Australia, NZ dollars start big central bank week on back foot as tariff uncertainty mounts
The Aussie fell 0.5% on Monday to $0.6522, the lowest level in a week. It ended last week just 0.3% higher, with resistance heavy at an eight-month top of $0.6590.
The kiwi dollar eased 0.4% at $0.6025, the lowest in almost two weeks. It finished last week just 0.1% higher, with stiff resistance at a nine-month peak of $0.6120.
President Donald Trump said the U.S. will start delivering tariff letters to other countries starting at 12:00 p.m. ET (1600 GMT) on Monday. Earlier, he said the higher rates would now take effect on August 1 rather than July 9.
"If we do get the letters this week, then August 1 is the deadline as opposed to the midnight on the day that (they) send them out. That ostensibly leaves some wiggle room for negotiations... but what it is going to do is wreck markets with uncertainty," said Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at the National Australia Bank.
Indeed, shares fell across Asia, with Wall Street futures down about 0.5%. The two Antipodeans are often sold as proxies for risk assets.
Down Under, it is a big week for central banks, with both Australia and New Zealand set to announce their latest policy decisions. Markets have almost fully priced in a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday with a 95% probability.
Analysts at ING said as RBA turns more dovish, it could hinder gains in the Australian dollar versus other major currencies, although against the greenback, it remains a U.S. tariff story.
"We expect AUD to lag behind NZD and potentially other high-beta currencies where there is less room for front-end rates to fall, such as SEK (the Swedish krona)," they said in a note to clients.
Across the Tasman Sea, the RBNZ will meet on Wednesday and is most likely to keep the cash rate steady at 3.25%. Swaps imply a probability of 81% for no move. (Reporting by Stella Qiu; Editing by Jamie Freed)
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Mint
34 minutes ago
- Mint
Trump Tariffs Live: US President targets 5 more countries with 25–40% tariff warnings after Japan, South Korea
US President Donald Trump on Monday (July 7) sent formal letters to a number of countries, including Japan and South Korea, announcing new tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on imports, effective August 1. The move marks a renewed push to force new trade deals before an earlier-imposed July 9 deadline. The letters cited 'significant trade deficits' and warned of penalties for any retaliatory tariff hikes, stating such moves would be matched 'on top of the 25%' rate. However, the letters also left room for negotiation, with Trump saying the US would 'perhaps consider an adjustment' if trade barriers are removed. Starting August 1, 2025, the US will impose a 30% tariff on all products imported from Bosnia and Herzegovina. The US cites a significant trade deficit and a "far from reciprocal" trade relationship as justification for the move. The letter urges Bosnia and Herzegovina to pursue more balanced and fair trade with the US. Companies from Bosnia that choose to manufacture goods within the U.S. will be exempt from the tariff and receive fast-tracked approvals. If Bosnia increases its tariffs in response, the same percentage increase will be added to the 30% US tariff. Goods rerouted through other countries to evade higher tariffs will still be taxed at the elevated rate. Bosnia is encouraged to participate more directly in the US economy, which Trump describes as the 'Number One Market in the World.' The US will impose a 35% tariff on all Bangladeshi imports, starting August 1, 2025. Trump cited a longstanding and significant trade deficit and non-reciprocal trade practices by Bangladesh, including tariff and non-tariff barriers. The US seeks a more balanced and fair trading relationship, stating current terms are 'far from reciprocal.' Trump invites Bangladeshi firms to manufacture in the US, promising quick, professional approvals for such investments — in 'a matter of weeks.' If Bangladesh retaliates by raising its own tariffs, 'whatever number you choose… will be added onto the 35%'. Goods rerouted through other countries to avoid the tariff will be charged the higher rate. The United States will impose a 35% tariff on all Serbian imports starting August 1, 2025. These tariffs are separate from sector-specific tariffs. Trump cites a 'significant and persistent trade deficit' with Serbia. The trade relationship is described as 'far from reciprocal.' Serbian companies can avoid tariffs by building or manufacturing within the United States. The US promises to process such business approvals quickly and routinely, within a matter of weeks. If Serbia increases its own tariffs in response, the US will add that increase on top of the 35% tariff. Goods transshipped through other countries to avoid the tariff will be subject to the higher tariff. The United States will impose a 36% tariff on all Cambodian exports starting August 1, 2025. Trump cites a persistent trade deficit and non-reciprocal trade relationship caused by Cambodia's tariff and non-tariff barriers. The 36% tariff applies separately from sector-specific tariffs and covers all Cambodian goods entering the US. Products transshipped through third countries to avoid tariffs will still be subject to the higher applicable tariff. Cambodian firms that set up manufacturing in the US will face no tariffs, and the US will fast-track approvals for such ventures. If Cambodia raises its tariffs in response, the US will add that increase to the 36% base rate. A 36% tariff will be imposed on all Thai goods entering the United States starting August 1, 2025. Trump cites a 'significant trade deficit' and 'non-reciprocal' trade policies as the basis for the new tariffs. The tariffs are separate from all sectoral tariffs and apply to all Thai exports. Goods transshipped to avoid duties will be charged the highest applicable tariff. The tariffs are separate from all sectoral tariffs and apply to all Thai exports. Goods transshipped to avoid duties will be charged the highest applicable tariff. Thai companies that build or manufacture products in the US will face no tariffs, with fast-track approvals promised. If Thailand raises its own tariffs in response, the US will add the same increase on top of the 36% base tariff. The United States will impose a 32% tariff on all Indonesian products entering the country. These tariffs will take effect on August 1, 2025. This tariff is independent of any sector-specific duties already in place. Trump cited a 'significant trade deficit' with Indonesia as the reason for the new tariffs. He said the US–Indonesia trade relationship has been 'far from Reciprocal.' Trump announced a 25% tariff on all Tunisian products entering the United States. The tariffs are set to take effect on August 1, 2025. This rate is separate from all sectoral tariffs. Trump blamed Tunisia's "Tariff and Non-Tariff Policies and Trade Barriers" for persistent trade deficits. He described the US–Tunisia trading relationship as "far from reciprocal." The U.S. trade deficit with Tunisia was cited as a threat to U.S. economic and national security. Trump offered Tunisia a chance to avoid tariffs if Tunisian firms build or manufacture products in the US. He said US authorities would fast-track approvals for such operations. If Tunisia imposes retaliatory tariffs, the US would add that amount to the 25% base tariff. Goods transshipped to evade tariffs will be subject to the higher rate. If Tunisia opens its markets and removes trade barriers, the US may 'consider an adjustment' to the tariff rate. US President Donald Trump escalated his global trade offensive on Monday (July 7), issuing fresh tariff warning letters to five additional countries — South Africa, Malaysia, Myanmar, Laos, and Kazakhstan — after already targeting Japan and South Korea. The letters threaten new import duties ranging from 25% to 40% starting August 1, in a sweeping move to rebalance what he calls 'decades of unfair trade'. The letters — nearly identical in tone and content — warned of tariffs ranging from 25% to 40% on all goods exported from these countries to the United States. Trump cited long-standing trade deficits and 'non-reciprocal' relationships as justification. Each letter outlined the specific tariff rate for the respective country: Trump stated that the US had 'agreed to continue working' with each nation despite its 'significant Trade Deficit' with the United States but stressed that 'our relationship has been, unfortunately, far from Reciprocal.' Trump emphasised that the proposed tariffs are separate from all sector-specific tariffs and could increase if the targeted nations retaliated. He warned that 'goods transshipped to evade a higher Tariff will be subject to that higher Tariff.' In each case, he offered a path to avoid the duties: if companies from the targeted countries choose to manufacture goods within the US, 'there will be no Tariff,' and approvals for such moves would be 'quickly, professionally, and routinely' granted. Echoing language used in previous trade spats, Trump justified the new tariffs not just on economic grounds, but as a matter of national security. 'This Deficit is a major threat to our Economy and, indeed, our National Security!' the letters declare. The White House had previously postponed tariffs set to take effect on July 9, opting instead for this formal notification phase ahead of the new August 1 implementation date. In a somewhat conciliatory tone, Trump left open the possibility of modifying the tariff rates: 'If you wish to open your heretofore closed Trading Markets to the United States... we will, perhaps, consider an adjustment to this letter.' He added that tariff levels 'may be modified, upward or downward, depending on our relationship with your Country.'
The Hindu
an hour ago
- The Hindu
Lula tells Trump that world does not want 'emperor' after U.S. threatens BRICS tariff
Developing nations at the BRICS summit on Monday (July 7, 2025) brushed away an accusation from President Donald Trump that they are "anti-American," with Brazil's President saying the world does not need an emperor after the U.S. leader threatened extra tariffs on the bloc. Trump's threat on Sunday (July 6, 2025) night came as the U.S. government prepared to finalize dozens of trade deals with a range of countries before his July 9 deadline for the imposition of significant "retaliatory tariffs." The Trump administration does not intend to immediately impose an additional 10% tariff against BRICS nations, as threatened, but will proceed if individual countries take policies his administration deems "anti-American," according to a source familiar with the matter. Lula on Trump tariff At the end of the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro, Mr. Lula was defiant when asked by journalists about Trump's tariff threat: "The world has changed. We don't want an emperor." "This is a set of countries that wants to find another way of organizing the world from the economic perspective," he said of the bloc. "I think that's why the BRICS are making people uncomfortable." In February, Mr. Trump warned the BRICS would face "100% tariffs" if they tried to undermine the role of the U.S. dollar in global trade. Brazil's BRICS presidency had already backed off efforts to advance a common currency for the group that some members proposed last year. But Mr. Lula repeated on Monday (July 7, 2025) his view that global trade needs alternatives to the U.S. dollar. "The world needs to find a way that our trade relations don't have to pass through the dollar," Mr. Lula told journalists at the end of the BRICS summit in Rio de Janeiro. "Obviously, we have to be responsible about doing that carefully. Our central banks have to discuss it with central banks from other countries," he added. "That's something that happens gradually until it's consolidated." Other BRICS members also pushed back against Trump's threats more subtly. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa told reporters that the group does not seek to compete with any other power and expressed confidence in reaching a trade deal with the U.S. "Tariffs should not be used as a tool for coercion and pressuring," Mao Ning, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson said in Beijing. The BRICS advocates for "win-win cooperation," she added, and "does not target any country." A Kremlin spokesperson said Russia's cooperation with the BRICS was based on a "common world view" and "will never be directed against third countries." India did not immediately provide an official response to Mr. Trump. Many BRICS members and many of the group's partner nations are highly dependent on trade with the United States. New member Indonesia's senior economic minister, Airlangga Hartarto, who is in Brazil for the BRICS summit, is scheduled to go to the U.S. on Monday (July 7, 2025) to oversee tariff talks, an official told Reuters. Malaysia, which was attending as a partner country and was slapped with 24% tariffs that were later suspended, said that it maintains independent economic policies and is not focused on ideological alignment.
Indian Express
an hour ago
- Indian Express
As Trump warns BRICS, China, Russia say group doesn't target anyone
As President Donald Trump warned that the United States would impose an additional 10 per cent tariff on any country which aligns itself with the 'anti-American policies of BRICS', at least three members of the grouping — China, Russia and South Africa — responded sharply on Monday. There was no response from New Delhi on Trump's remarks. Trump's comments came after the BRICS declaration on Sunday, in an oblique reference to the US, raised 'serious concerns' about the rise in tariffs, which, it said, were 'inconsistent with WTO (World Trade Organisation) rules' and 'threaten to reduce global trade, disrupt global supply chains and introduce uncertainty.' BRICS leaders, including Prime Minister Narendra Modi, are in Brazil's Rio de Janeiro for a two-day summit on July 6-7. Hours later, in a post on Truth Social, Trump said: 'Any country aligning themselves with the Anti-American policies of BRICS, will be charged an additional 10% tariff. There will be no exceptions to this policy'. He did not clarify or expand on the 'Anti-American policies' reference in his post. BRICS, originally comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, expanded in 2024 to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates, with Indonesia joining in 2025. China said BRICS is not a bloc for confrontation and does not target any third country. 'BRICS is an important platform for cooperation among emerging markets and developing countries,' Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told a media briefing in Beijing. 'It advocates openness, inclusiveness and win-win cooperation. It is not a bloc for confrontation. Nor does it target any country,' Mao said. Referring to Trump's tariff hike threats, she said China has made its position clear. 'Trade war and tariff war have no winners,' she said. Russia said the BRICS group does not seek to undermine other countries. 'We have indeed seen such statements by President Trump, but it is very important to note here that the uniqueness of a group like BRICS is that it is a group of countries that share common approaches and a common world view on how to cooperate, based on their own interests,' Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov. 'And this cooperation within BRICS has never been, and will never be, directed against any third countries,' Peskov said. South Africa's foreign ministry spokesperson said the BRICS group should be seen as a push for 'reformed multilateralism, nothing more'. 'BRICS objectives are primarily about creating a more balanced and inclusive global order that better reflects the economic and political realities of the 21st century,' South African foreign ministry spokesperson Chrispin Phiri told Reuters. In his address at the summit before Trump's comments, Modi said: 'Our confidence in the diversity and multipolarity of the BRICS group is our greatest strength. Today, as the world order faces pressures from all sides, and the world is going through many challenges and uncertainties, the increasing relevance and influence of BRICS is natural. We should together consider how BRICS can become a guide for the multipolar world in the times to come.' Brazil's President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who hosted the summit, also criticised NATO's decision to hike military spending by 5 per cent of GDP annually by 2035. Shubhajit Roy, Diplomatic Editor at The Indian Express, has been a journalist for more than 25 years now. Roy joined The Indian Express in October 2003 and has been reporting on foreign affairs for more than 17 years now. Based in Delhi, he has also led the National government and political bureau at The Indian Express in Delhi — a team of reporters who cover the national government and politics for the newspaper. He has got the Ramnath Goenka Journalism award for Excellence in Journalism '2016. He got this award for his coverage of the Holey Bakery attack in Dhaka and its aftermath. He also got the IIMCAA Award for the Journalist of the Year, 2022, (Jury's special mention) for his coverage of the fall of Kabul in August 2021 — he was one of the few Indian journalists in Kabul and the only mainstream newspaper to have covered the Taliban's capture of power in mid-August, 2021. ... Read More
