this move could reflect the early stages of a broader shift, particularly as speculative positioning against the dollar looks stretched and U.S. earnings and macro data remain firm. The rally in the euro, driven more by capital flows than interest rate differentials, has been a drag on European earnings, especially for exporters. Barclays' FX strategists expect the euro to weaken gradually, forecasting EUR/USD to fall toward 1.13. That shift would reverse some of the eurozone's year-to-date 'exorbitant benefit' from dollar weakness, which had exacerbated the impact of deteriorating terms of trade due to tariffs. European stocks have lagged U.S. peers in part due to this FX dynamic. Barclays says the stronger euro has hit corporate earnings harder than tariffs, contributing to a wave of EPS downgrades in export-heavy sectors. But a dollar turnaround may offer some relief, with the potential to put a floor under European earnings estimates. Medium-term risks remain. Concerns around Federal Reserve independence and potential rate convergence in 2026, especially if German or EU growth surprises to the upside — could limit sustained dollar strength. Still, Barclays concludes that FX is no longer a one-way bet. If the dollar has in fact bottomed, it would mark a meaningful shift in global equity drivers, the brokerage said. Related articles What if the dollar has bottomed? After soaring 149%, this stock is back in our AI's favor - & already +25% in July If Powell goes, does Fed trust go with him?
Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Wall Street's Biggest Showdown -- Donald Trump vs. Jerome Powell -- Has Likely Already Been Decided but Not for the Reason You Might Think
Key Points The S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average have endured heightened volatility in 2025, with President Trump's tariff policy whipsawing Wall Street. Trump continues to pressure Fed Chair Jerome Powell to lower interest rates, with some media outlets suggesting the president could "fire" him. However, data from the June inflation report suggests the battle between Trump and Powell has already been decided. 10 stocks we like better than S&P 500 Index › Though volatility is a given when putting your money to work on Wall Street, it's been an exceptionally wild ride for investors through the first seven months of 2025. During the first week of April, uncertainty crescendoed following President Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy announcements. This led the benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) to its fifth-steepest two-day percentage decline since 1950 and pushed the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and growth stock-powered Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) into correction territory and a bear market, respectively. However, all three indexes have enjoyed an equally robust three-plus-month rebound in the wake of President Trump pausing higher "reciprocal tariffs" on select countries. For only the sixth time in its storied history, the S&P 500 gained at least 25% in a three-month period. But just because the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite have hit new highs doesn't mean Wall Street's biggest showdown -- Donald Trump vs. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell -- is taking a back seat. While Trump is insistent that the central bank needs to lower interest rates, this ongoing battle between two key figures has, in all likelihood, already been decided -- and it may not be for the reason you're thinking. Can Fed Chair Jerome Powell be fired? Interest rates are at the heart of this Wall Street clash. When U.S. money supply skyrocketed at its fastest pace in history on a year-over-year basis during the COVID-19 pandemic, it sparked the highest prevailing rate of inflation in four decades. In response to rapidly rising prices, the Fed kicked off its most aggressive rate-hiking cycle in decades, with the fed funds rate (the overnight lending rate between U.S. banks) moving up 525 basis points between March 2022 and July 2023. Adjusting the fed funds rate influences everything from lending rates to yields on savings accounts. During tightening cycles, which is where the central bank increases the fed funds rate, the Fed is usually attempting to cool down the prevailing rate of inflation. In comparison, it tends to lower the fed funds rate during shock events and/or economic downturns to encourage borrowing, which can lead to corporate hiring, acquisitions, and innovation -- i.e., catalysts that can drive corporate growth and consumption. Thus far, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has balked at Trump's stern requests to lower the fed funds rate, with some media outlets suggesting the president may "fire" the central bank chief. But can Powell actually be fired? Truth be told, no one knows with 100% certainty, because there's no historical precedent to such an act, nor any legal clarity. Although the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 allows members of its Board of Governors to be "removed for cause by the president," there's no definition of what justifies cause. The assumption would be that Trump's administration would have to prove Powell neglected his duties as Fed Chair or was somehow negligent and caused irreparable harm to the U.S. economy. It's a tall order for which no precedent exists. Furthermore, a ruling from the Supreme Court in May intimates that America's highest court views members of the Board of Governors as having unique protections. Specifically, the Supreme Court ruling noted, "The Federal Reserve is a uniquely structured, quasi-private entity that follows in the distinct historical traditional of the First and Second Banks of the United States." Without justifiable cause, it would appear Donald Trump has little chance of removing Powell from office prior to the end of his four-year term as Fed Chair in May 2026. But what if I told you this Wall Street showdown has likely been decided -- and it has absolutely nothing to do with the legality of whether or not Fed Chair Powell can be fired? President Trump's tariff policy has made this battle a moot point While all eyes are on interest rates, the foundation of this rivalry between Donald Trump and Jerome Powell boils down to inflation. The key inflationary measure here is the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U), which takes into account more than 200 specific spending categories, each of which has its own unique percentage weighting. These percentage weightings allow the CPI-U to be expressed as a single figure each month, which makes it incredibly easy to decipher if prices are, collectively, rising (inflation) or falling (deflation) on a month-to-month or year-over-year basis. While there's some level of subjectivity introduced by the Fed when making its interest rate decisions, there's more of an impetus to reduce the fed funds rate when the prevailing rate of inflation is declining. Traditionally, the Fed has targeted an arbitrary long-term inflation rate of 2%. Although the prevailing inflation rate has come way down from a peak of 9.1% on a trailing-12-month basis in 2022, it's still above the central bank's long-term target of 2%. More importantly, inflation appears to be reaccelerating due to the implementation of Donald Trump's tariff and trade policy. On April 2, Trump unveiled a 10% base global tariff, as well as introduced aforementioned reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries that have historically run adverse trade imbalances with America. With the president pausing and/or adjusting these reciprocal tariff rates on numerous occasions since his initial announcement, there's been a bit of lag in determining whether or not these tariffs are having an inflationary impact. Following the release of the June inflation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, it's pretty evident that Trump's tariff and trade policy is providing upward pressure on prices. Between May 2025 and June 2025, the trailing-12-month CPI-U inflation rate jumped by 32 basis points to 2.67%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, climbed to 2.9%. This represents the fastest uptick in core inflation since February 2025. In other words, Trump's tariff and trade policy looks to be ending this Wall Street face-off before it has a chance to ramp up. The June inflation data strongly suggests there's no immediate catalyst to lower the fed funds rate. The uncertainty created by Trump's tariffs, including the lack of differentiation between input and output tariffs, which threatens to further drive up the prevailing rate of inflation, implies that pricing pressures will persist for the foreseeable future. The narrative investors should be monitoring isn't whether or not the Fed's monetary policy is hindering corporate growth. Rather, it's whether Trump's tariffs will adversely impact corporate hiring, labor productivity, sales, and profits as they did when the president implemented tariffs on China in 2018 to 2019. Last week, the S&P 500 hit its third-priciest valuation during a continuous bull market when back-tested 154 years (based on the Shiller price-to-earnings ratio), which means there's virtually no margin for error on Wall Street. With more businesses alluding to tariff-related uncertainty in their sale and profit forecasts, it's crystal clear that attention needs to be paid to the inflationary impact(s) of Trump's tariff policy on Wall Street's most influential companies. Should you invest $1,000 in S&P 500 Index right now? Before you buy stock in S&P 500 Index, consider this: The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the for investors to buy now… and S&P 500 Index wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut could produce monster returns in the coming years. Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $624,823!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,064,820!* Now, it's worth noting Stock Advisor's total average return is 1,019% — a market-crushing outperformance compared to 178% for the S&P 500. Don't miss out on the latest top 10 list, available when you join Stock Advisor. See the 10 stocks » *Stock Advisor returns as of July 29, 2025 Sean Williams has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy. Wall Street's Biggest Showdown -- Donald Trump vs. Jerome Powell -- Has Likely Already Been Decided but Not for the Reason You Might Think was originally published by The Motley Fool Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
31 minutes ago
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4 Types of Workers Could Save Big Under Trump's Overtime Tax Break
President Donald Trump's signature One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) includes a provision that allows employees who work more than 40 hours per week to deduct a portion of their overtime pay from their taxable income. The 1938 Fair Labor Standards Act (FLSA) guarantees pay of at least 1.5 times a worker's regular wages for every hour worked over 40 in a given seven-day period. Traditionally, time-and-a-half pay has been subject to federal income taxes, including those that fund Medicare and Social Security. However, from 2025 through 2028, eligible taxpayers can deduct up to $12,500 in overtime pay, or $25,000 for joint filers, without itemizing, provided they earn less than $150,000, at which point the deduction begins to phase out. However, the FLSA and its numerous subsequent updates have carved out exceptions for executives, administrative and professional employees, those in certain computer and sales occupations and others who are exempt from overtime pay protection. Therefore, many Americans won't benefit from the new rule. This article profiles those who likely will. Check Out: Read Next: Nurses According to the Lore Law Firm, at least 18 states have laws regulating mandatory overtime for nurses. In much of the country, however, these crucial healthcare workers are often required to work more than 40 hours per week, whether they want to or not, to compensate for persistent staffing shortages. As early as 2004, the CDC was reporting on the heavy toll that mandatory overtime was taking on nurses and their patients, citing fatigue, burnout, diminished work performance and increased error rates due to long hours of stressful work. Roughly 20 years later, ShiftMed reported that little had changed. The OBBBA stands to give millions of nonexempt nurses a break — on their taxes, at least, if not at their workplaces. See More: Law Enforcement Like nurses, law enforcement officers play a crucial role in society that often requires them to work overtime. Also like nurses, many seek extra hours voluntarily, but often don't have a choice. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Occupational Outlook Handbook page for police and detectives, 'Paid overtime is common, and shift work is necessary to protect the public at all times.' Tradespeople Overtime is common in many trades occupations. Like police officers and nurses, the nature of their work often makes extra hours an unavoidable part of the job. The following are some of the many circumstances that can keep them working beyond 40 hours per week. Emergency repairs Installations with tight deadlines Frequent calls after regular business hours Spikes in demand during extreme weather events The tradespeople most likely to work overtime — and therefore benefit from the new OBBBA provisions — are: Welders Plumbers Electricians Construction workers HVAC techs Manufacturing Employees According to the BLS, the average manufacturing employee works between 3.6 and 3.7 hours of overtime per week, or roughly 14.6 hours of time-and-a-half pay per month. That's nearly 190 overtime hours per year — much of which will now be tax-deductible. In fact, reliance on overtime is so common in the sector that the industrial staffing firm Traba wrote a report with striking similarities to the ShiftMed report on the nursing crisis. Chronic understaffing as high as 34% in some industries forces manufacturing companies to pay staggering levels of overtime compensation, with some employees racking up 500 overtime hours per year or more. Similarly to nursing, the result is often burnout, diminished performance and preventable accidents, often to the most seasoned and reliable employees. More From GOBankingRates 5 Cities You Need To Consider If You're Retiring in 2025 This article originally appeared on 4 Types of Workers Could Save Big Under Trump's Overtime Tax Break Sign in to access your portfolio
