Trump may yet smash apart the axis of evil

Telegraph

17-07-2025

US President Donald Trump's very public volte face in his attitude towards Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin is aimed at forcing the Kremlin to end the war in Ukraine. Another consequence, though, of the package of measures Trump announced this week is that it could end the toxic alliance of despotic regimes that has formed with the specific goal of targeting the West.
The support Russia has received from China, Iran and North Korea since Putin launched his 'special military operation' in Ukraine in February 2022 has brought into sharp focus the deepening cooperation between autocratic states whose primary goal is challenging the West's primacy.
China's heavy reliance on Russia for its oil supplies – at a significant discount to the global market rate – makes a significant contribution to funding Putin's war effort. Beijing has provided technical support for Russia's war effort, supplying much-needed drones and vital semi-conductors for military equipment.
Iran, too, has provided drones and missiles to support the Kremlin's offensive in Ukraine, while the 'comprehensive strategic partnership' Putin agreed with Pyongyang last year has resulted in the deployment of North Korean troops to Ukraine in support of Russia's war.
Trump's announcement this week of a sweeping package of sanctions that will target countries that continue to trade with Moscow will have a profound impact on the unholy 'coalition of autocracies' seeking to undermine the West.
Trump's mounting frustration with Putin's refusal to take Washington's ceasefire plan seriously has led the American leader to authorise a new arms package for Ukraine – including Patriot air defence systems. He is also threatening to impose punitive tariffs on any country that continues to do business with Putin's repressive regime if no agreement to end the war is reached within 50 days.
And it is the latter measure, with talk in Washington of tariffs ranging from 100-500 per cent, that will send alarm bells ringing in Beijing, Pyongyang and Tehran about the wisdom of maintaining ties with Putin.
It is a threat that has the potential to inflict great damage on the Russian economy, severely limiting Putin's ability to continue prosecuting the war in Ukraine. Even more significantly, it could bring to an end the shaky coalition between some of the world's most despotic regimes that was forged more through necessity than any genuine interest in pursuing common goals.
Putin's belief that the Russian economy is strong enough to withstand any further punitive measures that are imposed by the US and its allies is based on the failure of sanctions originally imposed against Moscow after the invasion of Ukraine to have the desired effect.
While the Russian economy has been badly hit by the measures, with interest rates and inflation well into double figures, it has still managed to summon the resources to fund Putin's war effort. This is primarily due to the steady income stream it receives from countries like China that are willing to buy Russian oil and gas despite the sanctions.
Secondary sanctions that target states still trading with Russia, as opposed to measures imposed directly against Moscow, would seriously disrupt this arrangement, not least because it is highly unlikely that any of Moscow's so-called allies would be prepared to tolerate economic hardship of their own simply to protect their relationship with the Kremlin.
Chinese President Xi Jinping's response to Trump's latest tariff threat was to insist that Moscow and Beijing would strengthen their 'mutual support on multilateral platforms ' because the two states were 'setting a model for a new type of international relations'. Yet, with China struggling to cope with the end of its economic miracle, it is questionable whether Xi really wants to see his country endure further economic pressure.
Beijing's relationship with Moscow has always been one-sided, with China exploiting Russia's economic woes to its own advantage. Many of those around Xi view Russia as being little more than a convenient gas station.
Iran, too, will have qualms about standing by Russia's side. Putin, despite the defence pact he recently signed with Tehran, did nothing to protect the Iranian regime when it came under attack from Israel and the US.
The ayatollahs currently have enough problems of their own without compounding them by attracting further US sanctions. Even the North Koreans, whose forces have suffered heavy losses fighting on Russia's behalf, must be wondering about the wisdom of persisting with an alliance that causes them so much pain and so little gain.
Trump's threat of new sanctions might be aimed at forcing Putin to the negotiating table. But they could also result in the breakup of an autocratic alliance which never had any common purpose in the first place – save for making life difficult for the West.