Mobius Sees Promise in Japan, India, Taiwan Markets

Bloomberg

20 hours ago

00:00
Still keeping 95% in cash. Now it's about 50% in cash. Why is that, Mark? I mean, basically, I think the markets have been way too high for bargains to be found. I mean, it's all about valuations. If you look at the valuations of most of the companies, their very high expectations are high. Of course, you know, often you get situations when people are very cautious. That's the time when the market will go up and it's possible that will happen. But I would say cash is king right now and when there's a correction will be in buying aggressively. But we're looking at a dollar that is weakening. And with expectations of two cuts this year, the dollar is headed even lower. I'm just wondering why it still makes sense to hold cash at this point. But don't forget, with cash, you can get 4 to 5% interest. So this is very, very nice interest and safe interest in U.S. Treasuries. So the the benefit of holding cash is very good at this stage of the game. Now, of course, there are some opportunities in the market and we've taken them. As I said, we're about 50% in cash now at 50% in stocks. And as you know, emerging markets in particular are beginning to look brighter. In fact, in the last year or so, they've kept pace with the US market, which is good news. And I expect further strength ahead once these tariff negotiations are completed, which will probably be happening in the next four or five months. Mark, you talked about deploying some of that cache. Where have they been deployed? Believe it or not, here in Japan, I'm now in Osaka, Japan, and in Japan there are great opportunities. Companies that are having a very good earnings, very low price earnings ratios, good growth. And of course, you know, the Bank of Japan, with the policy rate now is about half a percent and it's expected to rise, but not by very much. Inflation is about a 2.7%. So it's not a big problem here in Japan in terms of rates. So Japan is a good opportunity. The other opportunity, I would say is in India, as you know, I've been a big bull on India for quite some time. And Taiwan, those are the three areas which I think holds a lot of promise. And also these are the three markets which have been slapped with pretty high tariffs by the Trump administration. India, 25%. Very unexpected. Might that shape how you look at the Indian market and what the opportunities are there? Well, you know, the great thing about the Indian market is it's a self-contained market. As you know. It's one of the most trade restrictive markets in the world. But if you look at not only tariffs, but non-tariff barriers are huge in India. So it's very self-sufficient in many, many ways. So they really don't need a lot of exports or imports. So that's one benefit of being in India. The tariff situation is not going to hit them very badly and they will probably hold out for a better deal with the U.S. at the end of the day. How would you deploy your resources in India? What's looking attractive? Bearing in mind that Modi is now calling for his citizens to buy India while consumer products. Consumer companies, of course. Will be very good. There are a number of retail listings that look attractive. But look, you could look at any sector. You can look at airlines. As you know, the airlines in India have been growing at a very fast pace. But more importantly, in the telecoms area, there are great telecoms companies. Bharti Airtel comes to mind. These are companies that are doing very, very well in the Indian market and will continue to do so. The thing is, Mark, despite the catalyst that you mentioned earlier, the Indian market has struggled the last few months. What would it take for it to have a turnaround? Well, I think, first of all, you have to look at the Reserve Bank of India. RBI has cut rates from 6 to 5.5 and inflation is now below 4%. So there's good opportunity for the RBI to cut even further, which would be bullish for the market. That's number one. Number two, these battles with the US on tariffs, of course, is having an impact, a psychological impact. But this will be short lived in my view. So the opportunities are still there. And if markets in India, some prices have come down, it's probably a good opportunity to buy. We have seen a flood of primary issues. I'm just wondering whether you think that may weigh on India's secondary markets. Of course, that situation of a lot of IPOs, a lot of new companies coming to the market draws money. And therefore, the other part of the market, at least part of the market suffers as a result. So, yes, I think this will continue for a while, but it's not going to go on forever. And when that ends, then, of course, the entire market will benefit. But you must remember, IPOs are good for the market because it gives the investor lots of more choices, which is good overall. Mark. Overall, the market's pretty concerned about the tariffs that we've seen imposed by Trump and some have seen very hefty tariff levels. I'm just wondering on balance. How are you assessing the impact of those tariffs on market sentiment? Of course, the sentiment has been very bad. As you know, tariffs have scared a lot of people. A lot of people think that tariffs will result in higher inflation. Tariffs will result in poor earnings for some companies that depend on imports and exports. So there's no question that tariffs have been the number one item that drags down the market. And we're looking now at between, what, 15% to 41% tariffs. But negotiations continue. And another interesting point to remember is that a lot of this is in the courts in the US. Federal courts in the US may invalidate a lot of the tariffs that the Trump administration has instituted. So this is another sort of uncertainty that we're looking at on the market. But nevertheless, the taco mentality is now gone away. People are beginning to see that Trump will not back away in many of these areas. So much uncertainty remains. It hasn't been cleared, even though now we have the numbers attached to to the tariff threat. Yeah, of course. You know, you have to look at this long term of all of this talk about tariffs. Up down side was what they're going to do from day to day. That's a lot of noise. The ultimate thing that we've got to take home is that things have changed dramatically in the trade and environment globally. Not only the US people are looking at this much more realistically. There's going to be a lot of thinking about how to make things fairer for all countries involved. So I think at the end of the day it will be a better world that'll emerge in the next six or seven months where trade negotiations will have completed and will have a much more fair trade situation globally. Now, of course, the big, big, big problem, of course, is China. Is China willing to reform and do away with all the non-tariff barriers. By the way, that is the big issue. You know, the tariff rate is one thing, but the non tariff barriers in some of these countries could fill a book. These are the things that have to be negotiated. And I believe that if the negotiations with the US and China are successful, a lot of the non-tariff barriers will disappear and that will be great not only for the US but other countries trading with China. So when it comes to China, Mark, is it fair to say that you should adopt a wait and see approach until there's greater clarity in terms of negotiations between the two sides? Yes, I think it's a good idea to wait, maybe nibble a little bit. You know, there are a few people that are recommending companies in China, but I would say that there's no rush. Yes, the China market has done well recently, but I think there's plenty of time to get in once we see more clarity. Where do you nibble, Mark? Would that be maybe the eye segment of the market? Yeah, that's one area. And tech generally, generally speaking, that would be a good, good area. You know, some of the names that you see in China are very, very interesting in terms of technology. So this is where we would want to look. Would you be buying Indian tech, for that matter, Marc? Some say that perhaps when you take a look at the recent earnings, the numbers weren't great. Maybe that is a sign that India's tech sector may be leaning in terms of its attractiveness. Yeah, I think it is a lot of emphasis on Indian tech, but I think what you have to do is look at India as a whole, in other words, as a consumer market, as I mentioned, consumer stocks and look good. Of course, you know, every stock that we look at, we try to find those that are using technology to improve their behavior and improve their performance. And there are many of those. So when you look at retail, whether you're looking at manufacturing, whether you're looking at telecoms, you have to focus on what kind of technology they're using and how are they using technology to improve their productivity and to improve their earnings growth. And there are many, many of those in India, and of course, many of the new markets in India will be markets that relate to technology. What's the biggest risk in investing in these tech names, Mark? Because we know that it's a big focus. And the Max seven, we've seen those stocks fluctuating in a big way and that will impact the rest of the tech plays in the rest of the world. Now, of course, the big risk is competition. More and more companies are piling into A.I. and improving their A.I. capabilities. So you have to keep an eye on what companies are going to be overtaking others. So this will be the big risk going forward. But you must remember that some of the bigger names, some of the names that are ahead of the game will continue to be ahead of the game. And those are the companies you want to focus on. We know that you're an emerging markets guru and you love India. I'm just wondering, when you take a look at the macro level, do you see Asian emerging markets outpacing perhaps those, you know, rivals in Europe, for instance? This is going to happen. As I said, generally speaking, these trade negotiations will end probably in the next six months or so, and that time will see a lot more clarity. So markets like Korea, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia will all continue to look very, very interesting with lots of innovation coming in play. So I think at the end of the day, these countries will continue to do well. And if the Chinese come to the table in terms of much better tariff structures, eliminating a lot of the non-tariff barriers, then these countries would look very, very good because of their major trading partner. Of course, has been China will continue to be China. Some of these markets have had a stellar run already. The Cosby case in point. Up 35% year to date. How much more upside and what could be the catalyst here? Well, it is true if some of these people have begun to realize that the bad news doesn't go on forever and there's a great opportunity again now. But I think that's just the beginning. At the end of the day, it's only after we see what the rates, tariff rates are going to be and what trade with the US is look like that we'll get a clearer picture. But yes, a number of these markets have moved up. You know, one of the reasons why is that in a case like Taiwan, for example, everybody knows that the technology sector is going to continue to do very, very well. And it doesn't make any difference what the tariff rates are with the U.S. and they will be able to export. And the US depends on Taiwan for a lot of the technology. So they're not going to kill the goose that lays the golden egg. So again, I think some of these markets will see recovery. Mark, even as we talk about the potential of Asia and emerging Asia in particular, we've seen a stellar run for the S & P still hovering at record highs. It does seem like the story of U.S. exceptionalism is persisting and traders are still preferring the US market to to other parts of the world. Yeah, I mean, that's probably the most interesting thing that's happened in the last, well, let's say roughly ten years. And that is a lot of number one, a lot of emerging market stocks have move to the US market, have listed in New York and Nasdaq in New York Stock Exchange. And that tech, that's number one. Number two, a greater proportion of the earnings of U.S. based companies are coming from emerging countries. Of course, internationally, they've been trading internationally for a long time. But a greater and greater proportion are coming from emerging market countries because those emerging market countries have been growing at double the rate of the developed countries. The other thing that's happening is that the percent of their supplies have become dependent upon emerging countries. Now, of course, Trump would like to eliminate that supply chain and bring it back to the U.S., but I don't see that as possible. This will not happen. For example, very unlikely that the U.S. will become a major producer of plush toys, but that's probably not going to happen. So a lot of the supply chain which we see now will still be in existence. And these countries, particularly in Asia, will continue to do well in trade, not only with the U.S., but with Europe as well. Mark, if you take a longer term perspective in this case 3 to 5 years, what do you see as a big trend that investors should be looking at and investing into? I think the number one big trend is a move by more and more countries towards some free market environment. We now see a separation in the world between the US and countries like the US who have a free market environment. Japan, Canada, Mexico to some extent a Europe, etc.. And countries like China, India, China, Russia that are not in that camp. India, of course, is in the free market camp. And I've got to mention India is very important in that regard. So I see a growing diversification between these two groups of countries. Now, the degree to which these changes, in other words, the degree to which China becomes a free and open market will have an incredible impact globally because China is a big, huge country, second largest economy in the world, according to some economists. But at the end of the day, if they are going to convert from a closed economy, which they are now to an open economy, this will have an incredible impact globally. So I think that's what we have to look at. Mark, before we let you go, we know that you're launching your latest fund, but that has yet to happen. Is there any indication at all when we can expect that to happen? Probably by the end of the year. We've already started. We have some investors, friends and family mainly, but we don't want to have a full scale launch until we're able to get into some of these markets. As you know, negotiating with each of the countries in which we want to invest takes quite a while. And hopefully by the end of the year, we'll be able to get into these countries and be able to invest and then we'll be ready to go whose go and really move very quickly. So November, perhaps? Yeah, probably November. And maybe celebrate Christmas.