
China's stability provides clear, predictable environment for investors
The 'two sessions' are not only a major political event in China but also a key window for the world to observe the country's democratic politics and development trajectory. This year, as in years past, the event has captured considerable global attention, highlighting China's ongoing development and its implications for the world stage. In the 'Unraveling the allure of China' series, the Global Times (GT) invites experts and scholars from around the world to delve into the multifaceted allure of China and explore how the lessons drawn from its unique experiences can provide valuable insights for other nations.
In the third piece of the series, Michele Geraci (Geraci), former undersecretary of state at the Italian Ministry of Economic Development, shared his viewpoints with GT reporter Qian Jiayin on China's economic outlook and how China's steady economic progress can contribute to the world economy.
GT: China targets economic growth of around 5 percent in 2025, according to a government work report submitted Wednesday to the national legislature for deliberation during the ongoing two sessions. What is your prediction for China's economic growth in 2025?
Geraci: It is important to note that predicting GDP based on just one year's worth of data is very difficult. This is where some analysts often go wrong, because China plans with a long-term vision - even with five-year plans.
What really matters is the trajectory over the medium term, not the fluctuations from year to year. There will be years when GDP exceeds expectations, and others when it falls short. Western analysts, in particular, often get overly excited or disappointed by these yearly changes.
In my view, the specific number in any given year doesn't matter that much. What truly matters is the medium-term outlook. For this reason, I typically focus on the five-year forecast, which I see as a much more reliable benchmark.
GT: Recently, many global financial institutions indicated in their 2025 economic outlooks that China's high-quality development is gradually yielding fruits, and they expect higher proportions for consumption and the service sector. In a period of global economic turbulence, how do you think China's high-quality development can contribute to global economic stability?
Geraci: China contributes to global stability not by increasing its dependence on the external economy, but by focusing on growing its domestic economy and boosting domestic demand. By doing so, it becomes less vulnerable to external shocks. As a result, China's economic forecast is one of the most solid and reliable components of global projections.
In contrast, regions like Europe, the US and others often experience greater volatility and variation in their economic forecasts.
GT: Recently, a symposium on private enterprises held in Beijing has attracted considerable attention. What message do you think this symposium conveys? What does the attention it has garnered reflect about the international community's expectations for China's economy?
Geraci: China no longer relies heavily on Western innovation or technology, at least not to the extent it once did. While cooperation with the West is still welcomed, China now has the capacity to develop its own technologies.
DeepSeek, for example, and even innovations from Alibaba, as well as China's progress in semiconductors with companies like SMIC and Huawei, show the world that China is now striving for self-reliance in technology development. The message here is that even if tariffs are imposed on China's exports, China won't be as affected as before, because it is increasingly capable of driving innovation on its own.
The attention garnered from this symposium reflects the international community's keen interest in China's economic development for several reasons.
Western analysts and economists closely monitor China's progress to gauge the level of competition China can bring to the table. The positive side is that Western analysts also see China's technological advancements as a potential opportunity. For example, if DeepSeek's technology can prove to be more efficient than ChatGPT, this would make Western companies interested in developing applications on top of DeepSeek's technology.
So, it's not just about viewing China's technological progress as a competition but also as a valuable opportunity for growth and innovation on a global scale.
GT: Since the new US administration took office, it has continued to wield tariffs as a tool. Some analysts believe that the US' tariff policies will directly affect global trade flows and volumes. How do you think US tariff policies will impact the global economy? What kind of risk-hedging solutions would you suggest for China to adopt?
Geraci: I do believe tariffs will have a painful impact, not only on the global economy but also on the US economy. However, in practice, the impact may be more moderate. In the end, trade will likely continue, albeit with some disruptions here and there.
As for how China can respond, it has already been offering solutions. For example, China has implemented zero tariffs for low-income countries, such as those in Africa, allowing them to export to China without tariff barriers. China is also strengthening its trade relationships within frameworks like the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement, and it has the potential to deepen these partnerships, even extending them to countries like Australia, New Zealand, Japan and South Korea through the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership).
GT: Despite the challenges in China-Europe relations, the annual trade between China and the EU still amounts to nearly $800 billion. At the same time, both China and the EU support a multilateral trade system centered on the World Trade Organization. In light of the rising tide of unilateralism and protectionism, what significance do you see in deepening China-EU cooperation?
Geraci: The China-EU relationship is very complex. On one hand, the EU officially views China as a systemic rival. On the other hand, European companies are eager to do business with China. The opportunity for deeper China-EU cooperation lies in the ability of Chinese companies to engage more directly with individual European companies and countries.
My advice to Chinese companies that want to do business with European firms, especially in terms of imports and exports, would be to focus less on the political actions of the EU government and instead engage directly with European companies. This approach allows for more effective and practical cooperation, bypassing some of the challenges posed by governmental policies.
GT: By the end of 2024, nearly 1.24 million foreign-invested enterprises had been established in China. When delivering the government work report on Wednesday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang noted that major priorities the country should focus on include expanding high-standard opening up and stabilizing foreign trade and investment. In your opinion, what are the main attractions of the Chinese market for foreign companies?
Geraci: The key attraction of the Chinese market for foreign companies lies in its higher growth rate compared to many Western countries. Even if China's growth rate is 5 percent, which may seem lower than in previous years, it is still significantly higher than the growth rates of the European Union, which are around 0.7 percent to 0.6 percent. This gap is substantial and represents a major opportunity for foreign companies seeking to expand.
Another important factor is China's political stability, which offers foreign investors a clear and predictable environment. Investors value certainty, and China's regulatory framework provides that.
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Hamilton Spectator
44 minutes ago
- Hamilton Spectator
The Latest: US cuts short Gaza ceasefire talks, blaming Hamas
President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said Thursday the U.S. is cutting short Gaza ceasefire talks and bringing home its negotiating team from Qatar for consultations, after the latest response from Hamas 'shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.' The talks have been bogged down over competing demands for ending the war. Hamas says it will only release all hostages in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal and end to the war. Israel says it will not agree to end the war until Hamas gives up power and disarms — a condition the militant group rejects. As Israel's blockade and military offensive in Gaza grinds on, four leading news organizations said Thursday that their journalists there are facing the threat of starvation. The joint statement by The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, Reuters and the BBC called on Israel to allow journalists in and out of Gaza and allow adequate food supplies into the territory. Israel's war in Gaza , launched in response to Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack, has killed more than 59,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza's Health Ministry. Its count doesn't distinguish between militants and civilians, but the ministry says that more than half of the dead are women and children. Here's the latest: Ceasefire talks break down as Israel drives Gaza to the brink of famine, aid groups say Amid Israel's blockade and ongoing military offensive, the United Nations food agency says nearly 100,000 women and children are suffering from severe, acute malnutrition. The Gaza Health Ministry has reported a rise in hunger-related deaths. Israel says it is allowing in enough aid and blames U.N. agencies for not distributing it. But those agencies say it is nearly impossible to safely deliver it because of Israeli restrictions and a breakdown of law and order, with crowds of thousands unloading food trucks as soon as they move into Gaza. A separate Israeli-backed system run by an American contractor has also been marred by chaos. Witnesses, health officials and the U.N. human rights office say Israeli forces have repeatedly fired on crowds seeking aid, killing more than 1,000 people. Israel says its forces have only fired warning shots and that the death toll is exaggerated. Israel faces mounting pressure to end Gaza's humanitarian crisis Twenty-eight Western-aligned countries recently called for an end to the war in Gaza and harshly criticizing Israel's blockade and a new aid delivery model it has rolled out. More than 100 charity and human rights groups released a similar letter, saying that even their own staff are struggling to get enough food. The U.S. and Israel rejected the allegations and blamed Hamas for prolonging the war by not accepting their terms for a ceasefire. Israel-Hamas truce has eluded Trump administration for months The sides have held weeks of talks in Qatar, reporting small signs of progress but no major breakthroughs. 'While the mediators have made a great effort, Hamas does not appear to be coordinated or acting in good faith,' Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff said in a statement. 'We will now consider alternative options to bring the hostages home and try to create a more stable environment for the people of Gaza.' It was unclear what 'alternative options' the U.S. was considering. The White House had no immediate comment, and the State Department did not immediately respond to messages. Where do gaps remain in Gaza ceasefire talks? Negotiations have been bogged down over competing demands for ending the war. Hamas says it will only release all hostages in exchange for a full Israeli withdrawal and end to the war. Israel says it will not agree to end the war until Hamas gives up power and disarms — a condition the militant group rejects. The U.S. plan called for an initial 60-day ceasefire and a partial, phased hostage release. The two sides were to launch further negotiations on a lasting ceasefire. Hamas is believed to be holding the hostages in different locations, including tunnels, and says it has ordered its guards to kill them if Israeli forces approach. Trump's envoy says ceasefire talks are getting cut short President Donald Trump's special envoy Steve Witkoff said Thursday the U.S. is cutting short Gaza ceasefire talks and bringing home its negotiating team from Qatar for consultations, after the latest response from Hamas 'shows a lack of desire to reach a ceasefire in Gaza.' The breakdown comes just hours after an Israeli official called the latest Hamas proposal 'workable,' although no details were provided. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on the record. Netanyahu warns Hamas against mistaking ceasefire talks for weakness Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Thursday that his government is working toward a new agreement to free hostages held in Gaza. 'But if Hamas perceives our willingness to reach a deal as a weakness, as an opportunity to dictate lines of defeat that will endanger Israel, it is greatly mistaken,' Netanyahu said. He spoke at a ceremony commemorating the death anniversary of Zeev Jabotinsky. Considered the spiritual father of the Israeli right, Jabotinsky worked closely with Netanyahu's father on promoting Zionism in the U.S. Gaza women describe humiliating and fruitless attempt to get aid at US-run hub The 10 women told The Associated Press that they waited for hours at the U.S.-run aid site as American contractors told them to move from place to place. The women said contractors fired pepper spray at the crowds and that in the end they didn't receive any aid. 'They terrified us in ways unimaginable,' said Azza Abu Taha, a mother looking after six family members. 'I just want a bag of flour for me and my children.' Umm Ibrahim Anshasi said she arrived at 9 a.m. as instructed. 'They tell you to wait, then they tell you go out,' she said. 'We came just to be insulted.' The Gaza Humanitarian Foundation acknowledged that a 'limited amount of aid' was distributed at the site where the pepper spray was used. It said that 'overall, the effort was a major success.' Palestinian killed near Gaza aid site on women-only day, health officials say Ten women who were at the site run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation , an Israeli-backed American contractor, described a chaotic scene on Thursday and said they eventually left without any aid. The foundation said its contractors used a 'limited amount of pepper spray' to control crowds and prevent injuries, and did not fire any shots. Some of the women said sound grenades were fired and others heard gunshots. They said Israeli forces were operating nearby. There was no immediate comment from the military. Khadija al-Qahouji, 37, was shot in the head near the aid site and died, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the body. It did not have further details. More than 1,000 people have been killed by Israeli forces while approaching the GHF sites since they opened in May, according to witnesses, local health officials and the United Nations human rights office. The Israeli military says it has only fired warning shots, and GHF says its contractors have only occasionally used pepper spray or fired into the air to prevent stampedes. Celebrity chef from Israel condemns 'famine' in Gaza The level of hunger in Gaza is 'shocking beyond belief,' said Yotam Ottolenghi, a Jerusalem-born British chef and bestselling author. In a post on social media, Ottolenghi said he's adding his voice to global calls for Israel to halt its attacks on Gaza and let aid enter without restriction. 'The sequence of events leading to this moment – with victims on both sides – cannot justify withholding food from a whole population,' he said. 'This goes against any value I was raised on.' Ottolenghi wrote a book with Palestinian Sami Tamimi called 'Jerusalem,' covering Arab and Jewish cooking in the holy city. Netanyahu recalls ceasefire negotiators back to Israel Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu's office recalled the negotiating team back to Israel in light of Hamas' response Thursday morning. In a brief statement, the prime minister's office expressed its appreciation for the efforts of U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and mediators Qatar and Egypt, but gave no further details. Earlier Thursday, Israel said Hamas' latest response was 'workable.' 'Growing optimism' that Israel and Hamas are closing in on a deal, official says An official with knowledge of the Gaza ceasefire talks said Hamas had submitted a 'positive response' through Qatari mediators. 'The Hamas response has now been passed to the Israeli side, and there is growing optimism that the gaps are narrowing and a deal can be reached,' the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss the behind-the-scenes talks. The official said senior officials from the U.S. and Qatar were set to meet in Italy later Thursday to discuss the progress. There were no further details. — By Josef Federman in Jerusalem More than 40 Palestinians died from malnutrition in July, Gaza's Health Ministry says Gaza's Health Ministry said 48 Palestinians have died of malnutrition this past month, adding that 59 Palestinians died of malnutrition so far in 2025, up from 50 in 2024, and four in 2023 when Israel started its war against the Hamas militant group in Gaza after its rampage in southern Israel on Oct. 7. In the most recent cases, a man and a woman died of malnutrition Wednesday, the Shifa Hospital told The Associated Press. Of the 113 that died of malnutrition in Gaza since 2023, 81 were children, Gaza's Health Ministry said. Since Israel's aid blockade in March, Gaza's humanitarian situation has become dire, alarming international organizations. The United Nations World Food Program has said 100,000 women and children are facing famine levels of starvation. The International Rescue Community said their teams in Gaza have reported a surge in cases of children being rushed to the hospital due to malnutrition. 'Their small bodies are shutting down — they can't breathe, their immune systems are collapsing, and they are highly vulnerable to infection,' IRC's acting director in the occupied Palestinian Territories, Scott Lea, said in a statement Wednesday. 'Their lives are hanging by a thread.' Rocket landed near Gaza aid site, Israel says Israel's military said militants had fired a rocket that landed close to an aid distribution site in southern Gaza. In a statement Thursday, the military said militants in the city of Khan Younis had fired a rocket that landed 250 meters (820 feet) from an aid site in Rafah. The military did not say if the rocket strike injured anyone. The aid site is run by the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation, an Israeli-backed American organization distributing aid in Gaza which launched operations in May. The U.S. and Israel seek to replace the traditional U.N.-led aid distribution system in Gaza, asserting that Hamas militants siphon off supplies. The U.N. denies the allegation. Indonesia condemns Israeli motion to annex the occupied West Bank Indonesia has strongly condemned the Israeli Parliament's symbolic motion to annex the occupied West Bank. In a statement Thursday by Indonesia's Foreign Affairs Ministry, the world's most populous Muslim-majority country reiterated that Israel has no legitimate sovereignty over occupied Palestinian territory and that such actions do not alter the legal status of the territory. 'This move constitutes an act of annexation, violating the fundamental principle of non-acquisition of territory by force,' the statement said. 'We reaffirm our support for the establishment and sovereign State of Palestine within the pre-1967 borders, with East Jerusalem as its capital, in accordance with the Two-State Solution.' The declarative motion, passed Wednesday by the Israeli Parliament, or Knesset, has no direct legal implications, although it could place the issue of annexation on the agenda of future debates. The Southeast Asian nation urged the United Nations Security Council and the international community to take concrete measures to halt what it termed Israel's illegal actions, saying it aims to make its illegal occupation of Palestinian territory permanent. Israeli military says 8 soldiers wounded in ramming attack Eight Israeli soldiers were wounded Thursday when a car rammed into a bus stop near the central coastal city of Netanya, the military said. The driver fled the scene, prompting a police manhunt. Two soldiers were moderately wounded and another six were lightly wounded in the attack. The military did not identify the attacker or provide further details. Palestinian militants have carried out scores of shooting, stabbing and car-ramming attacks since the outbreak of the war in the Gaza Strip. Israel has launched major military operations in the occupied West Bank, and there has been a spike in settler violence against Palestinians there. 5 Palestinians killed in central Gaza At least five Palestinians were killed in central Gaza late Wednesday, according to the Aqsa Hospital morgue that received the bodies Thursday in the city of Deir al-Balah. Two people, a man and a woman, were killed east of the city in Israeli tank shelling. Another person was killed by Israeli troops in a shooting in the Bureij refugee camp, and two others were among a group of people hit by an Israeli strike in Zawaida. The Israeli military, which has expanded operations in the area in the last few days, did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Major media say their journalists in Gaza are 'increasingly unable to feed themselves' Four leading news organizations said Thursday their journalists in Gaza are facing the threat of starvation as the Israel-Hamas war grinds on. 'We are desperately concerned for our journalists in Gaza, who are increasingly unable to feed themselves and their families,' said a joint statement by The Associated Press, Agence France-Presse, Reuters and the BBC. 'For many months, these independent journalists have been the world's eyes and ears on the ground in Gaza. They are now facing the same dire circumstances as those they are covering.' The statement called on Israel to allow journalists in and out of Gaza and allow adequate food supplies into the territory. Israel has barred international media from entering Gaza independently throughout the 21-month war. The deal on the table Top U.S. Envoy Steve Witkoff is expected to head to Italy on Thursday to meet top Israeli negotiator Ron Dermer and discuss the ceasefire deal on the table, according to Israeli and U.S. officials. For Israel, sending Dermer — a close Netanyahu confidant — to the meeting marks a show of seriousness in reaching a deal. The deal under discussion is expected to include a 60-day ceasefire in which Hamas would release 10 living hostages and the remains of 18 others in phases in exchange for Palestinians imprisoned by Israel. Aid supplies would be ramped up and the two sides would hold negotiations on a lasting truce. Hamas earlier Thursday submitted a response to the latest ceasefire proposal which an Israeli official, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to brief the media, billed as 'workable.' American Jewish groups demand an investigation into Israeli settler violence Prominent religious Jewish leaders in the United States are calling on Israel to investigate a surge of settler violence against Palestinians and the recent killing of an American citizen by Israeli settlers in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. In a statement released Wednesday, the Central Conference of American Rabbis, the Union for Reform Judaism and the American Conference of Cantors said Israel must undertake a 'full investigation' into the death of Sayfollah Musallet, a Palestinian-American from Tampa, Florida. Palestinian authorities say Musallet was beaten to death by Israeli settlers while visiting family in the West Bank. Violence has spiraled in the occupied West Bank since the Hamas attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, with at least 955 Palestinians killed there by Israeli fire, according to the United Nations. The rabbis said Israel must also investigate the 'growing phenomenon' of settler violence overall. They wrote that the far-right government of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu 'seems to tolerate and even encourage violence against Palestinians.' Israeli official says Hamas' latest proposal is workable An Israeli official familiar with ceasefire talks said a Hamas proposal was 'workable' and that Israel was studying it. The official spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak on record. Hamas confirmed sending a response to mediators in an statement early Thursday. Israel said that it was reviewing Hamas' response to the latest ceasefire proposal to potentially wind down the war. A statement from the office of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu confirmed receipt of the Hamas response Thursday but did not specify what it entailed. — By Julia Frankel in Jerusalem Israeli fire kills two teens in the occupied West Bank Palestinian health officials said Thursday that two Palestinian teenage boys were killed by Israeli fire Wednesday night in the Israeli-occupied West Bank. Israel's military said its forces had fired at Palestinians throwing Molotov cocktails toward a highway, killing two near the West Bank town of Al-Khader. Palestinian health officials named the teens killed as Ahmed Al-Salah, 15, and Mohammed Khaled Alian Issa, 17. Violence has spiraled in the occupied West Bank since the war that began with Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023 attack on Israel. Over 955 Palestinians have been killed there by Israeli fire during that time, according to the United Nations, many during raids Israel says are to stamp out militancy. Error! 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Bloomberg
44 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Italian Rocket Maker Avio Seeks New Space Launches in Virginia
Italian rocket maker Avio SpA is in talks with the US government to conduct space launches from Wallops Island in Virginia, according to people familiar with the matter. The company has discussed the possibility with officials from the State Department, Commerce Department and Federal Aviation Administration, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private. If approved, the company would likely invest in new manufacturing sites and space ports in the US — a stipulation of the Trump administration, they said.


News24
44 minutes ago
- News24
EU says China's links with Russia now 'determining factor' in ties
EU chief Ursula von der Leyen warned on Thursday that China's ties with Russia were now the 'determining' factor in its relations with the European Union. She was wrapping up a summit in Beijing that also saw the bloc agree to speed up exports of rare earth minerals. China's leadership has sought to draw the European Union closer as it positions itself as a more reliable partner than the United States and a bedrock of stability in a troubled world. Though nominally intended to celebrate 50 years of diplomatic ties, the long list of grievances set the stage for a contentious summit. The EU has made clear there are deep divisions over trade, fears that cheap, subsidised Chinese goods could overwhelm European markets, and Beijing's tacit support for Russia's war against Ukraine. Brussels says China's deepening political and economic relations with Russia since the 2022 invasion represent backing for Moscow that has helped its economy weather sweeping Western sanctions. READ | EU to ramp up retaliation plans as US tariff deal prospects dim Wrapping up that summit, von der Leyen told a news conference in Beijing that the bloc had made clear that the issue was now the 'determining' factor in its relations with China. 'We expressed... our expectations that China would follow up on our concerns and the expectation that it would use its influence to bring Russia to accept a ceasefire, to come to the negotiation table, enter peace talks and put an end to the bloodshed,' she said. She also said the bloc had agreed with Beijing to an 'upgraded' mechanism for Chinese exports of rare earth minerals - another key sticking point in ties. And European Council President Antonio Costa, who was also in Beijing, said the officials had raised human rights concerns with Chinese officials. 'Deepen cooperation' China, in contrast, framed Thursday's summit as a way for the bloc and Beijing to deepen trust in a turbulent world - pitching itself as a reliable partner in contrast with the United States. Welcoming von der Leyen and Costa at Beijing's ornate Great Hall of the People, President Xi Jinping said, 'the more severe and complex the international situation is, the more important it is for China and the EU to strengthen communication, increase mutual trust and deepen cooperation'. In the context of that turmoil, Xi said, Chinese and European leaders must 'make correct strategic choices'. The challenges facing Europe at present do not come from China. 'There are no fundamental conflicts of interest or geopolitical contradictions between China and the EU,' the Chinese leader said. In response, von der Leyen said 'it is vital for China and Europe to acknowledge our respective concerns and come forward with real solutions'. Ties had reached an 'inflection point', she warned. Costa also stressed to the Chinese leader that the bloc wanted to see 'concrete progress on issues related to trade and the economy, and we both want our relationship to be... mutually beneficial'. In a separate meeting on Thursday, Chinese Premier Li Qiang told the two EU leaders that 'close cooperation' was a 'natural choice' for the two major economies. 'As long as both China and the EU earnestly uphold free trade, the international economy and trade will stay dynamic', he said. Brussels had acknowledged the talks between its top bosses and Chinese leaders would be tense. 'We know that we don't see eye to eye with China on many issues,' a senior EU official told AFP last week. 'But we believe that it is essential to have this kind of very direct and open and constructive conversation sitting at the table at the highest level.' Climate agreement China and the EU also vowed to 'step up' efforts to address climate change. The warming planet has historically been an area of convergence between Brussels and Beijing, with both sides signalling a willingness to cooperate on combating climate change. Chinese and European leaders agreed on enhancing bilateral cooperation in areas such as the energy transition and committed to accelerating global renewable energy deployment, a joint statement said. READ | 'Strategic allies': EU leaders praise Ramaphosa, announce €4.7bn package for energy, vaccines Also on the agenda for the EU is the yawning trade deficit with China that stood at around $360 billion last year and which von der Leyen has described as 'unsustainable'. Beijing has dismissed those concerns, insisting that Brussels must 'rebalance its mentality' rather than its economic ties with China. If EU concerns were not addressed, 'our industry and citizens will demand that we defend our interests', von der Leyen said in Thursday's talks with Li. The EU has imposed hefty tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, arguing that Beijing's subsidies unfairly undercut European competitors. China has rebuffed that claim and announced what were widely seen as retaliatory probes into imported European pork, brandy and dairy products.