Central Banks Fret More Over FX ‘Weaponization,' UBS Survey Says
The share of managers who regard the geopolitical weaponization of FX reserves as an investment risk increased sharply to 49% in 2025 from 32% last year, according to a UBS Group AG survey of nearly 40 central banks completed last month. In 2023, the figure was 14%.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Skift
32 minutes ago
- Skift
The 2025 Half-Time Airline Report
In this week's show, hosts Gordon and Jay take a step back to reflect on a fascinating first six months of 2025. From geopolitical shocks to consolidation questions, we assess some of the biggest trends of the year so far. In this episode, Gordon and Jay put into perspective the first half of 2025 in the airline industry, discussing key trends such as global demand, the impact of the U.S. dollar, and the ongoing consolidation within the industry. They also explore how weather patterns are affecting tourism, the economic implications of tariffs, and the potential for mergers and acquisitions as airlines navigate a changing landscape. Looking ahead, they highlight the importance of monitoring oil prices and supply chain issues as the industry moves into the second half of the year. Listen to This Podcast Apple Podcasts | Spotify | YouTube | RSS Takeaways
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
What do China's surging exports mean for the world?
-- China's recent export surge is creating ripple effects across global trade, with UBS analysts warning of a potential 'second China shock.' According to UBS, 'export volumes [are] up 20%' over the past two years, compared to just 6% growth in the rest of the world, marking China's strongest trade outperformance since joining the World Trade Organization. Much of this growth is being directed toward emerging markets (EM), which now account for over half of China's exports and trade surplus, said the bank. 'That China's share of final demand is rising in sectors ranging from Latam autos to ASEAN household appliances shows that its export penetration runs far deeper than cyclical 'transshipping' effects,' UBS wrote. They add that the quality of Chinese goods is improving, and the country's export momentum continues even as negative price deflators ease. 'This isn't just about low prices… quality is playing an increasingly important role,' UBS noted. While some of China's export strengths are in building new supply chains, such as Hungarian autos and Indonesian mining, UBS cautioned that the broader trend could weigh on other EM economies. 'China's rising export competitiveness may compromise growth in the rest of EM,' the analysts warned, citing weak FDI inflows, declining manufacturing/GDP ratios, and deflationary pressures in sectors like chemicals and household products. UBS sees limited near-term progress in China's efforts to curb overcapacity. Despite higher U.S. tariffs and attempts to boost domestic consumption, 'disinflationary spillovers' are likely to persist. 'These disinflationary spillovers will leave EM central banks with more work to do,' UBS added. The implications for global markets are said to be mixed, with some EM equities potentially benefiting from looser monetary policy, particularly in countries less exposed to Chinese competition. Related articles What do China's surging exports mean for the world? Fed's Bostic says tariffs effects may take a year 'to fully play out' President Trump's views on Japan tariffs may be misinformed, says PM Ishiba Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Forbes
an hour ago
- Forbes
Buy, Sell, Or Hold Tripadvisor Stock?
CHINA - 2025/03/07: In this photo illustration, A woman browses Tripadvisor website on her laptop. ... More (Photo Illustration by Serene Lee/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images) Tripadvisor stock (NASDAQ: TRIP) surged 8% on July 2 — significantly surpassing the S&P 500's modest 0.47% increase — after activist investor Starboard Value revealed a stake exceeding 9% in the online travel company. The approximately $160 million investment caused shares to climb another 7% in after-hours trading on Wednesday. The timing of Starboard's action is significant. Tripadvisor has faced challenges lately, with shares declining roughly 15% over the past year, and the company has been considering strategic options since early 2024. This process commenced shortly after Tripadvisor entered into a $435 million agreement to acquire its majority stakeholder, Liberty TripAdvisor, last December. In January, the firm also revealed that it received a non-binding proposal from a strategic bidder. Despite the activist enthusiasm, Tripadvisor's fundamentals paint a more serious picture. Nevertheless, those looking for growth with less volatility than individual stocks may want to look into the High Quality portfolio, which has outperformed the S&P 500 with returns exceeding 91% since its inception. Separately, refer to Seagate Stock to $85? Valuation: Not a Bargain At first sight, Tripadvisor may seem attractively priced, exhibiting a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 1.0 compared to the S&P 500's 3.1. However, a more detailed examination uncovers a significantly less appealing valuation. The company trades at a price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 61.3, nearly three times the S&P 500's 20.9, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 41.1, well above the benchmark's 26.9. These high multiples imply that investors are paying a substantial premium for a company exhibiting lackluster financial results. Additionally, see our analysis on Tripadvisor's valuation. Revenue Stalled and Margins Are Weak Tripadvisor's top-line growth has slowed, with revenue rising only 1.4% in the past 12 months and just 0.8% year-over-year in the most recent quarter. This deceleration raises questions about the company's capability to sustain future growth. Concurrently, Tripadvisor is facing difficulties in converting sales to profits. Its operating margin stands at a modest 6.5% for the last four quarters, while its free cash flow margin is merely 5.8%, well below the S&P 500's 14.9%. The company's net margin is even more concerning at 2.9%, compared to 11.6% for the overall market. These disappointing profitability indicators highlight Tripadvisor's struggles in providing shareholder value. Financial Health: Mixed Picture Tripadvisor's balance sheet showcases a mixed scenario. The company has $1.3 billion in debt, leading to a debt-to-equity ratio of 68.9%—considerably higher than the S&P 500 average of 19.4%. However, this leverage is somewhat balanced by a strong cash position, with $1.2 billion in cash and equivalents representing a substantial 42% of total assets. While the elevated debt level raises some concerns, Tripadvisor's solid liquidity offers a meaningful safety net. Resilience in Downturns: Troubling History Historically, Tripadvisor stock has underperformed during market downturns. In the 2022 inflation-driven selloff, TRIP fell 60.5%, more than double the S&P 500's 25.4% decline. Similarly, during the COVID-19 pandemic, the stock declined 53.9%, again trailing the broader market. Notably, Tripadvisor has yet to recover its pre-pandemic heights and currently trades around $15—less than a quarter of its 2021 peak—highlighting its limited resilience in volatile conditions. Our dashboard How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash captures how key stocks performed during and after the past six market crashes. The Bottom Line Tripadvisor falls short in the areas that matter most. While its growth has been reasonable, that momentum is clearly diminishing. Profitability remains extremely weak, and although the company's financial situation is relatively stable, it is far from indestructible. Its performance in economic downturns has been exceedingly poor, and the current valuation appears disconnected from its fundamental aspects. Even with renewed interest from activist investor Starboard Value, Tripadvisor presents a weak case for long-term investors. Its high valuation, alongside sluggish growth, narrow margins, and a history of underperformance in turbulent markets, renders it an undesirable investment. While it would be advisable to steer clear of TRIP stock for the time being, you might consider the Trefis Reinforced Value (RV) Portfolio, which has outperformed its all-cap stock benchmark (a combination of the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 benchmark indices) to yield strong returns for investors. Why is that? The quarterly rebalanced mixture of large-, mid-, and small-cap RV Portfolio stocks has offered a responsive strategy to capitalize on favorable market conditions while limiting losses when markets decline, as explained in RV Portfolio performance metrics.
