John Ivison: On campaign's final weekend, the Grits have the momentum
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At a campaign event at Seneca College in this commuter community 40 km north of Toronto, Carney was asked to grade his own campaign performance.
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The problem with being successful is that it breeds hubris, a quality voters tend to find toxic.
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But the Liberal leader is a quick study and sidestepped a curve-ball that could have struck him squarely between the eyes. 'Every study I've ever taken, it is the teacher who gives the grades,' he said.
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It was a prudent response. The polls give the Liberals a four-point cushion nationally, with regional break-outs in Ontario and Quebec looking even more rosy. Carney consistently outpolls Pierre Poilievre on perceived competence and likeability.
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The race does not always go to the candidate ahead in the polls, but that's the way to bet. Betting markets give the Liberals a 71 percent chance of forming government, compared to a 20 percent chance for the Conservatives. A certain Donald Trump faced similar odds in 2016 and triumphed.
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But the momentum is with the Liberals. You can see it and feel it on the ground. On Friday night, Carney campaigned in an NDP-held riding, London—Fanshawe, that has been held by the mother-daughter dynasty of Lindsay and Irene Mathyssen since 2006.
On Saturday evening, Carney is scheduled to hold a rally in Windsor West. The seat is held by veteran NDP MP, Brian Masse, who has won there eight times.
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It is a measure of the rise in Liberal fortunes, at the expense of the NDP, that Masse's seat is now considered to be in play.
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There is no sentiment in politics, and in return for propping up the government for the past two years, the Liberals are intent on wiping New Democrats from the electoral map.
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The King—Vaughan seat is currently held by the Conservatives, but it too is considered a potential pick-up for the Liberals.
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The reason is the story of this election: Carney has been the candidate who has best addressed the anxieties about the Trump administration felt by millions of Canadians.
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He has talked about 'the biggest crisis of our lifetimes' and the rhetoric has felt overblown at times, particularly in the weeks between Trump bloviating about Canada becoming the '51st state.'
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