Why these underdogs can stun Wimbledon's biggest stars once again

Independent

27-06-2025

Tatjana Maria 's run to the Queen's title two weeks ago was not just a fairytale. It was also a reminder of the unpredictability of women's tennis, most of all on grass. On a surface that rewards huge serves and power-hitters, Maria's win was a reminder that slice, craft and guile have their place too.
Is Wimbledon really that much of an outlier among the majors? One fact frequently trotted out is that the last eight Wimbledons have gone the way of eight different players. But that says more about the era of women's tennis that we are in than anything specific to SW19.
For context, of the last eight times the other three slams have been contested, there have been six Australian Open, five French Open, and eight US Open champions. You'd have to go back 11 years to find a repeat winner in New York: Serena Williams, on a run of three titles.
Perhaps it's more that, as Maria showed, a variety of gamestyles can thrive on the turf. There's an element of the sudden turnaround from clay, too, as the blink-and-you-miss-it three-week buildup to Wimbledon throws some off-kilter. Whatever the reason, there's always an element of magic in the Wimbledon women's draw. It could be anyone's year.
How to narrow the contenders down? Grass suits the ferocity and pace of Madison Keys' groundstrokes. 2024 runner-up Jasmine Paolini has not reached the same heights as last season, but has consolidated her place in the world's top four and reached a doubles final on the grass in Berlin. Elina Svitolina is a consistent force at all majors; Amanda Anisimova has shown repeated flashes of her brilliance this year, including a run to the Queen's final.
The last three champions – Barbora Krejcikova, Marketa Vondrousova, and Elena Rybakina – have all endured difficult spells since lifting the trophy, dogged by injuries and poor form. A new thigh issue for Krejcikova, which cropped up in Eastbourne, may be fatal for her chances. But Vondrousova's immaculate grass-court game was apparent as she sealed the Berlin title last week. Rybakina has had an indifferent couple of years, but her clean, destructive groundstrokes are hard to top on grass.
Coco Gauff is the form pick, reaching three straight finals across the clay-court swing and winning a maiden Roland-Garros title earlier this month. Wimbledon was her breakout tournament, when she reached the fourth round as a fresh-faced 15-year-old all the way back in 2019. She has since gone further at every other major, but grass remains a surface she thrives on. A first-round exit in her first grass-court tournament is likely to be no more than a blip; not everyone can be Carlos Alcaraz.
She has proven herself against all her likely opponents, her relentless defence fracturing Aryna Sabalenka 's peerless offence in Paris. What feels more significant is her own, renewed faith in her ability. Who knows – she may have manifested a Wimbledon title too.
Sabalenka herself is, as ever, a serious contender. The Belarusian has reached the final in six of the last nine majors she has contested, and her huge game is well-suited to grass. But cracks have crept into her game, and her mind, in the last few months. She was open about how crushing her Australian Open final defeat was; Roland-Garros seemed to only magnify that, as she ranted and railed at her box, and as she hit harder and harder, trying to punch through Gauff, her game completely unravelled.
The 27-year-old has been vocal about the work she has done to iron out her serving yips and self-doubt. Over the last half-season, those issues have reared their heads again. She has now lost three slam finals in a row, and lead by a set in two. Sometimes it seems that she is her own worst enemy on court.
And what of Iga Swiatek? The Pole dropped out of the world's top two this May for the first time since 2022, and has now slid further down to world No 8. She has not won a title since the 2024 French Open; she has not even reached a final. Defeat in the last four at Roland Garros this year – including a 6-0 collapse in the final set, when her self-belief seemed to melt away entirely – was a real nadir.
But that means that things can't, really, get any worse for the 24-year-old. She has had a positive start to her grass-court season, reaching the quarter-finals at the Bad Homburg Open. It is not a surface that has historically agreed with her, but she was Wimbledon girls' champion in 2018, so a run of form on the turf is not out of the question. She heads to SW19 in the rare position of being an underdog. Perhaps the comparative lack of pressure on her shoulders will now allow her to swing freely.
Recent history suggests that is the way to win. It has frequently been an outsider who lifts the Venus Rosewater Dish, but not a totally unheralded name – Vondrousova was just the first unseeded player to win the title. So three years on from her run to the semi-finals, could it be Tatjana Maria's time?