The fighting between Iran and Israel raises questions about Russia's influence in the Middle East

San Francisco Chronicle​

5 days ago

When the United States joined Israel this weekend in attacking Iran's nuclear sites, the outrage and condemnation flowed from Russia. Moscow's U.N. ambassador said Washington was opening 'a Pandora's Box,' and Tehran's top diplomat rushed to the Kremlin to seek support from President Vladimir Putin.
But in his meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on Monday, Putin offered only more words of condemnation of the strikes as 'unprovoked aggression' with 'no basis or justification.'
Analysts say that muted response without any apparent military aid is likely to disappoint Iran and reflects Russia's diminished influence in the Middle East, where it already has lost a key ally and is seeking a delicate diplomatic balance. Moscow could instead realize some short-term benefits from the Iran-Israel war, such as increased oil prices to aid Russia's sinking economy, or distracting the world's attention from its 3-year-old war in Ukraine.
An ally in need of help
Russia's ties with Iran have grown since the start of Putin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Tehran supplying Moscow with Shahed drones and the technology to build them. The drones have been a key weapon in the war.
The Kremlin praised the new era of Russian-Iranian relations in January 2025, when Moscow and Tehran signed a strategic partnership agreement aimed at nurturing economic, political and military ties.
Its timing was significant, says Renad Mansour, a senior research fellow for the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House.
'This was done after (2024), which was a very bad year for Iran," he said, having lost regional allies amid the ouster of Bashar Assad in Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah.
"Iran wanted to rely on Russia,' he said.
But in practice, the agreement has meant little since Israel's attacks on Iran. It only forbids Russia and Iran from helping any country that attacked the other and is not a mutual defense pact.
'I think from the Iranian perspective, there's been some disappointment in how much Russia is willing to support,' Mansour said. 'They're feeling now that when we're facing this colossal giant of Israel and the U.S., Russia isn't really stepping in.'
The Kremlin has bristled at suggestions it is abandoning or neglecting Iran. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov on Tuesday denied claims that Moscow had not given meaningful support to Tehran.
Many people want 'to spoil the partnership between Moscow and Tehran,' he said.
'Russia has in fact supported Iran with the clear position it has taken. And, of course, we intend to further develop our relations with Iran,' he said.
Asked Monday whether Russia would provide equipment such as air defenses to Tehran, he said 'everything depends on what the Iranian side, on what our Iranian friends say.'
Israel has destroyed most of Iran's air defenses, and replacing them would not be easy, even if Russia wanted to.
Iran desperately needs such systems, Arman Mahmoudian, a research fellow at the Global and National Security Institute, told The Associated Press.
'(But) Russia itself needs these very weapons — both air defense systems and missiles — for its own war effort in Ukraine.' he said. 'The likelihood that Russia will meet Iran's requests is minimal.'
That need will only become more acute if Iran is unable to keep supplying Russia with attack drones, which are being increasingly deployed by Iranian forces, which is likely to leave little capacity for exports, Mahmoudian said.
'Another critical factor is that Israel has extensively targeted Iran's drone and missile production facilities. Even if the war ends soon, Iran will need time to recover and rebuild these sites,' he added.
Moscow's balancing act in the Middle East
Iranian demands are not the only ones that Moscow is balancing. Russia also wants to maintain good relations with Israel. Both countries' militaries are active in Syria, and they have been careful to maintain contacts in order to avoid direct clashes. Israel has remained largely neutral during the war in Ukraine, wary of antagonizing Russia because of its large Jewish population.
Putin said Friday at a conference in St. Petersburg that Israel was home to nearly 2 million people from Russia and other former Soviet nations, 'a factor that we always have taken into account.'
Moscow also is paying close attention to its relationship with Washington, which has warmed since President Donald Trump returned to office this year. Phone calls have resumed between leaders in both countries for the first time since the war in Ukraine.
'For now, Trump shows no inclination to endorse the harsh new sanctions against Russia which a bipartisan majority in the U.S. Senate has proposed,' says Holger Schmieding, chief economist at Berenberg bank. 'But if Putin were to annoy Trump over Iran in any significant way, Trump may change tack and impose new heavy sanctions on Russia.'
New complexities and opportunities for Russia
While the Israel-Iran war has unleashed new complexities for Moscow, it also has created opportunities.
The confrontation in the Middle East is likely to distract Western attention and resources from the war in Ukraine and make it easier for Russia to pursue its battlefield goals.
Rising oil prices would also benefit Moscow, which relies heavily on fuel exports to boost its budget, allowing the Kremlin to fund weapons production, fight rising inflation, and provide the significant financial bonuses that entice Russian men into military service.
Moscow also has sought on several occasions to position itself as a potential negotiator in the Iran-Israel war, although Putin himself later appeared to back away from such a role after Trump dismissed the idea of Kremlin mediation while fighting continued in Ukraine.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said Tuesday that Moscow is ready to help settle the conflict, but will not act as a mediator.
Ksenia Svetlova, a former member of Israel's parliament who was born in Moscow and is an associate fellow at Chatham House, says 'Russia lacks any mechanism of pressure or leverage on Iran.'
She noted that the war in Ukraine has drained its resources and its failure to halt Assad's fall shows that Moscow's influence in the region is fading.
'To be successful as mediators, you would need to make Iranians compromise,' she said.
Whether Russia can now increase its sway in the Middle East remains uncertain.
The war in Ukraine has left Moscow overstretched, said Mansour, the Chatham House research fellow.
After Assad's ouster following years of Russian military support, the Kremlin already is making overtures to the new government in Syria, as well as an effort to approach other states in the region and beyond with transactional deals that serve both sides.
'You can lose battles, you can lose allies, but I am sure that Russia will maintain influence in the Middle East, including in Syria, where it's already negotiating with the new government,' Mansour said.
Russia's actions in the Iran-Israel war could have other unforeseen long-term consequences.
'Even if the Islamic Republic survives the war, Russia's inability or unwillingness to assist its closest Middle Eastern ally will inevitably raise doubts about Moscow's reliability,' Mahmoudian said.
'Other regional players — such as Egypt and Turkey — have lately sought closer ties with Russia, yet watching Moscow fail to defend or meaningfully support Tehran may prompt them to reconsider how dependable a partner Russia can be,' he said.