
Tamil Nadu's capital expenditure grew over 16% in fiscal 2025
Capital expenditure (capex) goes towards creation of fixed assets, such as roads and bridges, irrigation structures, schools, hospitals, along with investments made in Public Sector Undertakings. It helps in improving economic activity and generating employment.
The capital expenditure for fiscal 2025 is also in line with the projection made in the revised estimates. The overall Capital Expenditure in the Revised Estimates was projected at ₹46,766 crore, as compared to ₹47,681 crore in the initial Budget Estimates for 2024-25, as per the State Budget for 2025-2026.
'The 16% growth in fiscal 2025 indicates a sustained focus on capex by the State government. The capex growth achieved in fiscal 25 provisional is much better than the compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 12.3% during fiscal 2018-2024,' Paras Jasrai, associate director, India Ratings & Research, said.
He said this is a positive development. 'In fact, a better way to look at it is comparing the actual overall capex (including loans and advances) as a proportion of the budgeted numbers. A closer look at the data reveals that Tamil Nadu has met 95.2% of the budgeted target in fiscal 2025, which is much better than fiscal 2024 number of 86.2% and 95.4% in fiscal 2023, as well as the average of 88.1% during FY18-FY24,' Mr. Jasrai said.
According to him, the State has also fared better in terms of quality of expenditure. The quality of expenditure can be gauged by capital outlay to total expenditure (COTE). The COTE stood at 12.2% in fiscal 2025 provisional numbers and has hit a three-year high (it was 12.6% in fiscal 2022), Mr. Jasrai said. The metric for fiscal 2025 provisional is also better than the average of 11.4% during fiscal 2018-fiscal 2024.
For fiscal 2026, the State government has estimated capital expenditure of ₹57,231 crore, which is a growth of 22.38% from the revised estimates for fiscal 2025.
The total capital outlay of the State, including Net Loans and Advances, is estimated at ₹65,328 crore in the Budget Estimates 2025-26. 'Capex remains a sustained focus for the government, which is quite favourable for the continuing the economic momentum in the state. The State has been actively focusing on fiscal consolidation as evident even in the FY26 budget,' Mr. Jasrai said.
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Dev said there are many domestic tailwinds such as low inflation, rate cuts, and cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut by the RBI, expected good monsoon, measures in the last Budget like rising capital expenditure, tax reduction, etc. 'These tailwinds may raise both rural and urban demand by raising both investment, consumption and some push to exports,' he said, adding that on the supply side, agriculture and services are doing well and the growth of manufacturing will improve over the years. Responding to a question on inflation, Dev said with a good monsoon, food inflation should be under control this year. 'Projections show continued moderation in the prices of many commodities, including crude oil. 'Of course, we have to be watchful about the geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-related tensions, which can raise commodity prices,' he said. CPI headline inflation was 2.10 per cent in June 2025 and it is the lowest year-on-year inflation after January 2019. 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He pointed out that it may be noted that non-resident deposits and external commercial borrowings (ECBs) recorded higher net inflows in FY 25 compared to FY24. 'Higher gross FDI also indicates that India continues to remain an attractive investment destination,' Dev said. Referring to the government's push for public capital expenditure, Dev said increasing government capex will also have impact on private sector investment as studies have shown that creation of national highways and rural roads have increased businesses in rural and urban areas. 'In other words, government capex will have multiplier effects. There are some green shoots on private capex,' he asserted. Pointing out that many state governments are also attracting domestic and foreign private investment, he said the corporate sector and banks are earning more profits now and their balance sheets are in good shape. 'So, there is no problem of capital availability. 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India's medium-term growth prospects seem to be robust with sound fiscal management," he said. Dev also emphasised that rising government capital expenditure will have positive impact on growth with a healthy expansion in private consumption. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank have slashed India's growth projections for 2025-26 to 6.2 per cent and 6.3 per cent, respectively, citing uncertain global environment and high trade tensions. The Indian economy is estimated to have grown at 6.5 per cent in the previous fiscal year. As per the Reserve Bank of India's projections, the country's economy will expand at the same rate in the current fiscal year as well. Dev said there are many domestic tailwinds such as low inflation, rate cuts, and cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut by the RBI, expected good monsoon, measures in the last Budget like rising capital expenditure, tax reduction, etc. "These tailwinds may raise both rural and urban demand by raising both investment, consumption and some push to exports," he said, adding that on the supply side, agriculture and services are doing well and the growth of manufacturing will improve over the years. Responding to a question on inflation, Dev said with a good monsoon, food inflation should be under control this year. "Projections show continued moderation in the prices of many commodities, including crude oil. "Of course, we have to be watchful about the geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-related tensions, which can raise commodity prices," he said. CPI headline inflation was 2.10 per cent in June 2025 and it is the lowest year-on-year inflation after January 2019. 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Dev said there are many domestic tailwinds such as low inflation, rate cuts, and cash reserve ratio (CRR) cut by the RBI , expected good monsoon, measures in the last Budget like rising capital expenditure, tax reduction, etc. "These tailwinds may raise both rural and urban demand by raising both investment, consumption and some push to exports," he said, adding that on the supply side, agriculture and services are doing well and the growth of manufacturing will improve over the years. Responding to a question on inflation, Dev said with a good monsoon, food inflation should be under control this year. "Projections show continued moderation in the prices of many commodities, including crude oil. "Of course, we have to be watchful about the geopolitical uncertainties and tariff-related tensions, which can raise commodity prices," he said. CPI headline inflation was 2.10 per cent in June 2025 and it is the lowest year-on-year inflation after January 2019. Crude oil prices are currently under control. Food inflation in June 2025 was -1.06 per cent. Assuming a normal monsoon, RBI projected inflation at 3.7 per cent for FY26. Responding to a question on surge in net outward foreign direct investment (FDI), Dev pointed out that the World Investment report 2025 shows that global FDI inflows grew a marginal 3.7 per cent in gross FDI to USD 1,509 billion in 2024. "This is much lower than the global FDI inflows that had peaked nine years ago at USD 2,219 billion in 2015," he said. In other words, Dev said global FDI itself is growing slowly. Noting that India's FDI inflows have increased 14 per cent in FY25 -- although there was a moderation in net FDI -- he said it is known that there was net outward FDI and a rise in repatriation. "Exits and repatriation are part of the process and indicates a sign of a mature market. Unless you enable exit, the country can't attract investment," the EAC-PM chairman said. He pointed out that it may be noted that non-resident deposits and external commercial borrowings (ECBs) recorded higher net inflows in FY 25 compared to FY24. "Higher gross FDI also indicates that India continues to remain an attractive investment destination," Dev said. Referring to the government's push for public capital expenditure, Dev said increasing government capex will also have impact on private sector investment as studies have shown that creation of national highways and rural roads have increased businesses in rural and urban areas. "In other words, government capex will have multiplier effects. There are some green shoots on private capex," he asserted. Pointing out that many state governments are also attracting domestic and foreign private investment, he said the corporate sector and banks are earning more profits now and their balance sheets are in good shape. "So, there is no problem of capital availability. Industry is positive about India's growth story," Dev said. While the corporate sector is probably holding investment in capacity expansion due to global uncertainties and overcapacity in some countries like China, increase in rural and urban demand will facilitate more private investment, he said. "Many firms turned debt free and doubled their cash on the books. India Inc has to make new investments instead of keeping the cash," the EAC-PM said. Citing Economic Survey 2024-25, which had argued for deregulation and easing "compliance burden", he said there is a need for more progress on "ease of doing business" at the state level. "Hopefully, private capex will be more once the domestic demand increases further and global uncertainties are reduced," Dev said, adding that once the tariff concerns are over, there will be more opportunity for Indian industry to invest.