Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba reportedly preparing to resign by end of August
Mr Ishiba, who has faced mounting criticism from within his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after his coalition lost its majority in Sunday's upper house election, has reportedly informed close aides of his intention to resign.
Japan's Yomiuri newspaper reported that Mr Ishiba told his inner circle on Tuesday that he would explain how he planned to take responsibility for the election results once trade negotiations with the US had been resolved.
The Mainichi and the Sankei newspapers also reported that his formal announcement is expected next month, once key national events conclude.
On Wednesday, US president Donald Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform that he had finalised a 'massive' trade deal with Japan involving $550bn in Japanese investments into the US economy. The agreement also includes a reduction of tariffs on Japanese goods from a proposed 25 per cent to 15 per cent.
"This is a very exciting time for the United States of America, and especially for the fact that we will continue to always have a great relationship with the Country of Japan,' he wrote on Truth Social.
Mr Ishiba responded cautiously when asked about the impact of the deal on his political future. 'I can't say until I scrutinise the outcome of the agreement,' he told reporters, adding that he intended to speak with Mr Trump once he had been briefed by Japan's chief trade negotiator, Ryosei Akazawa.
Auto exports, which represent more than a quarter of Japan's total exports to the US, will also see reduced tariffs under the agreement, Mr Ishiba noted, calling the 15 per cent rate 'the lowest figure among countries that have a trade surplus with the US'.
Despite widespread calls for him to step down, the prime minister had argued that it would be irresponsible to vacate his position amid ongoing economic challenges. 'I will stay in office and do everything in my power to chart a path toward resolving these challenges,' Mr Ishiba said in a news conference on Monday.
He is expected to meet senior LDP figures and three former prime ministers later on Wednesday to discuss the implications of the election results and his likely resignation.
Once Mr Ishiba formally steps aside, the ruling party must organise a leadership election to select his successor. However, with the LDP-Komeito coalition no longer holding a majority in either house of parliament, the new leader may face difficulty securing the required support in a parliamentary vote to become prime minister.
August is traditionally a politically significant month in Japan. This year, it includes commemorations of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the anniversary of the end of World War II on 15 August, and the Tokyo-hosted international conference on African development from 20 to 22 August. Sources suggest Mr Ishiba is likely to resign only after these events have concluded.
Meanwhile, Mr Ishiba's approval ratings have dropped sharply in recent days, with a major national poll showing support for his administration falling to just above 20 per cent – a threshold often considered unsustainable for a sitting government.
'What this means is that we're sort of entering a period of speculation as to who's going to be the next leader,' William Chou, deputy director of the Japan Chair at the Hudson Institute, told Bloomberg. 'Right now it's just a lot of speculation.'
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The old law also let people 55 or older sell their primary home and exclude up to $125,000 (married or single) in accumulated profits, but only once in a lifetime. As a result, homeowners had to keep meticulous recordkeeping from every house they owned. Some lawmakers and academics believed the law created distortions in the market, such as discouraging homeowners from downsizing, moving into rental housing or from higher-cost to lower-cost markets as their circumstances changed. The new rules The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 was intended to reduce these distortions, stimulate sales, simplify recordkeeping and eliminate capital gains taxes for almost all homeowners. It exempted the first $250,000/$500,000 in profits from capital gains tax, whether or not the seller bought a new house. Profit is what's left after you subtract what you paid for the house and eligible improvements from your sales price minus commissions and other selling expenses. Taxpayers with gains under the limits generally do not have to report the sale on their tax return. Any profit over the exemption is taxed as a capital gain. The federal rate on long-term capital gains is 0%, 15% or 20% depending on income. That's lower than the rate on 'ordinary income,' such as from a job or self-employment. A large taxable gain from the sale of a home could also trigger an additional 3.8% 'net investment income tax.' A bulge in income can also force some seniors to pay substantially more for Medicare for one year. California also excludes the first $250,000/$500,000 from the sale of a primary home, but it taxes capital gains just like ordinary income, at rates up to 13.3%. Homeowners can use this exemption as often as every two years, as long as each home has been their primary residence for at least two out of five years before the sale. What happened after 1997? Initially, the new law did eliminate tax for the vast majority of homeowners, but as home prices soared, so did the number who owed tax. Between 2000 and 2003 – a few years after the rule change – only about 38,000 home sales per year nationwide, or 1.3% of all existing home sales, had gross capital gains (excluding homeowner improvements) that exceeded $500,000, according to Cotality. By the end of 2023, almost 230,000 homes or 7.9% of all home sales nationwide – and almost 29% in California – were over the limit. A study commissioned by the National Association of Realtors found that 34% of homeowners today could already exceed $250,000 in capital gains and 10% have potential gains above $500,000. Those numbers could be 56% and 23%, respectively, by 2030 and nearly 70% and 38% by 2035. 'These outdated (exemption) thresholds are already distorting the housing market and locking up inventory, and it is getting worse every year,' the association wrote. What research says Several academic studies found that the tax law change in 1997 did increase housing turnover, and may have contributed to the sharp runup in home prices from the early 2000s until 2008, when the bubble burst. The Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 'played a significant role in facilitating the boom in the residential real estate market that began shortly after its enactment,' Pete H. Oppenheimer, then a professor at the University of North Georgia, wrote in a 2014 paper. It created an opportunity for homeowners to receive tax free income when they resold their principal residences, which made homeownership more attractive and caused the real estate market to 'expand in volume and price,' he added. It also helped 'real estate investors and professionals to achieve tax free income … by converting rental property into a personal residence.' A Federal Reserve study published in 2008 concluded that the 1997 Act 'reversed the lock-in effect of capital gains taxes on houses with low and moderate capital gains.' However, it 'may have generated an unintended lock-in effect on houses with capital gains over the maximum exclusion amount.' Its author Hui Shan found that the short-term effect was 'much larger' than the long-term effect. A 2011 paper by Andrea Heuson and Gary Painter also found that housing turnover 'increased significantly' after 1997. 'The surprising result is how broad based the change in trading behavior is, appearing across all age ranges and impacting both trading up and trading down,' they wrote. Based on his past research, Painter predicted that eliminating the tax on home sales would increase sales. When he left his job at the University of Southern California to teach at the University of Cincinnati, Painter kept his home near Long Beach and rented it out because he didn't want to pay capital gains tax, but also in case he wanted to return to California one day. It's not just capital gains tax Capital gains are not the only culprit locking up inventory. Many homeowners with mortgages around 3% are reluctant to move, now that rates are hovering around 6% to 7%. That is the 'big 1,000-pound gorilla that has reduced mobility," Painter said. And in California, many sellers would face a big increase in their property tax assessment if they sold a long-held home and bought another. Proposition 19, passed by voters in 2020, was supposed to boost inventory by making it easier for people 55 or older to transfer their assessment from their current home to a new one, thus avoiding or reducing a property-tax increase. It also made it harder for children to keep a parent's low property tax base on an inherited home. It appears that more Bay Area seniors did move after Prop. 19 took effect, at least in the first few years. But results varied by county and the effects wore off over time. In Contra Costa, requests by seniors for Prop. 19 transfers went from around 200 per year before 2020 to about 1,000 a year after two years, but since then has tapered off to around 600 a year, said Gus Kramer, the county's assessor. In Santa Clara County, Prop. 19 'has been a lot less successful than anticipated. The biggest negative by far is capital gains,' DeLeon said. Unintended consequences If Congress eliminated capital gains tax on homes, Painter believes more people would move out of California. For people contemplating a move, losing their low property-tax base 'is not an issue, but (capital gains) taxes are. This would be an opportunity to cash in on their equity,' he said. And instead of making homes more affordable, it could increase prices. 'More generous tax treatment of homes could bid up home prices on the demand side, exacerbating concerns about housing affordability,' Joseph Rosenberg , a senior fellow with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center, said via email. San Francisco Chief Economist Ted Egan concurs. 'The expectation of reduced taxes upon sale would likely result in modest upward pressure on housing prices in places, like San Francisco, where profits on home sales often exceed the threshold,' he said via email. 'This in turn would lead to a modest increase in property taxes.'
