Cardinals second-half storylines to watch, starting with the trade deadline

New York Times

16-07-2025

We blinked, and the first half of the St. Louis Cardinals' season came and went. Despite preseason projections expecting the worst for this transitioning ball club, the Cardinals went 51-46 and will enter play Friday just 1 1/2 games out of the last National League wild-card spot.
There are 65 regular-season games remaining, but the next couple of weeks could dictate the Cardinals' year. Will the organization attempt to make a playoff push? Or will it concede come the trade deadline and focus on 2026 and beyond?
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Welcome to the second half. We can't predict ball, but we know one thing: It won't be boring.
Here's what to watch as the Cardinals kick off a mad dash through the summer months, beginning with a three-game set against the Arizona Diamondbacks starting Friday at Chase Field:
The Cardinals are one of several bubble teams that probably won't commit to buying or selling (or holding) until days before the July 31 deadline.
'Where we are in the week leading up, or the 72 hours leading up to the trading deadline, may affect how we make our decisions,' president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said in early July.
Mozeliak maintained through June that the team's performance in July would drive his deadline decisions. The issue? The Cardinals are 4-7 this month with multiple players battling through injuries. Iván Herrera was activated off the IL the day before the break after missing 3 1/2 weeks with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. His time behind the plate is expected to be limited for the remainder of the season, as he's suffered two lower-half injuries already this season and the Cardinals want to protect his health as much as possible. Taking Herrera's place on the IL is Lars Nootbaar, who played through several weeks of rib discomfort before being diagnosed with a left costochondral strain. He is expected to miss at least two weeks.
Nolan Arenado (right index finger sprain) has tried his best to avoid the IL, but he's played in just four games this month and completed only two of them. He'll use the All-Star break as a reset and hope to return to game action Friday. Jordan Walker (appendicitis) has cleared all health concerns, but remains in Double A on a rehab assignment. The Cardinals want him to fine-tune his approach and correct some swing issues before calling him back up. However, a position player can be on a rehab assignment for a max of 20 days. Walker began his rehab stint on June 28, which points to the team needing to make a roster decision before the second half begins.
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While the Cardinals try to get healthy, their depth needs to step up. Thomas Saggesse has struggled since being called up in mid-June, hitting .133/.152/.156 over 14 games. José Fermin and Yohel Pozo have made solid contributions offensively, but they are designated to be role players, not starters. If the Cardinals can come out of the break with better health, they'll feel much more confident about their chances to be buyers. If not, they could be a major factor in the trade market. St. Louis has several impact relievers on expiring deals (Ryan Helsley, Phil Maton and Steven Matz) and is believed to be shopping starting pitcher Erick Fedde as well.
'The Cardinals can be a linchpin for a lot of teams,' one major-league executive recently said. 'They have a lot of players teams are interested in.'
Regardless of whether the team buys or sells, player development will still be the focus. But manager Oli Marmol will be comfortable prioritizing the players who are producing.
'In my opinion, we've given opportunity to everybody at this point, so we'll mix and match and continue to play guys that are deserving,' Marmol said.
The Cardinals have already tabbed Herrera as their everyday DH, while acknowledging it complicates matters for Nolan Gorman. It also doesn't allow days off from the field for regulars like Arenado, Brendan Donovan or Willson Contreras. But St. Louis can't (and shouldn't) take at-bats away from Herrera, who has already established himself as its best all-around hitter.
Alec Burleson slugged his way into more playing time and looks to be one of the deserving players Marmol referenced. He hit .293 with 11 homers and an OPS above .800 in the first half and will continue to be a starter, likely as a corner outfielder in Nootbaar's absence.
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There will also be an emphasis on finding consistent at-bats for Gorman after what he showed with regular playing time in June. Dating back to June 1, Gorman has played in 34 games and hit .245 with a .500 slugging percentage and eight homers. He packs major value as a left-handed bat off the bench, but St. Louis does not want to limit his role to that. It will be tricky, but the club believes there's a way to ensure Gorman ample playing time even with Herrera at DH.
Walker looks to be the odd man out once he returns. Multiple stints on the IL have limited him to 55 games, and his production has been lackluster when he is healthy. Walker hit .210/.267/.295 in the first half with just three home runs, disappointing for a player the organization identified as a priority coming into the year. Herrera's surge allowed the Cardinals to stay afloat while Walker struggled. With St. Louis battling to stay in contention, Walker could hit the back burner.
'We've given ourselves a shot while (developing),' Marmol said. 'I'll continue to find ways, and I think we've threaded that as much as we can. I don't think we'll veer from it, but I'll lean heavier as we get further into the (second half) on playing guys that are deserving. It's not just runway for the sake of runway.'
The Cardinals deserve credit for how they handled the health of their pitching staff in the first half. Miraculously, St. Louis did not lose one impact starter or reliever to the injured list. The meticulous scheduling by Marmol and pitching coach Dusty Blake is a huge reason why. It allowed pitchers in the rotation to take most of their starts on a six-day schedule instead of the traditional five-day turn. But some luck was involved here as well, and the club would be the first to acknowledge that.
The area where the rotation's luck has started to run out is the contact rate. St. Louis often plays with fire with its low swing-and-miss, high ground-ball rate pitching staff. That's come back to bite the Cardinals lately. The rotation averaged a 5.02 ERA in June. They've fared even worse in July. Sonny Gray, Miles Mikolas, Andre Pallante, Matthew Liberatore and Erick Fedde have combined to throw just 53 innings this month and have allowed a total of 36 earned runs. Fedde, in particular, has drawn ire from fans, but the Cardinals will keep him in the rotation in an attempt to stabilize his potential trade value.
Michael McGreevy should be a regular starter come the second half, assuming the Cardinals can create room for him. Pallante and Liberatore are on track to record the most innings in a season in their careers, which raises some concern internally. It doesn't seem likely that Matz, who has thrived in relief, will stretch out and revert to a starter's role.
Top pitching prospects Quinn Mathews and Tekoah Roby aren't ready for the big leagues, and the new player development regime will not rush either pitcher up out of need. You know the adage: A team is only as good as its starting pitching. It remains to be seen if the Cardinals have the depth to bolster them through the second half.
(Top photo of Masyn Winn: Dilip Vishwanat / Getty Images)