The Dalai Lama is India's trump card, so why hide it?
This cautious approach has cost India dearly. In 2003, Atal Bihari Vajpayee formally recognised Tibet as part of China, hoping to secure reciprocal recognition of Sikkim and ease border tensions. Instead, China doubled down on supporting Pakistan, blocked India's Nuclear Suppliers Group membership, and continued claiming Arunachal Pradesh. India surrendered leverage whilst China conceded nothing.Under Narendra Modi, there have been tactical shifts—the Dalai Lama's 2017 visit to disputed Arunachal Pradesh sent clear signals to Beijing. Yet after the 2017 Doklam standoff, India quickly retreated, with officials instructed to avoid the Dalai Lama's 60th exile anniversary events. Only following the deadly 2020 Galwan clash did Modi publicly wish the Dalai Lama happy birthday—a symbolic departure from years of silence.Beijing's paranoia about Tibet reveals India's untapped potential. China fears that any recognition of Tibetan autonomy could inspire unrest across Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Hong Kong. This anxiety represents India's greatest leverage, yet New Delhi has rarely capitalised on it systematically.The stakes are escalating dramatically. Approaching 90, the Dalai Lama's succession will trigger a geopolitical crisis. Beijing insists on appointing the next Dalai Lama through its puppet institutions, whilst the Tibetan leader has declared his reincarnation will occur outside Chinese control. This threatens to create rival Dalai Lamas—one Chinese-backed, another supported by the exile community.India faces a defining choice: recognise a successor chosen by Tibetan exiles and directly challenge Beijing's legitimacy in Tibet, or remain silent and abandon Tibetans to Chinese control. After decades of cautious diplomacy, India's Tibet card is about to turn nuclear. The question remains whether New Delhi will finally play its hand or continue as Tibet's polite innkeeper rather than its guardian.- EndsMust Watch
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