logo
Tax and spending package of €9.4bn to form basis of Budget 2026

Tax and spending package of €9.4bn to form basis of Budget 2026

Irish Times20 hours ago
A €9.4 billion tax and spending package will form the foundation of the upcoming
budget
, the Government said on Tuesday in the Summer Economic Statement (SES).
Still, the Coalition warned it may have to 'recalibrate' its strategy, reducing the size of the overall package, if there is a 'deterioration in the tariff landscape' over the coming months.
Budget 2026 will include additional spending €7.9 billion and tax cuts amounting to €1.5 billion.
The SES, which sets out the spending parameters for the budget, was approved by Cabinet earlier on Tuesday, the same day the Coalition published its revised National Development Strategy.
[
Ireland's €156bn tax windfall: Where has it gone?
Opens in new window
]
The figures come against a backdrop of warnings from the Central Bank and State spending watchdog, the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council (Ifac), about the trajectory of Government spending.
In its latest fiscal assessment report, Ifac said in June that current spending grew at a rate of 5.9 per cent during the first five months of this year amid higher-than-expected spending on education, health and justice when the Government forecasts are for a full-year increase of 1.4 per cent.
The Central Bank, meanwhile, has repeatedly told the Coalition that it must strengthen Ireland's fiscal position in preparation for what could be a permanent hit to economic output stemming from shifting US trade policies.
In his pre-budget letter to Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe, Central Bank governor Gabriel Makhlouf warned last month that public spending will need to increased by around €265 billion over the next 25 years to pay for an ageing population, more housing and cutting emissions.
Amid what he described as 'heightened uncertainty' around the global economy, Mr Makhlouf urged the Government to broaden the tax base, amid concerns about how reliant the exchequer is on a small number of companies and individuals to pay maintain its tax revenue.
Orange background

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Comments

No comments yet...

Related Articles

Government's NDP is 'fantasy economics', says O'Callaghan
Government's NDP is 'fantasy economics', says O'Callaghan

RTÉ News​

time2 hours ago

  • RTÉ News​

Government's NDP is 'fantasy economics', says O'Callaghan

The Government's National Development Plan is based on a "very optimistic scenario" and "falls into the realm of fantasy economics", Social Democrats deputy leader Cian O'Callaghan has said. Coalition leaders finalised the revised NDP yesterday, which is the Government's scheme to build infrastructure such as roads, rail, electricity connections and sewage schemes over the coming years. The Government said that total spending over the coming five years as part of the plan will be almost €100 billion. Speaking on RTÉ's Morning Ireland, Deputy O'Callaghan said the plan was published "as if there was going to be no major fallout from the tariffs and the potential trade war with the US". Mr O'Callaghan, who is his party's spokesperson on public expenditure and reform, said "it is likely that it will not be possible" for the Government to deliver on all the promises made during the election due to tariffs. He stressed that the Government has published statements and forecasts "based on a 0% tariff rate". Funding for housing in the NDP will be the largest part of the €100bn plan, while the Coalition has promised to cut the rate of VAT for the food service industry. Mr O'Callaghan said that the Government should focus on accommodation and food, adding that his party does agree with targeted support for the hospitality industry. He said investment in infrastructure in Ireland is behind comparable countries, with a 25% lower rate of investment in infrastructure in recent years in Ireland. "So that means, in September when children go back to school, you've got kids in schools with leaking roofs where the rain water comes in and it is captured in buckets," he said. He added that the country is "way behind" in terms of public transport, adding that there are "huge pressures" around housing and healthcare, where he said investment is "absolutely key". Mr O'Callaghan also said there are significant gaps in funding in healthcare, adding that elective hospitals are underfunded in the plan. He also said that Ireland has a "much less productive" construction sector than other countries and described the NDP as "the vaguest document" the Government has ever published.

Search-and-rescue hangar approved for Weston Airport
Search-and-rescue hangar approved for Weston Airport

Irish Times

time3 hours ago

  • Irish Times

Search-and-rescue hangar approved for Weston Airport

Weston Airport, part-owned by Stripe co-founder Patrick Collison , has been granted permission to build a new search-and-rescue (SAR) hangar. Following an appeal, including objections from locals, An Bord Pleanála ratified the local council's decision to grant permission for the new infrastructure despite a recommendation from their inspector to reject the planning. The proposed hangar will serve to house the Bristow-operated Dublin search and rescue team, which has been relocated to Weston Airport from Dublin Airport. Hugh Dooley has the details. A €9.4 billion tax and spending package will form the foundation of the upcoming budget , the Government said on Tuesday in the Summer Economic Statement (SES). READ MORE Still, the Coalition warned it may have to 'recalibrate' its strategy, reducing the size of the overall package, if there is a 'deterioration in the tariff landscape' over the coming months. Budget 2026 will include additional spending of €7.9 billion – an increase of 7.3 per cent annually, and well above the Government's 5 per cent spending rule – and tax cuts amounting to €1.5 billion, writes Ian Curran. David McWilliams on how 'big incentives' to build could save Dublin city Listen | 36:51 The big questions arising from the Summer Economic Statement will, however, be about spending, writes Cliff Taylor in his analysis. Restoring control on day-to-day spending will be a big challenge. And if the budget numbers tighten, then the State will face the choice of borrowing to finance its increased investment plans. In the middle of all this is the commitment to billions into two funds each year, to help pay future bills. Reliance, the Cork-headquartered engineering and robotics component distributor where former táinaste Simon Coveney was appointed as a non-executive director earlier this year, reported revenues of close €20 million last year as domestic sales jumped 14 per cent. Accounts filed recently for the Reliance Bearing and Gear Company, which celebrates a century in business this year, reveal turnover climbed by more than 11 per cent to just under €19.6 million in 2024, Ian Curran reports. Some first-time buyers are getting their mortgage wrong, and it's costing them. Stiff competition for homes means being laser focused on getting a loan offer, and fast. However, getting the wrong mortgage could leave you in the wrong house, in the wrong location and on the hook for more debt than necessary. Your mortgage is going to shape your finances for decades to come, so here are the top 10 things you need to get right, writes Joanne Hunt. The correct, writes John McManus in his weekly column, but pretty much politically impossible thing to do about the housing crisis is to level with the electorate and say that fixing the problem is going to take far longer than anyone is prepared to admit. And that it will probably never be fixed if the definition of fixed is that we achieve European levels of housing provision. AIB has moved to require staff eligible for hybrid working to return to its branches and offices three days a week on a phased basis, introducing the tightest rules among Irish retail banks. The new regime will take full effect from the start of 2026, a spokesman said. AIB had more than 10,400 employees at the end of last year. Joe Brennan reports. If you'd like to read more about the issues that affect your finances try signing up to On the Money , the weekly newsletter from our personal finance team, which will be issued every Friday to Irish Times subscribers.

Big spending package advanced despite warnings on numbers becoming tighter
Big spending package advanced despite warnings on numbers becoming tighter

Irish Times

time4 hours ago

  • Irish Times

Big spending package advanced despite warnings on numbers becoming tighter

The summer economic statement is normally the Government's key piece of communication before the budget. But this year's comes with a serious health warning. The numbers may be revised, we are told, if the economy is hit by further tariffs. And the tariffs in place already and the Government's budget plans mean that the surplus next year will be 'considerably smaller' than the €6.3 billion anticipated in the forecasts published during the spring. The numbers, in other words, are getting tighter. In this context, it is notable that the Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe and Minister for Public Expenditure Jack Chambers , put forward a planned budget package of a still relatively generous €9.4 billion, including a tax package of €1.5 billion. Spending growth is pencilled in at 7.3 per cent, with a 6.4 per cent rise in day-to-day spending. This may be a reduction from the average of 9.4 per cent-plus seen on average since 2019, but it remains well in advance of inflation. READ MORE Current spending is due to rise by 6.4 per cent next year. In recent years there have been regular overruns and this will be the case again in 2025. Importantly, the Ministers warned that the figures will have to be revised if the tariff situation worsens, as it may well do. So we will have to wait and see what level of tax revenue growth is anticipated next year and what budget surplus the Department of Finance anticipates. [ Tax and spending package of €9.4bn to form basis of Budget 2026 Opens in new window ] This is what will determine whether the budget numbers need to be adjusted – and if so, by how much. In recent years, the basic package has also been extended significantly on budget day by a cost-of-living package, including once-off measures. We are told this will not feature this year, probably. Battles may still lie ahead here. David McWilliams on how 'big incentives' to build could save Dublin city Listen | 36:51 If there is a need to adjust the figures, we are told that protecting capital investment and the large €102 billion five-year programme outlined in the revised National Development Plan will be the priority. Large cuts to State investment during the austerity years after the financial crash have cost the Republic dear. That said, if there is a need to revise the figures, there will surely be tensions. As things stand, some €850 million of the €1.5 billion tax package will be eaten up by the promised cut in the hospitality VAT rate. This will leave small pickings for income tax cuts, unless revenue is raised elsewhere. Applying the VAT cut to just food-based firms, while administratively difficult, would save some of the cash. But political difficulties loom here. [ NDP: €275bn spend over next 10 years, with housing receiving biggest boost Opens in new window ] The big questions will, however, be about expenditure. Restoring control over day-to-day spending will be a big challenge. And if the budget numbers tighten, then the State will face the choice of borrowing to finance its increased investment plans. In the middle of all this is the commitment to billions into two funds each year, to help pay future bills. We still have to see how the Department of Finance sees all this fitting together. The summer economic statement, bar its indications of the budget day package, did not take us much further, except for a warning that if a trade war erupts, then all bets are off.

DOWNLOAD THE APP

Get Started Now: Download the App

Ready to dive into a world of global content with local flavor? Download Daily8 app today from your preferred app store and start exploring.
app-storeplay-store