‘A choice between Eluned Morgan or Nigel Farage': Jo Stevens on Welsh Labour's struggles in Cardiff
It's still too early for many people other than dog walkers to be enjoying Roath Park in leafy north Cardiff, but it's the first stop of three for Keir Starmer's secretary of state for Wales, Jo Stevens.
After coffee with the Guardian on Thursday, Port Talbot beckons for a meeting of the government-funded transition board that is supposed to help the traditionally steelmaking town navigate the closure of Tata Steel's blast furnaces – still a raw wound for many Welsh voters – and then it's on to Llandudno for the Welsh Labour conference.
The spring summit is being watched more closely than usual. A year into government in Westminster, Labour is on tricky ground. In Wales, where the party has led every government since devolution in 1999, polling suggests it will win its lowest ever vote share in next May's Senedd election, behind Plaid Cymru and Reform UK.
'Every poll is a snapshot of a moment in time … but we do have a challenge on our hands,' Stevens said.
The MP for Cardiff East, the most powerful Welsh politician in Westminster, is not from the capital. Her parents, a meteorologist and a teacher, were from the Welsh valleys, but she was born in Swansea and grew up in Flintshire. Today she lives in Roath, and her two grown up sons are out of the house.
Stevens studied law at Manchester University and worked in trade union law for 20 years before standing in 2015 for the now-abolished seat of Cardiff Central. 'Being a lawyer was good training for parliament, because as an MP, you do a lot of casework,' she said. 'I loved my job. You can change the law as a lawyer, but it doesn't happen very often. The only way you can really effect change is to go into parliament.
'It took me ages to decide to go into politics but in the end it was an instinct, and I went for it.'
After serving in Jeremy Corbyn and Keir Starmer's shadow cabinets, including two stints as shadow secretary of state for Wales, in the 11 months since Labour swept into office in Westminster Stevens has had her best chance so far to make a difference.
She can already point to a string of achievements: she is most proud of securing £21bn for Wales in the 2024 autumn budget – the largest settlement for Wales in real terms since devolution – and this month's spending review, in which record amounts of funding for Wales's neglected railways and clearing dangerous coal tips were announced.
An offshore wind project in the Celtic Sea will bring thousands of badly needed jobs to Port Talbot and powering millions of UK homes. Increased spending has allowed Eluned Morgan's Welsh Labour government to bring down NHS waiting list times, which are worse than anywhere else in the UK.
Whether this will be enough to stop Welsh Labour haemorrhaging votes in the Senedd next May remains to be seen. Unsurprisingly, Stevens has harsh words for Welsh opposition parties that have criticised Starmer's government.
'Plaid Cymru are the party of grievance,' she said. 'You could give them the moon on a stick and they'd still complain.
'I don't think they will be able to form a majority government. Wales has a choice next year between Eluned Morgan or Nigel Farage, because even if he's not on the ballot, he will be calling the shots.'
Yet Steven's Welsh Labour colleagues are on edge. Morgan, the first minister, can no longer blame the Conservatives for failing to deliver for Wales, and there have been signs of infighting between the administrations.
Labour Senedd members have privately said they are agog at the fact that only five Welsh Labour MPs are rebelling against the UK government's welfare bill, despite research showing it will disproportionately impact people in Wales.
How deep or severe the disconnect between Cardiff and London is should become apparent at this weekend's conference.
'Eluned and I are friends,' Stevens said. 'We don't always agree, but we walk away from every conversation knowing I've got her back, and she's got mine.
'She's gone out and listened and decided the priorities for her government, and the UK government is working with her to deliver them. We are a team.'
Stevens has just under a year to hope what she can deliver for Wales makes a difference in the Senedd elections, and prove how well two Labour administrations can work together. If not, 100 years of the party's dominance in Wales could be about to end.
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