Is It Time to Just Buy Nike Stock as a Turnaround Takes Hold?
It's been frustrating to be a Nike (NYSE: NKE) investor the past few years, but investors cheered after new CEO Elliott Hill indicated that the worst was now behind the company after it reported its fiscal fourth quarter results.
Nike shares surged on the results, which topped low expectations, although the stock is still down on the year and more than 20% lower over the past five years.
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Let's delve into Nike's recent earnings to see why now is a good time to pick up shares in the iconic sneaker and apparel maker.
The worst is over
Hill, who has been on the job for less than a year, has been working hard to help turn around Nike's business following the missteps of former CEO John Donahoe. Hill's predecessor neglected innovation and pushed the company's classic footwear segment, which consists of brands like Air Jordan and Air Force 1. He also made a big direct-to-consumer push while neglecting important wholesale relationships.
Hill has been working to rewind the damage done by Donahoe through his Win Now action plan. The main tenet of his plan is to return Nike to its innovation roots. He has reorganized the business to drive sports-specific innovation across its three main brands: Nike, Jordan, and Converse. The company has seen some early traction with new innovation, with its Vomero 18 running shoe becoming a $100 million-plus franchise with strong sell-through just 90 days after launch.
The company is also working to mend its relationship with wholesalers. On this end, it recently announced a new partnership with Amazon, where the e-commerce giant will carry a select assortment of Nike footwear, apparel, and accessories. Nike also hired retail marketing, visual merchandising, and account managers to work with large wholesalers to help with their presentations and create better consumer connections.
In addition, the company is looking to implement sharper marketplace segmentation in order to serve its customers at different price points. At the same time, it is looking to position Nike Digital and Nike Direct as premium destinations. This means you might be able to get some lower-priced Nike products at a retailer like Kohl's, while Nike will have its high-end products with the newest technology on its apps and in its stores.
While Nike's actual results were still weak, Hill said it's time to turn the page and that he expects Nike's results to improve moving forward.
For fiscal Q4, Nike's revenue declined 12% to $11.1 billion, with Nike brand revenue down 11% to $10.8 billion. Nike Direct revenue sank 14% to $4.7 billion, as digital sales collapsed 26%. This is largely due to the company repositioning its digital app as a premier destination. Wholesale revenue, meanwhile, dropped 9% to $6.4 billion.
China remained a weak spot, with revenue sinking 21% in the quarter to $1.5 billion. Nike has been heavily discounting in China to reset its inventory.
North America revenue dipped 11% to $4.7 billion, with apparel sales down 7% and footwear revenue falling 13%. EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) sales sank 9%, while Asia Pacific and Latin America sales decreased by 8%.
Heavy discounting to clear inventory continued to weigh on Nike's gross margins, which fell 440 basis points to 40.3%. Between declining sales and gross margins, its earnings per share (EPS) plunged 86% in the quarter to $0.14.
The company said that tariffs would be a significant new cost headwind, representing an estimated $1 billion in gross costs. It said the tariffs would hurt its gross margin by 75 basis points this fiscal year, with the bigger impact in the first half. It is currently working with suppliers and retail partners to mitigate the costs and impact on consumers.
Is Nike stock a buy?
While Nike's progress has not yet shown up in its results, Hill is helping lay the groundwork for the company to get back on track. He's been leaning into innovation, rebuilding wholesale partnerships, repositioning Nike's app and stores as premium destinations, and working to segment the brand into both premium and core offerings depending on the channel.
While the stock trades at a pretty hefty valuation, with a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of around 39 times analysts' 2026 estimates, that's largely because Nike's earnings have been depressed. If Hill can get Nike's EPS back to the $3.73 it was in fiscal year 2024, the stock would trade at under 20 times earnings.
Nike still has work to do, but now could be a good opportunity to buy the stock when the company is showing signs of a turnaround and the stock is still down on the year.
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John Mackey, former CEO of Whole Foods Market, an Amazon subsidiary, is a member of The Motley Fool's board of directors. Geoffrey Seiler has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Amazon and Nike. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
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