![MARKET PULSE PM JULY 2, 2025 [WATCH]](/_next/image?url=https%3A%2F%2Fassets.nst.com.my%2Fimages%2Farticles%2FHQ190324AZ006.jpg_1751454019.jpg&w=3840&q=100)
MARKET PULSE PM JULY 2, 2025 [WATCH]
Bursa Malaysia ended the day in positive territory, supported by firmer investor sentiment and consistent foreign inflows.
Although momentum softened after the lunch break, the FBM KLCI staged a sharp rebound in the final hour of trading to close higher, reflecting resilient underlying demand.
The ringgit, meanwhile, weakened against the US dollar, closing at 4.2230.
In the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin rose to RM455,263.
Ethereum followed suit at RM10,365, while Solana stood at RM632.
That wraps up today's Market Pulse.
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New Straits Times
16 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Will there be stability in 2H?
AS we draw the curtain on the first half of 2025 (H1 2025), one thing is clear: the road has been anything but smooth. Markets have been tossed by crosscurrents of global conflict, policy shocks, and investor anxiety. And yet, through all the noise, Malaysia has held its ground. The FBM KLCI, though not immune to volatility, demonstrated tenacity, underpinned by resilient fundamentals and steady macro stewardship. In an environment where the unexpected became the norm, Malaysia remained a beacon of relative calm in a turbulent world. Flashpoints and Fallout: How Global Conflict Reshaped Market Behaviour Few forces rattle markets more swiftly than war and H1 2025 offered no shortage of flashpoints. The Middle East conflict escalated dramatically with Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, drawing U.S. military support and spurring global fears of a wider confrontation. For Malaysian markets, this sparked a sharp risk-off pivot. Oil prices surged, lifting our Energy Index, but equity sentiment broadly softened as capital moved to safe havens. Meanwhile, the protracted Russia-Ukraine war continued to strain global commodity supply chains. Elevated palm oil prices offered some tailwind to local plantation counters, but the ripple effects, particularly in feedstock costs were a reminder of our embeddedness in a fragile global supply web. Tariffs, Tensions and the Trade Trap: Navigating a Fragmented Global Economy The Trump administration's sweeping tariffs, peaking at 145 per cent on Chinese imports sent shockwaves through global supply chains. Malaysia, deeply integrated into regional manufacturing, absorbed the aftershocks. Our exporters, especially in semiconductors and renewables, were caught in the crossfire. The FBM KLCI fell over five per cent on April 2 following intensified tariff rhetoric, with risk assets broadly repriced. Adding to the strain, Malaysia was slapped with a 34.4 per cent import duty on solar panels, an outsized blow to our green energy sector. Global investors fled to safety; gold prices soared past US$3,400/oz. Yet amid this, the ringgit showed quiet strength, rising 0.8 per cent in Q1, a nod to investor faith in Malaysia's fiscal prudence. Relief came in May, when the US and China moved to de-escalate. Tariff rates were rolled back US duties cut to 30 per cent, China's to 10 per cent and a 90-day pause was announced. The KLCI rallied 2.33 per cent, buoyed by returning risk appetite and hopes of normalised trade flows. Still, unpredictability looms large, and any re-escalation will test Malaysia's resilience again. Rates, Risk, and Resilience: How Policy Signals Shaped Investor Positioning The global interest rate landscape was the third pillar shaping investor behaviour in H1. The US Fed held rates at 4.25-4.50 per cent, cautioning against premature easing due to tariff-induced inflation risks. This 'higher-for-longer' narrative kept a lid on valuations for rate-sensitive sectors like property and tech. However, a cooling inflation trend and softening growth expectations rekindled hopes for Q4 rate cuts. The ringgit appreciated about five pe rcent against the US dollar in H1, making it one of the strongest Asian currencies this year. It was further supported by RM13.4 billion in net foreign bond inflows, a testament to Malaysia's safe haven appeal in the region. Bank Negara Malaysia, staying its course with an OPR at 3.00 per cent, has successfully struck a delicate balance between supporting growth and anchoring inflation. Outlook for H2 2025: From Turbulence to Tactical Positioning As we pivot into the second half of 2025, investors must brace for persistent global volatility but also recognise the windows of opportunity it presents. The geopolitical landscape remains fluid. Any breakthrough in the Middle East or progress in the Ukraine conflict could unlock relief rallies, while renewed hostilities may keep risk appetite in check. Malaysia's equity markets are particularly sensitive to oil price volatility, where sharp spikes could strain inflation and subsidies, but also boost energy-linked counters. On the trade front, August's US-China tariff truce deadline looms large. If it leads to a lasting deal, Malaysia's export engine could rev up again, rewarding tech, logistics, and manufacturing sectors. If talks break down, investors should expect a return to defensive positioning. Staying nimble and sector-focused will be critical. Monetary policy remains the market's compass. With the Fed signalling possible Q4 rate cuts, global liquidity may begin to normalise. A weaker US dollar could strengthen the ringgit further and revive foreign flows. Bond yields may stabilise, benefitting capital-intensive and domestic consumption-driven sectors. Bank Negara Malaysia may join the easing cycle but is likely to remain data-dependent. Investors should track inflation trends and fiscal reform progress, especially the targeted subsidy rollout. Tactically, there is scope for selective sector rotation. Technology and construction may outperform if growth tailwinds return, while banks stand to benefit from loan growth recovery. Commodities and plantations remain tied to global cycles, but with El Niño risks and robust palm oil demand, upside remains plausible. Bottom line: H2 2025 is not without risk, but it offers a chance for calculated gains. Patience, diversification, and readiness to reposition swiftly will be key. Malaysia, underpinned by sound governance and regional relevance, remains a compelling story for long-term investors looking to turn uncertainty into strategic opportunity. The turbulence of early 2025 may well give way to calmer - or at least more predictable - seas, in which the Malaysian economy and the FBM KLCI can find firmer footing. Conclusion: Staying Strategic in a Shifting Landscape In light of continued volatility, Malaysian investors may consider the following actions: 1. Diversify across resilient sectors. Exposure to infrastructure, domestic services, and financials may help buffer external shocks. 2. Reassess export-heavy positions. Monitor global demand and currency strength, especially for manufacturing and E&E sectors. 3. Stay defensive where needed. Utilities and consumer staples offer stability when uncertainty prevails. 4. Use safe-haven assets selectively. Gold's sustained strength reinforces its role in hedging macro risk. 5. Monitor macro and policy shifts closely. Policy changes at home and abroad will shape sector leadership and capital flows. Ultimately, investing in uncertainty is not about avoiding risk, but managing it. In a world shaped by rapid change, staying informed, agile and disciplined will be the hallmark of successful strategies. Malaysia remains well-positioned, with strong governance, regional relevance, and compelling valuations to weather short-term turbulence and unlock long-term growth. *The writer is the head of dealing at Moomoo Malaysia.
New Straits Times
16 hours ago
- New Straits Times
Stocks climb, but market activity continues to thin
KUALA LUMPUR: Bursa Malaysia's stock market has been on a gradual recovery in recent months, but trading activity suggests investor caution remains, according to the exchange's latest statistics. The benchmark FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI (FBM KLCI) has posted gains for four consecutive months, rising from 1,513.65 in March to 1,548.99 as of July 3. Over the same period, total market capitalisation increased by more than RM60 billion, from RM1.87 trillion to RM1.93 trillion. However, this rebound in valuations has not been matched by liquidity. In June, the total value of shares traded on Bursa Malaysia dropped to RM43.1 billion, the lowest monthly figure in over a year. That marks a decline of more than 60 per cent from RM109.3 billion recorded during the peak in July 2024. Market volume has also fallen, from 109 billion units to 59 billion. There was a pickup in early July, with RM5.2 billion in turnover on July 3, one of the highest daily totals so far this year. However, with only a few trading days into the month, it remains too early to tell whether this signals a sustained shift in sentiment or a temporary uptick. While the rise in capitalisation may point to renewed institutional interest or selective accumulation of blue-chip stocks, the declining participation rate suggests that many investors, particularly retail players, remain cautious. This comes against a backdrop of subdued global risk sentiment, persistent inflationary pressures and continued capital outflows from emerging markets.
The Star
a day ago
- The Star
FBM KLCI closes slightly higher ahead of Trump's trade decision
KUALA LUMPUR: The FBM KLCI ended slightly higher on Friday, as investors remained cautious ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump's July 9 tariff deadline. Trump said his administration would begin sending letters to trading partners on Friday, outlining unilateral tariff rates that will take effect on Aug 1. The FBM KLCI closed 1.2 points higher, or 0.08%, at 1,550.19, after reaching an intraday high of 1,551.78. For the week, the benchmark index advanced about 1.4%. Winners and losers were closely balanced, with 489 gainers and 466 losers, while 509 counters were unchanged. A total of about 3.4 billion shares worth RM2.5bil changed hands. Genting Plantations was the top gainer, rising 22 sen to RM5.23, followed by NationGate, which climbed 11 sen to RM1.78, Heineken, which gained 10 sen to RM25.44, and Hong Leong Industries, which added 10 sen to RM13.52. Conversely, Nestle tumbled RM2.48 to RM77.52, Dutch Lady slipped 54 sen to RM29.14, PETRONAS Dagangan eased 40 sen to RM21.56, and Westports fell 22 sen to RM5.58. Meanwhile, the ringgit slipped 0.04% to 4.2242 against the US dollar but edged up 0.05% to 3.3154 against the Singapore dollar. Regional markets ended broadly lower, with losses in South Korea, Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Singapore outweighing modest gains in Japan and China. Among the key markets: Japan's Nikkei 225 gained 0.06% to 39,810.88; South Korea's Kospi lost 1.99% to 3,054.28; Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 0.65% to 23,916.06; China's CSI 300 Index added 0.36% to 3,982.20; Taiwan's Taiex closed down 0.73% at 22,547.50 and; Singapore's Straits Times Index fell 0.18% to 4,012.21 points.
