‘They'd win if it was tomorrow': on the streets of Reform's London

Times

4 hours ago

Few people have their finger on the pulse of London politics like Tony Travers, the London School of Economics policy professor, whose crystal ball is unusually sharp in the capital.
'If there was a general election tomorrow, Reform would win [the seat] by a country mile.' He is talking about Hornchurch and Upminster, a parliamentary constituency within the London Borough of Havering that has for decades been a Conservative stronghold. Its demographics are mirrored around the suburban, outer ring of the capital.
On the high streets across Havering the signs of change are everywhere. Shuttered shops, overstretched services and a council wrestling with a £74 million budget shortfall have left many residents disillusioned. For them, the promises of mainstream politics ring hollow — and more and more are looking elsewhere for answers.
Enter Reform UK. Local memberships have soared, according to two of the party's East London representatives, to almost 3,000 in the last year. With one Reform member already in the London Assembly, support in the capital is growing.
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Debbie Darvey had worked all her life before she suffered two strokes. Now she worries about being able to heat her home in winter. The 67-year-old has never lived anywhere but Harold Hill, near Romford. Of her area she says simply: 'It's like all your childhood memories are slowly disappearing.
'Because they're knocking this down, they're knocking that down, building new things. And it's in a way quite sad.'
She has no problems with the current council administration, which is led by the Havering Residents Association ('they're polite and they're putting solar panels on my roof'), but she will be voting Reform in both the next local and general elections. 'I'm not sure what they do but then I think they can't do no worse than what Labour's doing.'
Nationally the Conservatives have fallen to fourth place in the polls — behind Reform, the Lib Dems and Labour. Another poll, by Find Out Now in May, found Reform were now ahead of the Tories in the capital too.
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'This new London polling is strong for Reform and it's before we even get going,' Nigel Farage said.
Last July, Julia Lopez, Hornchurch and Upminster's Conservative MP, had her majority slashed from 23,308 to just under 2,000, with Reform taking second place. The nearby constituencies of Barking, Dagenham and Rainham and Erith and Thamesmead also saw Reform become the second party.
The area's political history offers a glimpse into the current mood. In the early 2000s the neighbouring borough of Barking and Dagenham saw a surge of support for the British National Party (BNP), which won 12 council seats. While the BNP's influence quickly collapsed, the sentiment it tapped into — frustration with national politics and concerns about immigration — has lingered in the area.
'Many of my constituents have roots in the East End or Essex, and this seat reflects the character of both,' Lopez said. 'They are deeply patriotic, aspirational and hard-working — people who put family and country before all else.'
Gary Mitzi, 60, was a lifelong Conservative voter until he voted Reform UK at the general election and is the personification of the demographic the upstart party is on the road to capturing.
'There's too many lies, people have just had enough now,' Mitzi said. 'I've had enough.
'When I walk around the corner and I hear people talking in their own language I go, 'Are you going to talk English or what, mate?'
'They don't speak English and we are living in England. I want to be out of this country, I don't want to live here. I'll put up with it for another eight years, then I'm moving to Malta.'
The borough's population grew by 10.5% between 2011 and 2021, reaching approximately 262,100, outpacing both London (7.7%) and England (6.6%), driven by families moving out of inner-city areas in search of more affordable housing. In April a petition was launched to secure a £35 million investment for Queen's Hospital after the trust saw 'record-breaking' numbers of patients in March. While Havering remains one of the safest boroughs in London, residents also raised concerns about an increase in antisocial behaviour.
Does Mitzi think Reform can fix it? 'No,' he said. 'No one's going to do it. But we need change.'
The local branch of Reform UK is optimistic about its prospects in Havering's next local elections, held in May of next year.
'We're not parodying national politics,' said Philip Hyde, the chairman of the East London Reform UK branch and a former UKIP councillor — he was dismissed from the party following a 'dispute' with its Havering leader. 'People want to know what's going to affect their lives directly here.
'People are writing to us saying, 'What do I need to do to get involved in politics? They feel that for their children and grandchildren they have to take an interest.'
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Nick Palmer, Reform UK's candidate for Hornchurch and Upminster who beat Labour last July, said even 'school kids want to get involved'.
While it remains to be seen how councils like Kent, Durham and Doncaster will perform — some of the ten councils Reform took control of in May — critics argue that the party's rhetoric far outweighs its capacity to deliver.
It certainly faces significant challenges in translating its hopes into actionable policies.
Ray Morgon, leader of Havering council since 2022 and head of the HRA, is sceptical of the party's promises.
'Reform are making promises of things they will do as a council which they don't have the power to do,' he says. 'They're playing to what people want to hear. But the reality of running the council is very, very different.'
Despite this, the rise of Farage's party in places like Havering, Barking and Dagenham, and Bexley — where Reform got 22 per cent of the vote last July — shows they are 'becoming the main opposition to Labour in many outer London boroughs', according to Travers.
Reform could also find success in the London borough council elections in Bromley, bordering Kent, and Sutton, where the majority of voters backed Leave in the referendum. 'Reform's focus is clear,' Travers said. 'They'll target areas with a high Leave vote and where traditional party loyalties are breaking down.'