Reading the tea leaves on Florida's next LG
Gov. RON DESANTIS has been able to shuffle personnel around the top levels of state government this year. One opening that still remains, though, is the No. 2 job in Tallahassee: lieutenant governor.
The most likely contender is Republican state Sen. JAY COLLINS of Hillsborough County, according to a dozen people close to the deliberations. The decision isn't final, the people cautioned, and others considered for the role include former House Speaker JOSE OLIVA and New College of Florida President RICHARD CORCORAN.
The selection is being closely watched because it could signal the governor may get behind that person to run for governor in 2026. He so far has snubbed President DONALD TRUMP's selection of Rep. BYRON DONALDS for the job, and Florida first lady CASEY DESANTIS is still deciding whether she'll run. (One of the more far-fetched rumors swirling around Tallahassee is that the governor might appoint his wife to be lieutenant governor.)
DeSantis has been without a No. 2 since February, after JEANETTE NUÑEZ accepted the top job at Florida International University. But Collins has been a key surrogate for DeSantis in the state Senate, including his defense of Hope Florida as the program faced scrutiny from his GOP colleagues.
Collins traveled to the Middle East last week to help the governor's office organize rescue flights for Americans to flee Israel. He had a difficult upbringing, born to a mother who was addicted to drugs and raised by his grandparents. He lost his father at a young age and lived out of his car for a time when he was in high school.
He's also a former Green Beret and decorated combat veteran who served tours in Iraq and Afghanistan during his 23 years in the military. Collins had part of his leg amputated during his military service but spent five more years with the Green Berets after that.
'He's well respected by the entire Legislature because of his military service,' said one Republican lobbyist, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations regarding the role. 'Even though he is relatively new to public office, he's a tenacious advocate who is also likable and principled. It's hard to attack a guy like him who has sacrificed so much purely because of his beliefs in democracy.'
But there's other important factors. Collins has been a reliable ally and staunch defender of DeSantis after the governor backed him in his bid for the state Senate. Collins is also willing to step into the job if given the slot. It's not clear if some of the other names recently mentioned are as eager to take the post of lieutenant governor, which does not really have any defined duties.
'There's no shortage of famous people who the governor wants, but there appears to be only one person who wants it — and that's Jay,' said one veteran Florida Republican operative, granted anonymity to speak candidly.
DeSantis initially suggested he would make some of his key outstanding appointments — which includes both LG and chief financial officer — after this year's legislative session was over. This week, the governor said he was focusing on going through the budget that lawmakers finally passed last week. There's also a possibility he could leave the 2nd spot open for a while — something former Gov. RICK SCOTT did.
Last Friday, DeSantis raved about Collins during an early morning press conference he held in Tampa to welcome people back from Israel. DeSantis said he had done a 'great job' and had a 'tremendous record.' And noting his recent work abroad, DeSantis said Collins is 'almost like an action figure in terms of him springing into action, running into the fire and helping people in their time of need.'
When asked about the possibility of becoming LG, Collins said it was an honor just for his name to be included on any potential list. But he also said, 'If the governor asks me to do that, you serve your state. How do you say no to that?'
Have a tip, story, suggestion, birthday, anniversary, new job, or any other nugget that Playbook should look at? Get in touch at: kleonard@politico.com.
... DATELINE TALLAHASSEE ...
ICE IN THE EVERGLADES — 'Florida's headline-grabbing push to create 'Alligator Alcatraz' — an immigration detention center deep in the Everglades — happened swiftly, with little apparent notice to state legislators responsible for paying for it or to local officials who will have it on their doorstep,' reports POLITICO's Gary Fineout and Bruce Ritchie.
'It also may prove to be one of Gov. Ron DeSantis' most aggressive moves during his six-plus years in office. Citing the governor's emergency powers, the state's emergency management director told Miami-Dade County that it was taking control of an Everglades airstrip now owned by Miami-Dade County and located mainly in Collier County in order to begin building the multimillion dollar facility.'
REPEALED — 'DeSantis on Tuesday signed a bill that would repeal a 2018 law governing how local governments establish public use of beaches,' reports POLITICO's Bruce Ritchie.
'DeSantis signed the bill in Walton County repealing the law that critics said emboldened property owners to put up no-trespassing signs and order visitors off beaches. The 2018 law repealed a Walton County ordinance establishing public access based across much of its coastline. The new state law required local governments to seek review by courts before establishing access based on the judicial doctrine of 'customary use.''
— 'New flood disclosures in rental agreements are coming to Florida,' reports Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics.
— 'DeSantis signs measure shielding some court documents from public records requests,' by Jesse Scheckner of Florida Politics.
NEW LAW PROPOSED — 'Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier is proposing a new law named in honor of a Tallahassee girl whose stepfather allegedly murdered her while he was out on bond after his conviction of a child sex crime,' reports Jeff Burlew of the Tallahassee Democrat.
'Uthmeier announced the proposed 'Missy's Law,' named after Melissa 'Missy' Mogle, in a June 24 post on X, saying the legislation is designed to 'prevent judges from abusing their discretion.''
SOME ANSWERS EMERGE IN SURFSIDE COLLAPSE — Investigators are 'focusing on three 'higher-likelihood' hypotheses out of its initial 12, each arising from construction flaws that doomed the building,' reports Linda Robertson of the Miami Herald.
'The collapse could have been triggered by failure of a slab-column connection in the pool deck, where the structural design did not meet building code standards. Steel reinforcement was missing or misplaced and eaten away by corrosion. Heavy planters and pavers added years later to the poorly-draining deck increased the load on a support system 'that was already functionally and structurally inadequate,' the report says.'
SEVENTH EXECUTION IN FLORIDA — 'A man convicted of raping and killing a woman near a central Florida bar was executed Tuesday evening,' The Associated Press reported. 'Thomas Lee Gudinas, 51, was pronounced dead at 6:13 p.m. after receiving a lethal injection at Florida State Prison near Starke, said Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for DeSantis.'
PENINSULA AND BEYOND
TAKING IT BACK — 'Miami businessman and philanthropist Miguel 'Mike' Fernandez has suspended a $1 million donation to Florida International University in protest of Florida's decision to strip in-state tuition benefits from undocumented students — a policy that was until recently endorsed by FIU's new president, Jeanette Nuñez,' reports Garrett Shanley of the Miami Herald.
DEPORTATION FEARS — 'This year's immigration actions have hit Haitians living in Florida as hard as a hurricane striking the Caribbean nation they call home, leaving thousands of people afraid of arrest, deportation and separation from their families,' reports Valentina Palm of the Palm Beach Post.
'Many are on the verge of losing legal status to live and work in the United States following two Supreme Court rulings and a policy change by President Donald Trump that has blocked travel to and from Haiti.'
OVERRIDE FAILS — 'Jacksonville Mayor Donna Deegan vetoed legislation that would have required some city-funded nonprofit organizations to determine the immigration status of people using their programs and deny service to anyone in the U.S. illegally,' reports David Bauerlein of the Jacksonville Florida Times-Union.
'Hours after Deegan delivered her veto message to City Council on June 24, council failed to overturn the veto. Council voted 8-7 to override the veto, falling short of the two-thirds support needed by council to reverse Deegan striking down the bill.'
— ''Stinks up the house': Apalachicola in crisis with city water unfit to drink, bathe in,' reports James Call of the Tallahassee Democrat.
— 'Florida men accused of stealing more than $100 million meant for people with special needs,' reports Mark Walker of The New York Times.
— 'More people are riding Brightline — but not enough to quiet concerns about its finances,' by WLRN's Tom Hudson.
— 'Immigration advocates protest ICE agreements outside sheriffs' convention in Broward,' by Shira Moolten of the South Florida Sun Sentinel.
CAMPAIGN MODE
SPECIAL ELECTION WINS — Former state Rep. LAVON BRACY DAVIS won the Democratic special election state Senate primary Tuesday night in a four-way contest. One of the candidates was her brother, former state Sen. RANDOLPH BRACY.
Because the area she's seeking to represent is heavily Democratic, Bracy Davis is likely to be sworn into the office, which was previously held by the late state Sen. GERALDINE THOMPSON, later this year. In a statement, Senate Democratic Leader LORI BERMAN praised Bracy Davis for her 'wealth of legislative experience and a long history of fighting for the rights of Floridians' and said she looked forward 'to having her join us in the fight for a more affordable Florida.'
RASHON YOUNG also won the primary over in state House District 40 — the seat Bracy Davis resigned from to run for state Senate. He'd competed against former state Rep. TRAVARIS MCCURDY. Young is Bracy Davis' former top aide whom she endorsed as her successor.
On Sept. 2, Bracy Davis will face off against Republican WILLIE MONTAGUE, founder of a faith-based rehab facility, while Young will face off against GOP TUAN LE, an aerospace engineer.
...HURRICANE HOLE...
FIRST STORM OF THE SEASON — The National Hurricane Center announced Tuesday that Tropical Storm Andrea had formed, though it's not a threat to land and should dissipate by later today.
— 'Can Florida handle hurricane recovery without federal support?' by Bea Lunardini of the Tampa Bay Times.
TRANSITION TIME
— Public affairs and lobbying firm Ballard Partners is pairing up with Global Nexus to expand into Mexico City. Their services will include public policy advocacy, regulatory affairs analysis and international market consulting.
— TARA POULTON has been promoted to chief of staff for Rep. Vern Buchanan's (R-Fla.) district offices. She was previously Buchanan's district director.
ODDS, ENDS AND FLORIDA MEN
— Former Rep. MATT GAETZ and GINGER GAETZ are expecting their first child early next year, the couple announced over X.
— 'Laura Loomer airs old texts with Tucker Carlson after he brands her 'world's creepiest human,'' by Isabel Keane of the Independent.
BIRTHDAYS: Florida Supreme Court Justice Carlos Muñiz … state Sen. Bryan Avila … South Miami mayor and former state Rep. Javier Fernández.
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Newsweek
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How JD Vance's Approval Rating Has Changed Since Becoming Vice President
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USA Today
35 minutes ago
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People abuse Medicaid. That's why Trump's Big Beautiful Bill makes it stronger.
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USA Today
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With their brand in the 'toilet,' Democrats commence shadow 2028 primary for president
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He and other potential GOP figures are ready to dig Democrats a deeper hole. More: JD Vance is now the MAGA heir-apparent. Does that make him the front-runner for 2028? While voting won't commence in the next White House race for 17 more months, that's not stopping a number of sitting governors, senators and other aspiring future Democratic presidents to be making pilgrimages to early voting states. They're also penning memoirs, doing marathon podcast interviews, squirreling away campaign cash and outlining their stances on topics that will be relevant to the progressive base, moderates and eventually independent voters down the line. More: Kamala Harris explores 'drama of running for president' in new book on 2024 bid All of the preliminary jockeying from such a diverse and crowded unofficial field suggests a resilience among rank-and-file Democrats despite abysmal approval ratings that haven't been this low among voters since 1990. "The only way to begin to improve it is through whoever the next presidential nominee will be," Dallek said "The stakes, in that sense, are higher. It's not just the presidency. It's not just the nomination. There's a sense among Democrats that they need to do this, and there's a big debate." Raising brands and saving campaign cash Several 2028 hopefuls have already begun to make strategic moves to keep their name in the mix with the party faithful. About a dozen have visited or have plans to make stops in the early primary states, such as Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker, 60, who in April caught attention for delivering a searing speech in New Hampshire aimed at 'do-nothing' Democrats. Sen. Ruben Gallego, 45, of Arizona, whose name has lately shot up on the rumored list of White House candidates, is set to attend two events in the Granite State later this month too, further fueling speculation that he's a possible contender. "I'll be on the ground in New Hampshire... taking on the GOP's billionaire agenda and standing up for working families," Gallego, who was elected to the Senate last fall, said in a July 29 post on X. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, 57, trekked through rural South Carolina in July. He was followed by Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear, 47, who talked up flipping red states with union leaders and later Rep. Ro Khanna, 48, D-Calif., who made a four-day tour featuring town halls and visits to Black churches. Former U.S. Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg, 43, may claim he "isn't running for anything" but his May trip to Iowa for a veterans-focused forum focused heavily on existential questions facing Democrats and the country. Buttigieg shot to fame running for president in 2020 as the mayor of South Bend, Indiana, and he has been raising his national brand through a podcast tour. Other potential contenders are also taking the podcast route, including Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, 46, who recently lamented how Democrats "gave up on" entire swaths of the country during a July 29 sit-down chat on former DNC chair Jaime Harrison's "At Our Table." "I'm very much am a person of action, and I think as a party we've got to stop being the party of 'no and slow' and start being the party of 'yes and now,'" said Moore, whose name is tossed around despite saying he isn't running for president. More: Harris campaign's embrace of social media influencers is years in the making Nina Smith, a Democratic strategist who worked on Buttigieg's 2020 presidential campaign, said these early moves serve the candidates by creating and maintaining local connections. They also lend to rebuilding the party's brand organically through the excitement of a nominee. "There's some juice, there's some fire, from the perspective of people who want to step up and lead and be the standard bearer for our party," Smith said. "We're kind of spoiled for choices in that regard. That's a good thing." Such an elongated presidential campaign can exhaust resources as much as voters, which may explain why notable 2028 contenders are storing up massive cash reserves. Khanna, whose California district is located in the heart of Silicon Valley, had roughly $14.2 million in his campaign coffers at the end of June, according to the latest Federal Election Commission report. Other congressional Democrats on the 2028 list who can legally transfer their funds to a presidential campaign include Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., 35, who had a record-breaking first quarter haul this year and had about $9.8 million in the bank. Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., 51, a media maven with possible White House aspirations, holds approximately $10.2 million in his accounts. Big debates on Trump, affordability and Gaza lie ahead One feature of the pre-primary jockeying that is coming into focus is the major differences within the Democratic ranks, such as how best to oppose the Trump administration's bulldozing agenda. An example of that larger debate was on display on Capitol Hill this past week when Sen. Cory Booker, D-NJ, a rumored 2028 contender, blasted his fellow party members for supporting a bundle of proposals backed by the GOP administration that would increase resources and funding to police departments and officers. More: 'It's with a full heart that I share this news': Cory Booker drops out of 2020 race "This, to me, is the problem with Democrats in America right now is we're willing to be complicit to Donald Trump to let this pass through when we have all the leverage right now," said Booker, 56, who ran a short-lived 2020 presidential campaign and has garnered renewed interest since delivering a record-breaking Senate speech. Booker's comment outraged Sen. Amy Klobuchar, D-Minn., 65, another prospective and former 2020 White House contender, who needled him for missing a committee hearing on the bipartisan package. There are other issues for Democrats to sort out as well, such as navigating the rising populism from the left over cost of living concerns that helped propel Zohran Mamdani's primary win in the New York City mayor's race. Former Chicago Mayor Rahm Emanuel, 65, a centrist-aligned Democrat who is being urged to run by more moderate voices, has cautioned against Democrats embracing the 33-year-old New Yorker who is hoping Big Apple voters will pick him this November to lead the nation's largest city. "Recognizing that the American dream is unaffordable and inaccessible and that working hard no longer guarantees getting ahead isn't a socialist observation; it's clear to people of all political stripes," Emanuel said in a June 26 op-ed to the Wall Street Journal. More: Rahm Emanuel warns Democrats in 2020 not to play to 'socialist' type "Affordable healthcare, lifetime retirement security and affordable community college are as American as apple pie, but they won't be realized by consulting the Democratic Socialists of America's playbook," added Emanuel, who most recently served as Biden's U.S. ambassador to Japan and previously was an Illinois congressman and White House chief of staff to then-President Barack Obama. Feldman, the former Gore advisor, said there's a lot of energy among the progressive wing of the party that can't be dismissed, but he questions if someone such as Mamdani could be competitive in a national general election. 'My argument would be, no, he couldn't be,' Feldman said. 'So, you know, there'll be an argument between the various factions in the Democratic Party about what policies we want to present to the American people, and can you harness the energy in the electorate.' More: Election 2024 recap: 'We accept the results,' Harris concedes Other Democratic thinkers agree these sort of sparring matches are inevitable but that they should be looked at more optimistically in the 2028 context given the presidential field is expected to include uber-progressives, centrists and even moderately conservative. "It's gonna be messy and personal, and it's going to feel bad sometimes in the process, but I think it's going to help us shape as a party, what we believe," Amanda Litman, a former Obama 2012 and Hillary Clinton 2016 campaign staffer who co-founded Run for Something, a progressive group that supports candidates for public office, told USA TODAY. Progressives versus everyone else? Every potential 2028 contender will have to talk about a voter's lived experiences and connect with them on the issues that matter most, according to various Democrats who spoke with USA TODAY. But they will also have to evolve with the progressive base on issues the mainstream party has been fearful to embrace. Former Rep. Jamaal Bowman, D-N.Y., who lost his reelection bid last year, is touting new polling by Data for Progress released in late July that shows of New York City primary voters strongly sympathize with Palestinians. The survey found support for Palestinian rights fueled much of Mamdani's support, including 78% of respondents who said Israel is committing genocide in the region and another 79% who said they support restricting weapons to the U.S. ally. Bowman, who was opposed heavily by pro-Israel groups, pointed out that Khanna stood up early as one of the first members of Congress to call for a cease-fire during the Biden era, saying his former colleague should get "a lot of credit for that." As the 2028 field takes shape, Bowman argued that the party cannot be seen as titling the scales against more left-leaning contenders. He also warned the possible presidential contenders that they should not ignore the shifting tides that populist-minded progressives are causing, especially amid widespread reports of starvation in Gaza. "I expect a robust primary debate," Bowman told USA TODAY. "And I hope that ideas rule the day over special interests and politics where we can see the rise of an authentic, historic leadership."
