Can Musk's new party shake up American politics?
The question preoccupying Elon Musk on 4th July, to which he probably already assumed the answer, was, 'Should we create the America Party?'
Of the 1.2 million users who replied, 60 per cent said 'yes', which was enough for Musk to press on: 'Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom'.
The idea is that a new, more pro-business, fiscally responsible party could emerge and take disillusioned voters from both the Republicans and Democrats. After falling out with President Trump in May when he exited his role leading Doge, the government's efficiency drive, Musk now plans to take revenge and mastermind a new third party that will end the status quo.
Musk's announcement did not come as a great surprise to figures in Trump's orbit. Ever since the tech billionaire left his White House role, he has threatened to use his remaining powers to inflict electoral pain on the Republican party. In recent weeks, as the war of words between Trump and Musk has worsened, this has moved from simply withholding funding to creating a rival party. The question is: will it actually change the political landscape?
There's a long history of third parties forming to great fanfare and then struggling to break through against the weight of the two party system. In 1992, Ross Perot ran as an independent candidate for president and managed 19 per cent of the popular vote, but no electoral college votes.
Musk, however, plans to start small. While any new party would struggle to field a candidate for president and come up against many structural issues, the question is whether by having a narrow focus Musk can buck the trend. The plan is to begin by targeting the 2026 midterms: 'One way to execute on this would be to laser-focus on just two or three Senate seats and eight to ten House districts', Musk wrote.
Here Musk says he is channelling his inner Epaminondas, referring to the Theban statesman who in 371 BC defeated a Spartan army at Leuctra. Through a mix of leadership, innovation and focus, the military tactician permanently changed the balance of power among the Greek states.
With Republicans already concerned about the prospect of losing the House next year, the idea is that a few wins in key battles would allow Musk's party to play kingmaker. He wrote: 'Given the razor-thin legislative margins, that would be enough to serve as the deciding vote on contentious laws, ensuring they serve the true will of the people.' The party would then in theory have a deciding vote when it comes to key issues on spending and the future direction of politics. Musk's dislike of Trump's ' Big Beautiful Bill ' was one of the key reasons for their falling out, with Musk seeing it as piling up debt the US cannot afford.
However, for all the talk of a new movement or a gap in the market so far the cast of characters voicing interests reads a little like a list of individuals who have fallen out of favour with Trump. Anthony Scaramucci, Trump's exiled former communications adviser, has said he'd like to talk. A few Harris-backing billionaires have also voiced interest.
The initial response from both Democrats and Republicans is one of cautious scepticism. 'It won't go anywhere; it's a bid to stay relevant that will fade away,' one Maga figure declared. Meanwhile, Democrats wonder if it could actually benefit them by taking votes away from the official Republican candidate in tight races with North Carolina and Maine, both seen as key battlegrounds. The Democrat hope is Musk splits the vote on the right, allowing their candidates to sneak ahead.
What Musk has in his favour is money and online reach. Already members of Maga are threatening to quit X in protest. These parts of the Maga movement have ridiculed the idea that a man who wasn't born in the USA — he hails from South Africa — could convincingly set up a party that claims to be the real party of America.
Musk has already found out the hard way that money isn't everything. After piling millions behind a Republican candidate race for the Wisconsin Supreme Court earlier this year, the Democrat-backed candidate, Susan Crawford, won.
As a senior Republican put it: 'I don't think Musk has much of a chance to buy a seat that will have an impact. If he takes on a Trump-backed Republican he will probably lose in the general election because the Democrats will be motivated to vote against the Musk candidate and Trump will not show up. Musk, without Trump, is a man without a base. Speaker Boehner used to say that 'a leader without followers' is just taking a walk in the woods'.
However, Musk's backers argue that he has been written off many times before and has the focus, money and influence to go and succeed where others failed. What is clear is that Musk has no plans to leave the battlefield.
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