Robust 11.3% surge in Kharif sowing bodes well for inflation outlook in 2025: ICICI Bank
The growth has been largely driven by a significant rise in rice sowing, which is up 47.3 per cent YoY, and pulses, which have seen a 37.2 per cent YoY jump.
It stated "Kharif sowing is off to a good start (+11.3 per cent YoY) led by rice (47.3 per cent YoY) and pulses (37.2 per cent YoY) which bodes well for food inflation outlook this year".
The report noted that monsoon rainfall gained momentum in the second half of June after being in deficit during the first half.
For the full month of June, rainfall stood at 109 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), slightly above the Indian Meteorological Department's (IMD) forecast of 108 per cent. In comparison, June rainfall last year was at 108 per cent of LPA.
A regional analysis of rainfall showed that several key agricultural states received rainfall above the LPA. These include Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Tamil Nadu, Uttar Pradesh, Karnataka, and West Bengal.
However, some states such as Bihar, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, and Chhattisgarh have experienced deficient rainfall.
On a zonal basis, Northwest India received the most rainfall at 42 per cent above LPA, followed by Central India at 25 per cent above LPA. Meanwhile, South India recorded rainfall that was 3% below LPA, and East and Northeast India were 17 per cent below LPA.
As of June 30, only 10 out of 36 meteorological subdivisions across the country recorded deficient rainfall. This is a marked improvement from last year when 16 subdivisions had reported deficient rainfall by the same time, indicating a better distribution of monsoon this year.
Looking ahead, the report also highlighted that rainfall in July is expected to remain favourable. The IMD has forecast rainfall at 106 per cent of LPA for the month, the report added that it should further support kharif sowing activities and improve the overall agricultural outlook.
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