Cocoa Prices Plunge on Projections for a Larger 2025/26 Ghana Cocoa Crop
Cocoa prices plunged to 1-week lows Tuesday due to the outlook for larger cocoa production in Ghana, the world's second-largest cocoa producer. The Ghana Cocoa Board on Tuesday projected the 2025/26 Ghana cocoa crop to increase by +8.3% y/y to 650,000 from 600,000 MT in 2024/25.
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The rebound in current cocoa inventories is also bearish for prices. Since falling to a 21-year low of 1,263,493 bags on January 24, ICE-monitored cocoa inventories held in US ports climbed to a 9-3/4 month high of 2,363,861 bags on June 18.
Cocoa prices have support from concerns about tighter cocoa supplies from the Ivory Coast. Monday's government data showed that Ivory Coast farmers shipped 1.698 MMT of cocoa to ports this marketing year from October 1 to June 29, up +6.8% from last year but down from the much larger +35% increase seen in December. There are reports that heavy rain in the Ivory Coast is keeping cocoa growers off their farms and is disrupting the ongoing mid-crop cocoa harvest.
Signs of smaller cocoa exports are supportive of cocoa prices, following last Wednesday's news that Nigerian May cocoa exports fell by -29% y/y to 14,110 MT. Nigeria is the world's fourth-largest exporter of cocoa.
In late May, NY cocoa rallied to a 5-month nearest-futures high on concerns about weather in West Africa. Despite the recent rain in West Africa, drought still covers more than a third of Ghana and the Ivory Coast, according to the African Flood and Drought Monitor.
Cocoa prices also have support due to quality concerns regarding the Ivory Coast's mid-crop cocoa, which is currently being harvested through September. Cocoa processors are complaining about the quality of the crop and have rejected truckloads of Ivory Coast cocoa beans. Processors reported that about 5% to 6% of the mid-crop cocoa in each truckload is of poor quality, compared with 1% during the main crop. According to Rabobank, the poor quality of the Ivory Coast's mid-crop is partly attributed to late-arriving rain in the region, which limited crop growth. The mid-crop is the smaller of the two annual cocoa harvests, which typically starts in April. The average estimate for this year's Ivory Coast mid-crop is 400,000 MT, down -9% from last year's 440,000 MT.
Concern about consumer demand for cocoa and cocoa products is bearish for cocoa, driven by fears that tariffs will exacerbate already high cocoa prices. On April 10, Barry Callebaut AG, one of the world's largest chocolate makers, reduced its annual sales guidance due to high cocoa prices and tariff uncertainty. Also, chocolate maker Hershey Co. recently reported that Q1 sales fell by 14% and said it anticipated $15-$20 million in tariff costs in Q2, which will boost chocolate prices and further weigh on consumer demand. Mondelez International reported weaker-than-expected Q1 sales, stating that consumers are cutting back on snack purchases due to economic uncertainty and high chocolate prices.
Weaker demand from cocoa processors was seen in Q1. Q1 North American cocoa grindings fell -2.5% y/y to 110,278 MT. Q1 European cocoa grindings fell -3.7% y/y to 353,522 MT. Q1 Asian cocoa grinding fell -3.4% y/y to 213,898 MT.
On May 30, the International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) revised its 2023/24 global cocoa deficit to -494,000 MT from a February estimate of -441,000 MT, the largest deficit in over 60 years. ICCO said 2023/24 cocoa production fell -13.1% y/y to 4.380 MMT. ICCO said the 2023/24 global cocoa stocks/grindings ratio fell to a 46-year low of 27.0%. Looking ahead to 2024/25, ICCO on February 28 forecasted a global cocoa surplus of 142,000 MT for 2024/25, the first surplus in four years. ICCO also projected that 2024/25 global cocoa production will rise +7.8% y/y to 4.84 MMT.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
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