Trump rattled the F-35 program, but allies aren't bailing out just yet

Yahoo

15-04-2025

A couple of NATO allies are exploring alternatives to the F-35 stealth fighter.
A handful of countries that operate the aircraft told BI that they are still committed to the jet.
Analysts said there aren't many good reasons to walk away from the program just yet.
The Trump administration stirred up some turbulence for the F-35 stealth fighter program, but even though a couple of allies have expressed uncertainty, there hasn't been a wave of partners jumping ship, at least not yet.
The Trump administration's dismissive attitude toward Europe's defense and other tensions saw Canada and Portugal reconsider their interest in the F-35 stealth fighter jet — a fifth-generation plane made by US defense giant Lockheed Martin and one of America's top weapons exports.
It opened the door to a possible European alternative to the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter. Saab has signaled that there are talks underway about the JAS 39 Gripen fighter.
Other countries that operate the F-35 told Business Insider that they have no plans to walk away from the platform right now. Some emphasized their commitment to the fighter and desire to preserve the close defense cooperation with the US.
Lockheed has said that F-35 sales matters are between the US government and buyers.
The F-35 is in service with militaries around the world and has seen extensive combat experience since its first flight roughly 20 years ago. The world's most expensive weapons program is grappling with maintenance and sustainability challenges, but it is considered a top fifth-generation fighter.
Portugal's defense minister said last month that it should reconsider replacing its F-16s with F-35s. He said the US stance on security issues is concerning. Shortly after, Canada's defense chief said Ottawa would look into possible F-35 alternatives amid tensions with the Trump administration over tariffs and other threats.
Both Portugal and Canada are NATO allies, although Lisbon is not currently an F-35 customer. Ottawa, meanwhile, is an original program participant, which puts it in a somewhat unique position.
A Canadian defense ministry spokesperson previously told BI the country is not canceling its planned F-35 procurement; aircraft deliveries are set to begin next year. They said that the military is "in the early stages of scoping the review in a way that is both efficient and thorough."
So far, Portugal and Canada are the only two countries to publicly suggest they could pivot away. The defense ministries of four F-35 program participants — the UK, Australia, Denmark, and the Netherlands — expressed their continued support for the plane in statements to BI last month.
The UK said that the F-35 is part of its new defense industrial strategy. Australia said it was "committed to continued investment" in the aircraft. Denmark and the Netherlands specifically highlighted their close cooperation with the US and their intentions to preserve the relationship.
Poland, another customer, said its F-35 program will continue on schedule. A defense ministry spokesperson told BI: "Currently, there are no decisions on the possible termination of the agreements signed with the American side."
Germany, likewise, has signaled it is sticking with the program as well. Berlin is waiting for an order of 35 F-35s.
Analysts pointed to several reasons why countries are staying with the F-35, among them being the commitment to the program and the amount of work that would be required to pivot away from the aircraft to something new.
Richard Aboulafia, an aviation expert and managing director of the US consulting firm AeroDynamic Advisory, explained that many countries already have a large number of F-35s they've ordered and have paid for the planes even if they haven't yet been delivered.
"It's too late to turn back. What can they say?" he told BI.
Aboulafia also said that the F-35 is a better fighter than any of its competition (like the Eurofighter Typhoon jet), and allies would need "very strong reasons" to abandon the aircraft.
Increasingly capable surface-to-air missile systems and fighter upgrades make fifth-generation capabilities appealing, especially as sixth-gen capabilities are still years away.
The contract for the first US sixth-gen fighter aircraft, the F-47, was only recently awarded. And despite claims to the contrary, drone technology isn't to the point that it can replace sophisticated crewed fighters.
Unlike the fourth-generation fighters, the F-35 features all-aspect stealth, advanced avionics, high-end sensors, and networking solutions, giving the jet the ability to execute a range of missions, from air-to-air combat to strike, and also quarterback a fight.
The jet comes in three variants. The F-35A features a cannon, the F-35B is capable of short-takeoff/vertical landing that is useful for amphibious assault ships and some European aircraft carriers, and the F-35C is built for US Navy carrier operations.
Allies overseas operate the A and B variants. Japan has an order for over 100 F-35As and more than 40 F-35Bs, which can be operated from its Izumo-class destroyer vessels. The UK has bought Bs for its Queen Elizabeth-class carriers.
US allies and partners have been able to find key combat solutions for a wide range of missions using the F-35's capabilities. Israel, for example, demonstrated the F-35's combat power in impactful strikes on Iran.
Mark Cancian, a retired Marine Corps colonel and a senior advisor on defense and security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said that the F-35's maintenance, training, and parts supply process are too extensive and expensive for a country to change plans on a dime.
"Most countries struggle to maintain a single fighter aircraft. They could not support two different supply chains and training pipelines," Cancian told BI.
While other countries have yet to abandon the F-35 program, they might possibly decide to do so down the road if a more viable alternative presents itself. Right now, though, the jet is really the only fifth-generation aircraft in town, the only option available to the US and its allies.
Aboulafia said some F-35 customers may still have a question mark looming over them. He stressed that the bigger issue is that larger customers still buying F-35s, like the UK and Japan, could shift their focus to other multinational efforts to develop fighter aircraft.
Two potential examples are the Global Combat Air Programme, a project led by the UK, Italy, and Japan to jointly build a sixth-generation fighter, and the KAI KF-21 Boramae, a South Korean-led initiative.
Read the original article on Business Insider