Submarines are the sea-going medicine for China. But it has to be done right

Telegraph

09-05-2025

The Philippines will acquire submarines for the first time, significantly boosting the combat potential of its small but quickly growing fleet. 'It's a dream for us to get at least two submarines,' General Romeo Brawner, chief of staff of the Philippine armed forces, has said.
That dream could become an expensive nightmare, however. While uniquely potent in a major war, submarines are also very expensive to build, support and deploy – and require skilled sailors, aggressive commanders and the right doctrine in order to be effective.
The sub acquisition – part of a sweeping, multi-decade military modernisation program costing $35 billion – comes at a time of increasing tensions between Manila and Beijing. Chinese forces have escalated their 'grey zone' operations in the disputed waters of the China Seas: transforming islands into military outposts, raiding valuable fisheries and periodically blockading the resupply of a Philippine garrison aboard a fragile sea base on the Second Thomas Shoal.
Submarines wouldn't help the Philippine navy counter the grey zone aggression. But they could help deter, or defeat, a full-scale Chinese attack in the region. It's not for no reason that the US and Japanese navies prioritise submarines in their contingency planning for a possible war with China.
When the Center for Strategic and International Studies gamed out a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, and a US-led intervention on Taiwan's behalf, the think tank concluded that US and allied anti-ship missiles and submarines alone could defeat the invasion.
With submarines, the Philippines could meaningfully contribute to a war with China. Emphasis on could. Recall that, in the early days of Imperial Japan's attack on the Philippines in December 1941, the US Navy had 29 subs in Philippine waters – but only seven of them made any effort to oppose the Japanese fleet.
A post-war report blamed effective Japanese sonar, faulty American torpedoes, overly cautious sub skippers and the tendency of fleet commanders to deploy subs in shallow waters instead of the deeper waters their designs favoured.
To avoid a tragic and potentially war-losing repeat of the Americans' 1941 undersea debacle, the Philippine navy must buy the right subs, rigorously train their crews, assign only the best officers to command the boats and write doctrine that directs the subs into the right waters at the right time.
It's easier said than done, and it requires sustained political will. 'Manila must recognise that any potential submarine acquisition by The Philippines should be guided by the need to deter or win future wars, and that anything else would be a blunder,' writes Joshua Bernard Espeña, a fellow at the Manila-based International Development and Security Cooperation.
Brawner for one seems to appreciate the urgency. 'We are an archipelago,' he said. 'So we have to have this type of capability, because it's really difficult to defend that entire archipelago without submarines.'
The first step is to select a sub type. French, South Korean and Spanish shipbuilders are offering designs. Spanish firm Navantia has made an interesting pitch with its S-80 – a 3,000-ton diesel-electric sub with six torpedo tubes and air-independent propulsion allowing for long underwater patrols. In addition to torpedoes, the type can fire Harpoon anti-ship missiles.
But South Korean builder Hanwha Ocean may have the edge with its 3,800-ton KSS-III, a diesel-electric sub that also has six torpedo tubes, air-independent propulsion and the ability to launch anti-ship missiles.
The Philippine military is already buying South Korean fighter jets, corvettes and frigates – and seems to be pleased with them. Moreover, South Korean weapons tend to be cheaper than American and European models, and without sacrificing quality.
The truth is, either manufacturer will do a decent job. The challenge for the Philippines will be building an effective submarine arm from the ground up. If it can accomplish this, the archipelagic nation will be significantly more able to face the threat from China.