Israel's Big Gamble to Knock Out Iran
The Middle East is on the cusp of what may turn out to be one of its most consequential moments in decades.
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Yahoo
41 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Israel's security elite want end of Gaza war in two-three weeks, sources tell 'Post'
While Israel may also get some improved terms in negotiations with Hamas, the most important elements here are: IDF Chief Eyal Zamir, Trump, and the 12-day Iran war. With senior sources telling The Jerusalem Post the defense establishment wants the war to end within two to three weeks, and US President Donald Trump pushing for a potential end even sooner, might the current dizzying Middle East conflict of 20 months finally come to an end? Or will continued opposition from Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich and National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir once again extend the war? Alternatively, might Israel and Hamas reach a third temporary ceasefire, which only freezes hostilities for two months or longer, but with the sides eventually resuming the conflict later in 2025 or early 2026? In addressing the issue, the first question is: Why might the war finally end this time, when earlier negotiations – November 2023 (first ceasefire), May 2024 (close to a deal), August 2024 (close to a deal), and this March (second ceasefire) – did not end it? While Israel may also get some improved terms in negotiations with Hamas, the most important elements here are: IDF Chief of Staff Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir, Trump, and the 12-day Iran war. Zamir is in a completely different position than his predecessor, Herzi Halevi, who had major achievements during the war, but also had the albatross of the October 7 massacre permanently stained on his name. He was never trusted by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, because he was appointed while Netanyahu was out of office. Halevi wanted to end the war in late 2024 and in early 2025 as part of a grand deal to get back all of the hostages, and he butted heads privately and publicly with the prime minister over it. Ultimately, Netanyahu believed he could ignore Halevi as well as former Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) director Ronen Bar – not only on ideological grounds of different visions of Gaza postwar, but also because he could use the October 7 massacre to frame Halevi as being weak. In contrast, Zamir has conquered 75% of the Gaza Strip in a matter of months, as he said he would do, and he just took a sledgehammer to Iran's nuclear program, ballistic-missile program, and military high command. If Netanyahu could frame Halevi's push to end the war as premature, and if he also felt like his image as 'Mr. Security' was still too shaky to fight off opposition by Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, the context is very different now. Zamir can say that he pulled out all of the stops that Halevi would not, and that the Biden administration would likely have blocked: taking over 75% of Gaza, as opposed to penetrating temporarily into Gaza and then withdrawing; cutting off new humanitarian aid to Gaza for about two months; and cutting off Hamas's control of food aid in central and southern Gaza by using the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation to distribute it. And he was willing to do all of this despite concerns by some that these moves would endanger the remaining living 20 Israeli hostages. THIS MEANS that Zamir can uniquely argue to Netanyahu that any further taking over of the remaining 25% of Gaza areas would inherently endanger the hostages, since these are the areas where they would be being held. It would be hard to ignore him. Moreover, Zamir just took down Israel's toughest foe in the Middle East, so any attempts to attack him as weak or afraid of going far enough would likely be quickly dismissed by the public. Therefore, Zamir can press to receive back the remaining hostages even at the cost of ending the war – which media leaks have attributed to him, and the Post can independently confirm his position – without suffering the same character assassination that greeted Halevi. The Gaza takeovers and the Iran victories are also a big deal for Netanyahu's image. He and his lieutenants have been messaging that by defeating Iran's nuclear program and harming its ballistic-missile program and leadership – the 'head of the snake' – he has been fully redeemed from his role as prime minister during the October 7 massacre. And then there is Trump. He green-lighted Israel's attack against Iran and then went a major step beyond, dropping several mega-bunker-buster bombs on the Fordow nuclear facility and other bombs on two other nuclear facilities. Trump also allowed Israel, Netanyahu, and Zamir to carry out its most aggressive moves against Hamas over the past few months, which former US president Joe Biden would never have allowed. So, when he turns around to Netanyahu and says, 'Time is up,' it will be much harder to say no. This is without even mentioning that the world knows how quickly Trump can turn on a former ally who disappoints him. In the face of these new circumstances, Smotrich and Ben-Gvir's opposition to ending the war is unchanged. Nevertheless, Netanyahu's readiness to confront them – possibly even cutting a deal with the opposition to gain outside support in exchange for setting early elections in 2026 (the latest elections can go is October 2026) – may have changed radically. There might even be scenarios in which National Unity chairman Benny Gantz, who is now in the opposition, could rejoin Netanyahu given his political problems, especially if it was part of taking credit for new Sunni normalization deals and a freeze to the judicial overhaul push. Then again, if Netanyahu's sole priority is trying to ride out his term to the end, he may still order Zamir to take over the rest of Gaza and continue the war – either with no stopping point, or after a multi-month ceasefire like the one at the start of this year. If he does that, and hostages die, he would likely find pressure from Zamir on the issue much more politically challenging or damaging than his public confrontations with Halevi.
Yahoo
41 minutes ago
- Yahoo
'There will be no Hamastan,' Netanyahu declares as terror group reviews US ceasefire proposal
"There will not be a Hamas. There will not be a Hamastan. We're not going back to that. It's over," he said. Hamas is reviewing new ceasefire proposals from mediators, aiming for an agreement that would end the Gaza conflict and ensure the withdrawal of Israeli forces from the enclave, according to a statement released on Wednesday. On the same day, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the elimination of the terrorist organization in his first public remarks since US President Donald Trump announced what he called a "final proposal" for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza. "There will not be a Hamas. There will not be a Hamastan. We're not going back to that. It's over. We will free all our hostages," Netanyahu told a meeting hosted by the Trans-Israel pipeline. The audience applauded the statement. "'Well, really, how can you say that? These are two opposing goals!' – What nonsense. It works together. We will complete it together, contrary to what others say. We will eliminate them down to the ground," he continued in an impassioned speech. "Our opportunities are huge. We are not going to miss them. We won't fail them, we won't lose them, we won't miss this opportunity," he stressed, adding that opportunities include defeating "our enemies and [securing] our future – economically, nationally, internationally, and energetically." In the same statement, Netanyahu announced that Israel is going to increase and enhance its energy capacity. "The forecast for gas revenues alone in the coming decade is almost 300 billion shekels. You remember there were debates about this: 'This will destroy the Israeli economy.' It didn't destroy the Israeli economy – it's building the Israeli economy," he said. He concluded with a promise to connect the energy sources of Asia, the Middle East, and the Arabian Peninsula with the West. Trump said on Tuesday that Israel had agreed to the US-proposed ceasefire conditions. "Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War," he wrote in a post on Truth Social on Tuesday night. "I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE." Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer informed US envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff that Israel has accepted the proposal for a ceasefire and hostage deal and is ready to begin close talks with Hamas to finalize the agreement, a senior Israeli official said on Wednesday.
Yahoo
41 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Hamas likely to respond positively to ceasefire proposal later on Friday, source tells 'Post'
The source estimates the response will be positive, with some points rewritten. These revisions are not expected to be deal-breakers. Hamas's response to the proposed ceasefire and hostage deal will be delivered later on Friday to Israel, Egypt, and the United States via Qatar, a source familiar with the details told The Jerusalem Post. The source estimates the response will be positive, with some points rewritten. These revisions are not expected to be deal-breakers. Steve Witkoff representative Bishara Bahbah confirmed that Hamas will provide its response on Friday evening in a post to Facebook. "Hamas will respond this evening to the Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal, which Israel has accepted. I hope to hear good news this evening," Bahbah wrote. This comes after Hamas confirmed early on Friday morning that it was discussing the US-Qatar ceasefire proposal with other Palestinian factions. The terror group promised to announce the final decision after the meetings. US President Donald Trump said on Thursday that he is expecting to know whether Hamas agreed to a ceasefire deal over the next 24 hours, Reuters reported. The proposal, presented by Qatar and based on the Witkoff framework, calls for the release of 10 living hostages and 18 bodies during a 60-day ceasefire. During that period, the sides are expected to hold talks aimed at ending the war. On Thursday, senior Hamas officials met in Turkey to discuss the proposed framework. In exchange for the hostages, Israel would release 125 Palestinian prisoners in addition to 1,111 Gazans that Israel had arrested after October 7. This is a developing story.
