Is Iran set to leave the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
As the bombs keep landing and Israel continues its devastating attacks on Iran's nuclear program, it's easy to forget Iran remains a signatory of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, or NPT.
Up until Israel's strikes Iran was still submitting to inspections by the UN's International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The nuclear watchdog has continued to gather data on Iran's nuclear program, but Tehran has increasingly placed severe restrictions on access.
But with the devastating damage to its nuclear installations, some analysts believe this confrontation could drive Iran out of the treaty — and actually provide more impetus to develop nuclear weapons.
"Iran's reaction would be, 'What was the point of adhering to the Non-Proliferation Treaty?'" Middle East historian Ibrahim al-Marashi told 7.30.
"'We might as well, even with all the damage done, we should get a nuclear weapon. As our ultimate guarantor of survival.'"
In an interview with 730 this week, Iran's ambassador to Australia Ahmad Sadeghi denied his country is developing a nuclear weapon.
"The nuclear program of Iran is for the peaceful measures," Mr. Sadeghi said.
The NPT came into force in 1970 and currently more than 190 countries are signatories. Its aim is to stop the spread of nuclear weapons.
Inspections in Iran have become more difficult since the US walked away from an agreement with the country in 2018. That deal saw the US and other countries loosen economic sanctions in return for Iran agreeing not to develop a nuclear weapon.
"The deal was working until Donald Trump was elected in 2016," said Barbara Slavin from not-for-profit think tank the Stimson Centre. She's been analysing American-Iranian relations for four decades.
"[Trump] began criticising the agreement and he finally left it in 2018, while Iran was still in full compliance with that deal. Now following that, Iran gradually began to ramp up the programme again, to the point where it was very, very advanced."
The day before Israel launched its first attacks, the IAEA declared Iran was in breach of its NPT obligations and said it could not assure that Iran's nuclear programme was only peaceful.
"Just before the Israelis attacked, the IAEA board of governors actually issued a censure resolution against the Iranian government for its lack of cooperation," Ms Slavin said.
"I think the Israelis thought that strengthened their case to attack Iran."
Israel has long argued that a nuclear-armed Iran would threaten its existence.
But Ms Slavin and many analysts point out there's an important caveat to that argument: Although it is not officially acknowledged, Israel is believed to possess multiple nuclear weapons.
"So if Israel really felt that its existence was at stake, it could use nuclear weapons against Iran or any other adversary. That's why Israel developed nuclear weapons in the 1960s," Ms Slavin said.
Mr al-Marashi says that contradiction — that Iran is part of the NPT and Israel isn't — is hard to ignore.
"A lot of commentators or just regular people would say that there's a double standard: that Iran [belongs to] the NPT, but that Israel practises a policy of nuclear opacity," Mr al-Marashi said.
"Not being a member of the NPT … [Israel] deliberately tries to be vague about its nuclear arsenal to keep people guessing."
While not confirming it has nuclear weapons, Israel argues a nuclear capable Iran poses an existential threat because its leaders have repeatedly said they want to destroy Israel.
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ABC News
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- ABC News
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The Australian
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The Age
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