Russias Faltering Oil Flows Crimp Gains From Rally in Prices

Mint

18-06-2025

Russia failed to reap the full rewards of the recent rally in oil prices, or the increase in its own OPEC output target, as exports slid to a seven-week low.
Seaborne crude shipments averaged 3.31 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 15, a drop of 1% from the period to June 8. The more volatile weekly figure fell by about 440,000 barrels a day from the previous week's three-month high.
Lower flows largely offset higher oil prices to leave the gross value of Moscow's exports up by just 1% in latest four-week period. On a weekly basis, their value was down by 5%.
The faltering volumes came as oil prices climbed with Israel and Iran trading missile attacks since Friday. Weekly average prices for Russia's crude exports gained by about $4 a barrel last week and will likely rise by even more this week, barring a rapid de-escalation in hostilities.
Russia's oil production should be rising too, with its OPEC output target increasing by more than 180,000 barrels a day between March and June. But more than half of that is eroded by deeper cuts Moscow promised to compensate for earlier over-production, and output in May was unchanged from the previous month. The decline in shipments in the latest week was driven by a sharp downward adjustment from the Arctic port of Murmansk.
Exports are also likely being eroded by rising refinery runs, with Russia's processing plants returning from seasonal maintenance. Crude-processing rates averaged 5.41 million barrels a day in early June, up by about 140,000 barrels a day from the average for most of May.
Separately, Russia is seeking to pipe more crude to China via Kazakhstan, reducing the need for long sea voyages from ports on its Baltic, Black Sea and Arctic coasts. Moscow wants to increase the flow by 25% from the current agreement to pump 10 million tons a year.
A total of 30 tankers loaded 22.42 million barrels of Russian crude in the week to June 15, vessel-tracking data and port-agent reports show. The volume was down from 25.52 million barrels on 34 ships the previous week.
Crude flows in the period to June 15 stood at about 3.31 million barrels a day on a four-week average basis, down by 50,000 barrels a day from the period to June 8. Using more volatile weekly figures, they slumped by about 440,000 barrels.
The drop in flows was driven by lower shipments from the Arctic port of Murmansk. There was one shipment of Kazakhstan's KEBCO crude during the week from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk and one from the Baltic port of Ust-Luga.
The gross value of Moscow's exports fell by about $70 million, or 5%, to $1.35 billion in the week to June 15. The drop in flows was partly offset by higher average prices.
Export prices of Russian Urals crude from the Baltic, Black Sea and Pacific all rose by about $4-4.20 a barrel. The price of key Pacific grade ESPO averaged $63.11 a barrel in the week to June 15, above the $60 a barrel G-7 price cap for the first time since April. Delivered prices in India were up by $3.80 at $68.50 a barrel, all according to numbers from Argus Media.
On a four-week average basis, the export price of Russia's crude shipments rose for a third week, with Urals from both the Baltic and the Black Sea and Pacific ESPO all up by $1.50-1.60 a barrel.
Using this measure, the value of exports rose by 1% in the period to June 15 to about $1.29 billion a week.
Observed shipments to Russia's Asian customers, including those showing no final destination, slipped to 2.86 million barrels a day in the 28 days to June 15, down from 2.98 million barrels a day in the four weeks to June 8.
The figures include about 400,000 barrels a day on ships from Western ports showing their destination as Port Said or the Suez Canal, or those from Pacific ports with no clear delivery point and a further 30,000 barrels a day on tankers yet to signal a destination.
Flows to Turkey in the four weeks to June 15 averaged about 390,000 barrels a day, their highest in almost five months. That helped to propel shipments to the eastern Mediterranean, where Moscow has also been supplying crude to Syria, to the highest in just under a year
This story forms part of a weekly series tracking shipments of crude from Russian export terminals and the gross value of those flows. The next update will be on Tuesday, .
All figures exclude cargoes identified as Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade. Those are shipments made by KazTransoil JSC that transit Russia for export through Novorossiysk and Ust-Luga and are not subject to European Union sanctions or a price cap. The Kazakh barrels are blended with crude of Russian origin to create a uniform export stream. Since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Kazakhstan has rebranded its cargoes to distinguish them from those shipped by Russian companies.
Bloomberg classifies ship-to-ship transfers as clandestine if automated position signals appear to be switched off or falsified — a tactic known as spoofing — to hide the two vessels involved coming together to make the cargo switch.
Vessel-tracking data are cross-checked against port-agent reports as well as flows and ship movements reported by other information providers including Kpler and Vortexa Ltd.
If you are reading this story on the Bloomberg terminal, click for a link to a PDF file of four-week average flows from Russia to key destinations.
With assistance from Sherry Su.
This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.