The House's Policy Bill Would Lose Money. Could Trump's Tariffs Replace It?
Monthly government revenue from customs duties
Source: U.S. Treasury Department
By The New York Times
The income figures are among the first concrete indicators of the costs imposed by Mr. Trump's trade policies. Although inflation data has yet to reflect price increases from tariffs, companies may soon pass at least part of those extra bills on to their customers. The rest could show up on their balance sheets in the form of narrower profit margins.
The president has made the case that tariffs can generate income for the government while incentivizing manufacturers to build their products in America. But even May's haul remains a tiny share of the federal government's typical income. The vast majority comes from individual and corporate income taxes.
Government revenue from …
Source: U.S. Treasury Department
Note: Revenues spike in April when most tax returns are filed.
By The New York Times
Nonetheless, House Republicans have argued that the tariff revenue will be enough to offset the projected losses from their huge tax and spending bill, which is currently being hashed out in the Senate.
Estimated revenue impact of tariffs vs. tax cuts
+$200 billion
Many of the new tax cuts would expire by the start of 2029
Tariffs would start to offset the tax cuts in 2029
−200
Proposed tax cuts would lead to revenue losses at first,
even taking into account
tariff revenues
−400
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
+$200 billion
Many of the new tax cuts would expire by the start of 2029
Tariffs would start to offset
the tax cuts in 2029
−200
Proposed tax cuts would lead to revenue losses at first,
even taking into account
tariff revenues
−400
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
2031
2032
2033
2034
Source: Tax Foundation
Note: Neither the budget nor the tariff revenue estimates incorporate increased borrowing costs incurred by higher deficits.
By The New York Times
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