Sheriff hints at ‘after action' review, as records reveal warning of ‘worst-case flood event'
On Wednesday, during a morning press conference, they updated the death count to 95 with 161 people still missing. While again avoiding answers about specific actions in the hours between weather warnings and the Guadalupe River rising 30 feet, Sheriff Larry Leitha said there would be an 'after-action' review following his 'priority' of notifying victims' families.
'We will answer those questions,' Leitha told reporters. 'I wish y'all would bear with me on that, okay? Bear with me. We'll get them. I can't tell you when – in a week or two, okay? We're gonna get them.'
The sheriff also assured answers for 'the people that put me in this office' regarding concerns over the county's CodeRED alerts – which allow subscribers to receive emergency notifications to their mobile devices. The effectiveness of the alerts has surfaced during press events, along with the revelation that Kerr County has no system of warning devices – like sirens – to alert the public, despite a decade of failed attempts to fund and install such a system.
Officials, like County Judge Rob Kelly, have maintained they 'did not know this flood was coming,' though the National Weather Service issued a flood watch Thursday – the day before the disaster. It also issued a flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. Friday, still hours before the river hit its height.
The county has not fully explained the timing of evacuations. At 5:31 a.m., it made an initial post on Facebook: 'Be safe and move to higher ground. Do not drive through water. Turn Around – Don't Drown!' A minute later, the sheriff's office also reposted NWS information on its own Facebook page, adding: 'If you are near the water, move to higher ground immediately. Stay clear of low water crossings – turn around, don't drown!'
Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick has also said the Texas Division of Emergency Management communicated directly with county judges and city mayors about the weather forecast the day before the flood. At Wednesday's press conference, Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring, Jr., said he 'did not receive a telephone call' and did not know what resources TDEM had in place. He did not confirm if Kelly was part of any call.
'I wasn't invited to the call,' Herring said. 'Maybe I'm not a local mayor. I can't tell.'
KXAN has requested a response on those claims and also a record of communication between local leaders, the NWS, TDEM and other state officials – along with any emergency notifications made – to better understand decisions regarding communication and their public warnings.
'This is the most dangerous river valley in the United States, and we deal with floods on a regular basis – when it rains, we get water,' Kelly said Friday. 'We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what has happened here, none whatsoever.'
But a KXAN review of the county's most recent hazard mitigation plan shows officials there have known for years flooding was a major threat in the area – and was getting worse.
Under the Federal Disaster Mitigation Act of 2000, the county is required to have a Federal Emergency Management Agency-approved Local Hazard Mitigation Plan in order to be eligible for certain pre- and post-disaster mitigation funds. The latest 220-page plan was formally adopted by Kelly and county commissioners and then submitted to FEMA this April.
REVIEW: 2024 Kerr County Hazard Mitigation Action Plan
Stakeholders in the plan included the county, the cities of Ingram and Kerrville, the Kerrville Independent School District, the Kerrville Public Utility Board and the Upper Guadalupe River Authority. Representatives compiling the plan included both Kerr County and Kerrville's emergency management coordinator, Kerrville's fire chief and the UGRA general manager.
The group met twice, beginning in March 2024, and conducted public outreach in May and October that year. Their research included historic weather data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, the county's previous hazard mitigation plan from 2018 and flood damage prevention ordinances for the county, Kerrville and Ingram each – which identified building requirements and restrictions for structures in the floodplain.
Kerr County's emergency management coordinator, William B. 'Dub' Thomas – who has held the post since November 2015 but has not been a primary part of any public appearance or press event since last week's flood – is responsible for the 'continued coordination and monitoring of the mitigation plan' during its 5-year duration. At that point, the planning team is supposed to re-evaluate and update the document, giving members an opportunity to 'identify recent losses due to natural hazards and to consider whether any of those losses could have been avoided.' Thomas has not responded to KXAN's inquiries.
The plan notes under 'likelihood of future events,' the group 'determined it is likely that Kerr County and participating jurisdictions will experience a flood event in the next year, meaning an event is probable in the next three years.'
The plan detailed at least 106 'flood occurrences' dating back to 1960, including the two most recently listed in 2018 – both flash floods with no injuries, fatalities or property damage. It also noted recent flooding events throughout the county have resulted in up to 10 inches of flood water and that future 'worst-case flood events' could exceed those depths.
A section on 'impact' said that could include:
Residents temporarily losing power due to downed power lines;
Motorists and residents being left stranded and needed rescue;
Structures being flooded, damaged or even completely washed away;
Roads being washed out;
Emergency care centers having limited access.
While unlikely, the danger from a 500-year flood – which has a 0.2% chance of occurring in any given year – was described as 'not negligible' in the plan. It also mentioned climate change could make the river flooding more frequent.
Among the plan's main goals was reducing loss of life and injury, with specific objectives including:
Improving the delivery and effectiveness of warning messages;
Reducing obstacles to timely and safe evacuation of flood hazard areas.
Related to the county's previous mitigation plan from 2018, the updated plan identified actions yet to be implemented – or in progress – but still necessary, including:
Creating a program to educate the public about specific mitigation actions for all hazards (in progress; medium priority; estimated cost – less than $10,000 per hazard)
Proposing a local flood warning system to reduce the potential impacts of future flood events (deferred to plan update; medium priority; estimated cost – less that $1 million)
KXAN is awaiting a response from the county about the status of the plan's implementation and whether it was followed during last week's flood.
Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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Yahoo
24 minutes ago
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'Don't drown': Timeline of the Guadalupe River flooding disaster
In the early days of July, pieces of weather systems were converging to create a disaster over Texas Hill Country that would transform the Guadalupe River into a monster raging out of its banks in the pre-dawn hours of July 4, claiming the lives of more than 129 people. At least 160 are still missing. The hours leading up to the tragedy, and the actions taken to protect the lives of those in the water's hellish fury, are critical to understanding what happened and whether more could have been done in the name of safety. Through a National Weather Service messaging service with emergency management officials and broadcast meteorologists, U.S. Geological Survey data and other records, USA TODAY has pieced together a timeline of the calamity on the Guadalupe. As early as July 1, the National Weather Service began warning of the potential for heavy rains. Bits of Tropical Storm Barry, which dissipated over eastern Mexico on June 30 but were still loaded with rain after their journey over the warm Bay of Campeche, were moving into Texas. Tropical moisture from the eastern Pacific, which has been cranking out storms this summer, also was moving into the region. By July 2, the weather service began warning that Hill Country could continue to see showers and isolated storms "well into Friday morning." In the end, a terrible deluge, greater than anyone expected, fell over the steep hills and rugged terrain, delivering up to 20 inches of rain over three days in some parts of the region. In the headwaters of the Guadalupe River, where its North and South forks converge west of Hunt, Texas, the rain flowed down hills and rushed into the river, surprising homeowners, campers and vacationers. "It's hard to believe the devastation," President Donald Trump said Friday as he visited the flooded region. "We are grieving with you," said First Lady Melania. "Our nation is grieving with you." The geological survey maintains gauges in the river that track the surface height of the water. Even though the reported measurements are still considered preliminary, they provide the clearest picture of the river's explosive rise. Here are the hours leading up to the disaster: Slow-moving convective storms may rain over and over in the same location and cause flash flooding in the Hill Country region of Texas, advises the National Weather Service's Weather Prediction Center. Weather service meteorologists join a Zoom call with more than a dozen state and local emergency management officials to discuss the rain and forecast. It isn't known whether Kerr County officials were on the call. What Texas cities flooded? Here's where the most rain fell over the Independence Day weekend Storms are increasingly blanketing south-central Texas, says the weather service office in Austin/San Antonio, adding it's "closely monitoring for the potential of locally heavy rain today and tonight." The weather service says it will issue a flood watch for parts of South Central Texas, including Hill Country and the Rio Grande, because of the "abundant tropical moisture in place and the potential for heavy rain this afternoon into the evening and into the overnight hours." A Flood Watch through 7 a.m. is posted on the weather service office Facebook page, for western Hill Country, the Rio Grande and the southern portion of the Edwards Plateau. The plateau is an elevated region formed from marine deposits such as limestone and sandstone when the area was covered by an ocean some 100 million years ago. Moments earlier, the Texas Division of Emergency Management posted a news release on Facebook, announcing it had activated its emergency operations center and adding resources ahead of expected heavy rainfall and flash flooding threats over the holiday weekend. In a weather discussion, the prediction center says it's seeing "concerning trends for back-building and training thunderstorms" over the Texas Hill Country that could produce more than 3 inches of rain an hour, thanks to a bit of Barry's leftover circulation. High levels of moisture, a "quite unstable" atmosphere, and a jet of winds could all contribute to heavier rain. Given the prolific rainfall potential, the weather service says "locally considerable flash flooding this evening is possible." In response to a request from Bexar County, the weather service says some models bring moderate to heavy rain across the northwest part of the Bexar, while others keep the activity over the southern Edwards Plateau. Moments later, the weather service says it expects shower and thunderstorm activity to increase over the next 3 to 4 hours , with some models suggesting the heaviest rain potential across the southern portion of the plateau. In Kerrville, one of the gauges in the Guadalupe River first begins to detect a slight rise in the water level. In an "URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED," the weather service expands the flood watch to Bexar, Kendall, Gillespie and Llano counties through 7 a.m. on July 4, and says isolated amounts of 5 to 7 inches of rain are possible. "Pockets of heavy rain are affecting Kendall County and then heading to parts of Gillespie and Blanco Counties," the weather service states, which could add to the 1 to 2 inches that have fallen over some areas in 3 hours. A flood advisory posts for Bandera County, Kerr County's neighbor to the south, after 1 to 2 inches of rain, with additional rainfall moving in. Weather service upgrades to a flash flood warning for Bandera County because it's seeing rain potential of 5 to 7 inches near Tarpley. Soon after, a rain gauge near Tarpley shows 2.68 inches of rain in 45 minutes. Areas of flash flooding will be likely across Central Texas overnight with "very heavy rainfall" expected, with hourly rainfall in excess of 2 to 3 inches and six-hour totals over 6 inches, the Weather Prediction Center announces. It warns of "training" (rain in the same place again and again) over Bandera and San Saba counties, and southeast of San Angelo. "These areas of heavy rainfall are expected to result in a few areas of flash flooding through the overnight, some of which may become locally significant." Storms are beginning to merge over central Kerr County and will be an area to watch for potential flash flooding, the weather service says. The Guadalupe River at a gauge above Bear Creek near Kerrville begins to rise. The weather service issues "a Flash Flood Warning" for northwest Bandera County into central Kerr County. The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe River at Hunt, Texas shows the river's flow increasing and water height creeping upward. The water rises about a tenth of a foot in 25 minutes. The USGS gauge on Guadalupe at Kerrville has risen 6 inches in 2.5 hours, reaching a height of .84 feet at the gauge. Rain rates have increased across south-central Kerr County, with an estimated 2 to 4 inches of rain so far, the weather service says. "Flooding is likely to begin in the warned area if it hasn't already." " It advises officials and broadcast meteorologists to push the reminder "Turn Around, Don't Drown," especially in the hills at night, when it is harder to recognize the depth of the water over a road. The Guadalupe gauge at Hunt shows a rise of .84 feet in an hour. Its flow in cubic feet per second is 30 times faster. The radar estimates 2 to 5 inches of rain has fallen in south-central Kerr County, the weather service says. "Flash flooding has likely begun." At the River Inn Resort in Hunt, Texas, the manager wakes up Randy and Mollie Schaffer, banging on their door and telling them to evacuate immediately because the river is "about to overflow its banks," Randy Schaffer wrote later in a Facebook post. (The Schaffers evacuated but their SUV was swept into the current. He escaped the raging waters, but lost his beloved Mollie.) At the gauge near Hunt, the Guadalupe has risen 6.29 feet in two hours. Water flow is 1,000 times faster. A downstream flood warning will be issued for the Guadalupe River at Kerrville, and a flash flood warning for south-central Kerr and northwest Bandera extended until 7 a.m., the weather service says. It's issued at 3:33 a.m. "Again, this is a very dangerous flash flood event unfolding." The latest river forecast takes Guadalupe at Hunt to "major flood stage," the weather service says. Eight minutes later, at 4:04 a.m., the service upgrades the Flash Flood Warning to a Flash Flood Emergency. Meanwhile the Guadalupe above Bear Creek also begins to transform, rising six inches in three hours. Screams wake Kolton Taylor at Camp La Junta on the Guadalupe. He climbs from his bed into knee-high floodwaters that soon become waist-high. He later tells his mother, Janet Davis, he hears sounds "he won't ever forget." Weather service radar estimates a swath of 5 to 10 inches of rain has fallen in 3 to 6 hours across south-central Kerr County, with 7.85 inches measured just upstream of the community of Hunt. "This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION and a Flash Flood EMERGENCY is in effect through 7 AM," the weather service warns. The Guadalupe River's flow at the USGS gauge near Hunt has grown from 9 cubic feet per second at 1:20 a.m. to 72,100 cubic feet per second, pushing the river 17 feet higher. The heaviest rainfall begins to shift north in Kerr County and the weather service says it will issue a flood advisory for southwest Gillespie County. The Guadalupe rises sharply and reaches its 2nd highest height on record near Hunt, higher than a terrible deadly flood in July 1987, the weather service says. "This flood wave will continue downstream through Kerrville and Comfort. This is a very dangerous and life-threatening flood event along the Guadalupe River!" Minutes later, the West Gulf River Forecast Center upgrades its forecast for the river to crest at 34 feet at Hunt, near its record height at that gauge, set in 1932 at 36.6 feet. The measuring gauge at Hunt sends its last reading before being submerged, showing the water level rose from a height of 7.69 to 37.52 feet in less than 4 hours. Downstream on the Guadalupe, the gauge at Kerrville has risen a foot. It will rise 3.5 feet in the next 14 minutes and more than 7 feet in 30 minutes. The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Bear Creek shows a rise of 9 feet in an hour. The Kerrville Police Department posts on Facebook ***FLOOD ALERT***. It states the weather service reports record high water in Hunt and that anyone near the Guadalupe River "needs to move to higher ground now." After talking with emergency management officials, the weather service says it will issue a Flash Flood Emergency for the Guadalupe River from Hunt through Kerrville and down to Center Point. "This will allow for wireless emergency alerts of cell phones for residents and campers along the river. This is a very dangerous and potentially deadly flood wave moving down the river." High water rescues are ongoing along the Guadalupe River and South Fork of the Guadalupe River in Hunt, with people on roof tops, local emergency officials tell the weather service. The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Kerrville shows the river has risen 24.2 feet in one hour. The Kerr County Sheriff's Office posts on Facebook: 'DANGEROUS FLOODING NOW on the Guadalupe River in Hunt.' Widespread rain, some heavy, continues falling across Hill Country, with a flash flood emergency ongoing for south-central Kerry County. "Continue to push for people to move to higher ground if they are along the Guadalupe River in Kerr County! Otherwise avoid travel through the county," the weather service says. The sun rises in Kerrville, Texas, allowing flood victims still clinging to trees and debris to begin seeing the full devastating destruction around them. A rain gauge on the USGS equipment at Hunt, reports 7.54 inches of rain, the weather service reports. The USGS gauge on the Guadalupe at Hunt reaches its highest point – 34.29 feet, an increase of 32.47 feet in an hour and forty-five minutes. The weather service issues another flash flood emergency along the Guadalupe, downstream from Center Point to below Comfort. Embedded content: A flash flood warning is issued for western Gillespie County, where 2-4 inches rain has fallen and another 1 to 3 inches is possible. An additional 2 to 4 inches of rain could fall in Kerr County, the weather service says, which could produce another small rise in river levels. A meteorologist with CBS tells the weather service a viewer with family in law enforcement reported an entire RV park was swept downstream in Ingram with families inside the trailers. A video from behind Howdy's Bar and Chill confirmed the river was climbing to the back of the restaurant, says the weather service. "This is a catastrophic flooding event in Kerr County," the Sheriff's Office posts on Facebook. "We can confirm fatalities ... and the entire county is an extremely active scene." Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick confirms during its news briefing that "somewhere between 6 and 10 bodies have been found," emphasizing that number would change. At Camp Mystic, a waterfront girls camp south of the Hunt community, 23 girls are unaccounted for, Patrick says. "That does not mean they've been lost. They could be in a tree. They could be out of communication. We're praying for all of those missing to be found alive." Contributing: Christopher Cann, Rick Jervis and Marc Ramirez, USA TODAY Dinah Voyles Pulver, a national correspondent for USA TODAY, writes about climate change, violent weather and other news. Reach her at dpulver@ or @dinahvp on Bluesky or X or dinahvp.77 on Signal. This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: 'Don't drown': The timeline of deadly flooding in Texas Hill Country
Washington Post
2 hours ago
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July 14 weather update
The inside scoop on D.C. weather from the Capital Weather Gang. Get your D.C. area weather update in under a minute on weekday mornings.
Washington Post
2 hours ago
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CWG Live updates: Tropical-like humidity may fuel flooding rains later today
Welcome to updated around-the-clock by Capital Weather Gang meteorologists. Happening now: A shower or downpour could flare up any time today amid sauna-like humidity levels. But the evening brings the highest chance of heavy storms, capable of producing flooding. What's next? It's humid all week with highs most days near 90. Tuesday might offer a break from storm chances before they're back each afternoon and evening Wednesday into the weekend. Today's daily digit — 1/10: The grotesque humidity, storm chances and incessant flood watches are out of control. | 🤚 Your call? The digit is a somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a 0-to-10 scale. Forecast in detail Today (Monday): The humidity hits you like a wet blanket when you head out today (dew points in the mid-70s). Skies vary between mostly cloudy and partly sunny and a pop-up downpour is possible anytime. That said, it's dry more often than not and highs reach 85 to 90. Winds are light from the south. Toward evening, showers and storms, some with torrential rain, become numerous. Confidence: Medium-High Tonight: Evening showers and storms are likely (70 percent chance) and some could produce areas of flooding — particularly between 5 and 10 p.m. or so. It's also possible that a couple of storms are severe with damaging wind gusts. The rain should move off overnight, with muggy lows in the low to mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow (Tuesday): Humidity levels remain oppressive amid partly sunny skies. Highs range from 85 to 90 with light winds from the south. Storm chances are lower than Monday — or around 25 percent — but a few could still pop up, especially south and west of the Beltway. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow night: There's about a 1-in-3 chance of showers and storms both during the evening and overnight. Overnight lows range from the low to mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High A look ahead The forecast between Wednesday and Sunday is more or less a broken record. The day are partly sunny and very humid while the nights are partly cloudy and muggy. Showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening. Some things to know: Today's daily digit — 1/10: The grotesque humidity, storm chances and incessant flood watches are out of control. | 🤚 Your call? The digit is a somewhat subjective rating of the day's weather, on a 0-to-10 scale. Forecast in detail Today (Monday): The humidity hits you like a wet blanket when you head out today (dew points in the mid-70s). Skies vary between mostly cloudy and partly sunny and a pop-up downpour is possible anytime. That said, it's dry more often than not and highs reach 85 to 90. Winds are light from the south. Toward evening, showers and storms, some with torrential rain, become numerous. Confidence: Medium-High Tonight: Evening showers and storms are likely (70 percent chance) and some could produce areas of flooding — particularly between 5 and 10 p.m. or so. It's also possible that a couple of storms are severe with damaging wind gusts. The rain should move off overnight, with muggy lows in the low to mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow (Tuesday): Humidity levels remain oppressive amid partly sunny skies. Highs range from 85 to 90 with light winds from the south. Storm chances are lower than Monday — or around 25 percent — but a few could still pop up, especially south and west of the Beltway. Confidence: Medium-High Tomorrow night: There's about a 1-in-3 chance of showers and storms both during the evening and overnight. Overnight lows range from the low to mid-70s. Confidence: Medium-High A look ahead The forecast between Wednesday and Sunday is more or less a broken record. The day are partly sunny and very humid while the nights are partly cloudy and muggy. Showers and storms are possible each afternoon and evening. Some things to know:
