Russian Banks Have Discussed Seeking Bailouts Within Next Year
At least three lenders identified as systemically important by the Bank of Russia have considered the possibility that they may need to be recapitalized in the next 12 months, according to current and former officials and documents reviewed by Bloomberg News.
The banks have discussed internally how they would raise the prospect of a bailout with the central bank should that become necessary. The scenario arises because their assessment of the quality of their loan books is far worse than what official data show, according to the people and documents.
The people, granted anonymity to disclose information that isn't public, said any bailout request was dependent on a continued rise in the volume of bad loans over the next year. Still, they said the discussions were becoming more urgent throughout the banking industry.
On paper the banking system is in relatively good health, with profits robust even amid a rise in so-called non-performing loans to companies and households with the central bank's key interest rate at a near-record high 20%. Officially, levels of bad debt remain well below those recorded in past financial crunches and that were defused by the Russian authorities.
However, the central bank itself has advised lenders to focus on restructuring credit instead of recognizing the full extent of souring loans.
The Bank of Russia didn't respond to an emailed request for comment.
Central bank Governor Elvira Nabiullina downplayed the risk of a systemic crisis at a financial forum in St. Petersburg on July 2, saying Russia's banking system was 'well capitalized' and had capital reserves of 8 trillion rubles . 'As the body that supervises banks, I say with full responsibility that these concerns are absolutely unfounded,' she said.
The central bank has said it could release what's known as a macroprudential capital buffer, allowing banks to absorb losses and operate with temporarily lower capital ratios. That step may ease some pressure on the system, unless the volume of losses were to go beyond what the buffer was designed to absorb.
Officially, the share of bad-quality loans to corporate borrowers stood at 4% as of April 1, while the proportion of unsecured consumer debt in arrears of 90 days or more was at 10.5%.
Still, top bankers have begun to raise the alarm about the prospects for the next year.
'It is already clear that it will not be easy,' Herman Gref, chief executive officer of state-owned Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, said of the prospects for the next year at the annual shareholders meeting last month, because loan portfolio quality is deteriorating with companies increasingly needing to restructure their debts. 'I hope, as always, we will be able to find joint plans to get through these difficult times,' he added.
At VTB, Russia's second-largest lender, the share of non-performing loans from individuals in its retail portfolio reached 5% in May, amounting to 377 billion rubles, the bank's First Deputy Chairman Dmitriy Pianov said, Vedomosti newspaper reported July 1.
That indicator has risen by 1.2 percentage points since the beginning of the year. The share of bad loans could hit 6%-7% by 2026, Pianov said, though he also noted this was below the peak of 8%-10% seen in 2014-16.
Clients are anxious about high interest rates, and the share of bad loans is growing though banks are restructuring them for now and have plenty of reserves, according to top managers at two systemically-important Russian lenders, asking not to be identified discussing internal matters.
While there's little sign so far of a crisis, which could anyway be resolved by injections of funds, a lot of data has been classified and the full picture may not be visible, one of the people said.
Russia has used bailouts and other mechanisms to recapitalize failing banks in the past. In 2017, the central bank spent at least 1 trillion rubles to rescue three large private banks, Otkritie, Promsvyazbank and B&N Bank, a move it said was necessary to save the financial system.
The central bank established the Banking Sector Consolidation Fund in 2017 to inject capital into lenders buckling under pressure from bad loans and to rehabilitate them.
This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
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Elon Musk ordered shutdown of Starlink satellite service in Sept 2022 as Ukraine retook territory from Russia
Kyiv: During a pivotal push by Ukraine to retake territory from Russia in late September 2022, Elon Musk gave an order that disrupted the counteroffensive and dented Kyiv's trust in Starlink, the satellite internet service the billionaire provided early in the war to help Ukraine's military maintain battlefield connectivity. According to three people familiar with the command, Musk told a senior engineer at the California offices of SpaceX, the Musk venture that controls Starlink, to cut coverage in areas including Kherson, a strategic region north of the Black Sea that Ukraine was trying to reclaim. 'We have to do this,' Michael Nicolls, the Starlink engineer, told colleagues upon receiving the order, one of these people said. Staffers complied, the three people told Reuters, deactivating at least a hundred Starlink terminals, their hexagon-shaped cells going dark on an internal map of the company's coverage. The move also affected other areas seized by Russia, including some of Donetsk province further east. Upon Musk's order, Ukrainian troops suddenly faced a communications blackout, according to a Ukrainian military official, an advisor to the armed forces, and two others who experienced Starlink failure near the front lines. Soldiers panicked, drones surveilling Russian forces went dark, and long-range artillery units, reliant on Starlink to aim their fire, struggled to hit targets. As a result, the Ukrainian military official and the military advisor said, troops failed to surround a Russian position in the town of Beryslav, east of Kherson, the administrative center of the region of the same name. 'The encirclement stalled entirely,' said the military official in an interview. 'It failed.' Ultimately, Ukraine's counteroffensive succeeded in reclaiming Beryslav, the city of Kherson and some additional territory Russia had occupied. But Musk's order, which hasn't previously been reported, is the first known instance of the billionaire actively shutting off Starlink coverage over a battlefield during the conflict. The decision shocked some Starlink employees and effectively reshaped the front line of the fighting, enabling Musk to take 'the outcome of a war into his own hands,' another one of the three people said. The account of the command counters Musk's narrative of how he has handled Starlink service in Ukraine amid the war. As recently as March, in a post on X, his social media site, Musk wrote: 'We would never do such a thing.' Musk and Nicolls didn't respond to requests from Reuters for comment. A SpaceX spokesperson said by email that the news agency's reporting is 'inaccurate' and referred reporters to an X post earlier this year in which the company said: 'Starlink is fully committed to providing service to Ukraine.' The spokesperson didn't specify any inaccuracies in this report or answer a lengthy list of questions regarding the incident, Starlink's role in the Ukraine war, or other details regarding its business. The office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and the country's Ministry of Defence didn't respond to requests for comment. Starlink still provides service to Ukraine, and the Ukrainian military relies on it for some connectivity. Zelenskiy as recently as this year has publicly expressed gratitude to Musk for Starlink. It isn't clear what prompted Musk's command, when exactly he gave it, or precisely how long the outage lasted. The three people familiar with the order said they believed it stemmed from concerns Musk expressed later that Ukrainian advances could provoke nuclear retaliation from Russia. One of the people said the shutoff transpired on September 30, 2022. The two others said it was around then, but didn't recall the exact date. Some senior U.S. officials shared Musk's concerns that Russia would make good on threats to escalate, one former White House staffer told Reuters. Musk's order was an early glimpse of the power the magnate now wields in geopolitics and global security because of Starlink, a fast-growing satellite internet service that barely existed early this decade and now provides connectivity even in remote areas of the world. Even before his brief role as financial backer and advisor to U.S. President Donald Trump, the success of Starlink – and the unrivaled connectivity it offers across the planet – had given Musk increasing influence with political leaders, governments and militaries worldwide. Musk's sway in military affairs in Washington and beyond – through Starlink's dominance in satellite communications and SpaceX's clout in space launches – has reached a dimension previously limited to sovereign governments, alarming some regulators and lawmakers. 'Elon Musk's current global dominance exemplifies the dangers of concentrated power in unregulated domains,' Martha Lane Fox, a member of Britain's upper house of parliament, said during a debate earlier this year. The parliamentarian is a businesswoman and former board member at Twitter, the social media site that Musk acquired in 2022 and rebranded as X. 'Its control,' Lane Fox said of Starlink, 'rests solely with Musk, allowing his whims to dictate access to vital infrastructure.' Musk's political influence, and his massive business with the U.S. federal government, are now being put to the test. Since leaving his role advising Trump, Musk has publicly feuded with the president, announced plans to create a new political party, and criticized a signature spending bill that he said will expand the budget deficit and destroy jobs. Trump, for his part, has threatened to end government contracts and subsidies for Musk's companies, including lucrative new defense projects. Whatever the reason for Musk's decision, the shutoff over Kherson and other regions surprised some involved with the Ukraine war – from troops on the ground to U.S. military and foreign policy officials, who after Russia's full-scale invasion that February had worked to secure Starlink service for Ukrainian forces. Panicked calls by Ukrainian officials during the outage to seek information from Pentagon counterparts, five people familiar with the incident said, were met with few explanations for what could have caused it. The U.S. Department of Defense declined to comment. Reuters couldn't determine whether White House or Pentagon officials after the shutdown had any exchanges with Musk over the outage. The Kherson episode is distinct from an earlier report of an incident that purportedly occurred that same September, involving Crimea just to the south, and raised concerns about Musk's ability to influence the conflict in Ukraine. In his 2023 biography of Musk, author Walter Isaacson reported that the tycoon had ordered Starlink to disable coverage in Crimea, which Russia had annexed from Ukraine after a 2014 invasion that the international community condemned as illegal. Musk, Isaacson wrote, believed a planned Ukrainian attack on Russian vessels in the Crimean port of Sevastopol could prompt nuclear retaliation. After the book was published, Musk denied a shutdown, saying that there had never been coverage in Crimea to begin with. He said he had, rather, rejected a Ukrainian request to provide service ahead of Kyiv's planned attack. Isaacson later conceded his account was flawed. A spokesperson at Isaacson's publisher declined to comment or make him available for an interview. SpaceX also said in 2023 that it had taken unspecified steps to prevent Ukraine from using Starlink for certain activities, including drone attacks. 'Our intent was never to have them use it for offensive purposes,' Gwynne Shotwell, the company's president, said at a conference in Washington in February of that year. 'There are things that we can do, and have done' to prevent it, she added, without providing further detail. Reuters couldn't determine if the shutdown affecting Kherson was among the steps she was referring to. Shotwell didn't respond to requests for comment for this article. Following the start of the Kherson shutdown, word of an outage emerged in some media reports. At the time, it wasn't clear to those who lost connectivity whether a technical problem, sabotage or some other factor was responsible. Early in the war, Russia had orchestrated a large cyberattack that disrupted service of another satellite operator, Western officials have said, creating suspicions around any outage and leaving a void quickly filled by Starlink. Russia has denied it conducts offensive cyberattacks. As of April 2025, according to Ukrainian government social media posts, Kyiv has received more than 50,000 Starlink terminals. Easily transported and deployed, the pizza-box-sized devices communicate with thousands of SpaceX satellites now circling the globe. An initial batch of terminals was provided to Ukraine by SpaceX itself. Further terminals have arrived from donors including Poland, the United States and Germany. This account of the outage, and the growing dependence on Musk by governments and militaries worldwide, is based on interviews with more than three dozen people with knowledge of SpaceX's operations and the company's technology. These people included current and former employees, U.S. and European military officials, and senior politicians and diplomats. The reporting puts a spotlight on Musk's control of services now critical to countries including the U.S., which has about $22 billion in contracts with SpaceX. Underscoring the point himself during his recent dispute with Trump, Musk threatened to decommission a SpaceX spacecraft the U.S. now relies upon to transport astronauts and critical cargo. His threat, later retracted, unnerved attorneys at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, who felt forced to explore whether Musk's warning could be considered a notice of contract termination, according to two people familiar with the matter. NASA didn't respond to Reuters' requests for comment. 'There needs to be some contractual assurances' that Musk won't cut off services to the U.S. government, said Lori Garver, a former deputy administrator of the agency. 'We will need to consider how comfortable the U.S. will be at putting SpaceX in the critical path on national security.' As countries increasingly rely on tech companies for everything from cyber defense to data storage, the question of dependence on one or a few dominant service providers will apply to other nations, too. 'Governments have to think through what that means,' said Marcus Willett, former deputy head of Britain's Government Communications Headquarters intelligence agency and now a senior adviser to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. SpaceX is the first company to establish an extensive network of communication satellites in low-Earth orbit, a region of space that is closer to the planet than areas where such satellites historically reside. The proximity of satellites that now make up the company's constellation allows Starlink to offer space-based wireless connectivity that is faster than any previously available. Starlink on Thursday suffered a rare global outage of several hours, the company said, because of an internal software problem. A Ukrainian military commander in a social media post said 'Starlink is down across the entire front,' updating the post two and a half hours later to say connectivity had returned. With more than 7,900 satellites now in orbit, SpaceX has become the world's largest satellite operator. Its devices, which relay signals among each other to create a network that communicates with the ground, account for about two-thirds of all active satellites in space, according to Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer at the Center for Astrophysics, Harvard & Smithsonian. Starlink began rolling out service in 2020 and now has more than six million customers in over 140 countries, territories and markets, according to a June Starlink social media post. Novaspace, a consulting firm near Paris, estimates that Starlink in 2025 will generate about $9.8 billion in revenue for SpaceX, or about 60% of the company's income. SpaceX is privately held and doesn't disclose financial information, but Musk recently said he expects the rocket company to post revenues of about $15.5 billion this year. Rivals are scrambling to get in on the market. OneWeb, a European service owned by Eutelsat, a French company, is the furthest along, boasting about 650 satellites in low-Earth orbit. Amazon this year launched its first satellites for Project Kuiper, a $10 billion effort to compete. China is developing multiple networks, including a state-backed venture known as SpaceSail. Still, Starlink has made much of its first-mover advantage. Its terminals, priced as low as a few hundred dollars for standard models, are known for being affordable and easy to use. 'There is no existing system right now to replace Starlink,' said Grace Khanuja, an analyst at Novaspace, the consultancy near Paris. Compared to the geostationary satellites historically used for communications, the sheer number of SpaceX satellites helps make Starlink less vulnerable to jamming and attacks. Its far reach makes it valuable in remote and hostile terrain – from battlefields to airspace to high seas. In Ukraine, it has facilitated activities including communications, intelligence and drone piloting. Some Western militaries not engaged in conflict are also using the service. Britain's armed forces, for instance, three years ago began using Starlink for 'welfare purposes,' including personal communications for troops, the Ministry of Defence said in response to a freedom of information request. The ministry said it has fewer than 1,000 Starlink terminals and doesn't employ them for sensitive military communications. Spain's navy is also using Starlink, but only for recreation and leisure of troops, a spokesperson said. 'That will change,' said Chris Moore, a retired air vice-marshal in the British military, speaking about high-speed space-based connectivity. Moore also worked as a OneWeb executive and is now a defense industry consultant. Satellites in low-Earth orbit, he said, offer too many advantages for militaries to ignore, especially for modern developments such as drone warfare, a signature element of the Ukraine conflict. Some leaders are leery. In Taiwan, ever wary of conflict with China, officials have expressed concern about Musk's extensive business interests on the mainland, including a major factory for Tesla, the electric vehicle company he controls. Eager for communications backups in the event of war, Taiwan is developing its own low-Earth orbit satellite network. Taiwanese officials have said the government could partner with Amazon's Kuiper, too. Spokespersons for the Taiwanese government said it welcomes international satellite providers but that Starlink hasn't applied for a license in Taiwan. They didn't respond to questions about Taipei's relationship with Musk. In Italy, the government is evaluating whether to employ Starlink for secure communications among the government, defense and other officials. But some officials, including President Sergio Mattarella, remain unconvinced by SpaceX's assurances that its service would be secure and free from meddling by Musk. 'More than Musk's word, we need assurances that we can't be shut down, and especially that he can't access the data,' said a person familiar with the views of the president, who is an influential figure with the armed forces. Poland, a major donor to Ukraine, told Reuters it employs Starlink as well as other military and commercial satellite systems. A mix of providers, Polish officials have said, offers the most security, even if at high cost. 'In peacetime, you want the best product at the best price,' Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said in response to a question from Reuters at a press conference in April. 'In wartime, you want redundancy. You want security. You want duplicated systems, so that if one fails, you can still use the other.' Even before the conflict began, documents reviewed by Reuters show, SpaceX had already been in discussions with the U.S. government about providing Starlink in Ukraine. Rollout began after Russian troops crossed the border on February 24, 2022. Two days later, Mykhailo Fedorov, a deputy prime minister in Ukraine, requested Musk's help. 'We ask you to provide Ukraine with Starlink stations,' he wrote on Twitter. Musk responded in 10 hours. 'Starlink service is now active in Ukraine,' he tweeted. 'More terminals en route.' Poland was also instrumental in the early days of the war, shipping thousands of terminals to Ukraine shortly after the invasion. Warsaw this year said it has purchased about 25,000 Starlink terminals for the effort – roughly half the total now in Ukraine – and that it is paying the subscription costs to keep them connected. So far, it has spentabout $89 million on Starlink for Ukraine. The equipment has made a critical difference for Ukraine. Day-to-day bureaucracy has also benefited. Early in the conflict, Ukraine stored state data in the cloud and relied on Starlink to access it, helping keep some government operations running. 'We wouldn't be anywhere without Starlink,' said Vadym Prystaiko, Ukraine's ambassador to Britain until 2023. 'The whole state was preserved.' On the battlefield, Ukraine quickly deployed Starlink to enable front-line troops to communicate with commanders. The service also allowed drone operators to transmit surveillance video streams and locate and attack Russian targets. Reuters couldn't establish just when such attacks may have become a concern for Musk or SpaceX. By September 2022, a major Ukrainian counteroffensive was underway. Kyiv's forces were pushing back into territories, including Kherson, that Russia had captured. The drive threatened Russian supply lines, prompting Moscow to threaten the West, including oblique references to Starlink. That month, in a statement to the United Nations, Russia noted the use of 'elements of civilian, including commercial, infrastructure in outer space for military purposes.' It warned that 'quasi-civilian infrastructure may become a legitimate target for retaliation.' It isn't clear whether Russia has tried to attack any Starlink facilities. Musk has said, however, that Moscow has repeatedly sought to block its connectivity. 'SpaceX is spending significant resources combating Russian jamming efforts,' Musk wrote on X last year. 'This is a tough problem.' The Kremlin declined to comment on whether it has sought to interfere with Starlink. The Ministry of Defence didn't respond to a request for comment. Starlink isn't licensed for either civilian or military use in Russia. As Ukraine's counterattack intensified, Russian President Vladimir Putin on September 21, 2022, ordered a partial mobilization of reservists, Russia's first since World War II. He also threatened to use nuclear weapons if Russia's own 'territorial integrity' were at risk. Around this time, Musk engaged in weeks of backchannel conversations with senior officials in the administration of President Joe Biden, according to three former U.S. government officials and one of the people familiar with Musk's order to stop service. During those conversations, the former White House staffer told Reuters, U.S. intelligence and security officials expressed concern that Putin could follow through on his threats. Musk, this person added, worried too, and asked U.S. officials if they knew where and how Ukraine used Starlink on the battlefield. Soon after, he ordered the shutdown. Reuters couldn't ascertain the full geographic extent of the outage, but the three people familiar with the stoppage said that it covered regions that had recently been taken by Russia. Starlink coverage prior to the order, they said, had been active up to what had been Ukraine's border with Russia before the full-scale invasion. Taras Tymochko, a Ukrainian military signals specialist stationed in the Kherson region at the time, said an outage disrupted communications for troops, including colleagues on the front, for several hours. 'If you were using Starlink to provide surveillance of the front line, you pretty much would be blind,' said Tymochko, who is now a consultant to Come Back Alive, a non-governmental organization that procures military equipment for Ukraine's armed forces. Maryna Tsirkun, a drone expert at Aerorozvidka, an aerial reconnaissance organization that works closely with the Ukrainian military, was also in southern Ukraine at the time. Starlink signals failed as Ukrainian troops began to push toward terrain seized by Russia, she told Reuters. 'When we started to proceed there was not a connection,' she said. The outage she and colleagues experienced lasted several days. On October 3, Musk angered Zelenskiy and other Ukrainian officials by tweeting a suggestion that locals in regions annexed by Russia vote on whether they should remain a part of Ukraine. A day later, Musk tweeted his concern about the conflict spiraling. 'I still very much support Ukraine,' he tweeted, 'but am convinced that massive escalation of the war will cause great harm to Ukraine and possibly the world.' Three days later, following one media report about a Starlink outage, Musk tweeted that 'what's happening on the battlefield, that's classified.' He added that SpaceX by the end of 2022 was on track to spend $100 million on Ukraine. Although the Polish and U.S. governments by then had begun donations of their own, the billionaire complained about the cost of the equipment and services SpaceX was providing. SpaceX 'cannot fund the existing system indefinitely,' Musk wrote in a mid-October post. The next day, in another tweet, he reversed course. 'To hell with it,' he wrote, 'we'll just keep funding Ukraine govt for free.' After the outage, Kyiv worked to charm Musk. In November 2022, Fedorov, the government minister, publicly expressed trust in the service. Months later – just after Shotwell, the SpaceX president, said the company had taken steps to prevent Ukraine from using Starlink for drone attacks – Fedorov in an interview with a Ukrainian news site recognized Starlink's ability to 'geofence' coverage, selectively limiting signals in some areas. By February 2023, however, Starlink was fully functional in Ukraine, he said. 'All the Starlink terminals in Ukraine work properly,' Fedorov told Ukrainska Pravda, the news site. Fedorov, who recently assumed the title of first deputy prime minister, didn't respond to a request for comment about Ukraine's use of Starlink in the war. In mid-2023, the U.S. Department of Defense signed an agreement with SpaceX to pay for Starlink coverage in Ukraine. Terms of the contract weren't disclosed, but Quilty Space, a Florida-based research firm, said the Pentagon has an ongoing $537 million agreement with SpaceX to provide satellite communications to Ukraine. It's not clear whether SpaceX is still footing the bill for any equipment or connectivity. As the war has evolved, so has Ukraine's use of Musk's technology. Ukrainian drone specialists and Prystaiko, the former ambassador to Britain, said some attack devices, including maritime and bomber drones, now have Starlink antennas fitted to them. The antennas, in the case of sea drones, help operators guide the devices and view video feeds to classify targets, said Sidharth Kaushal, a senior research fellow at Royal United Services Institute, a London-based defense think tank. It's uncertain whether such use contravenes SpaceX's desire that Starlink not be employed for offense. Ukraine continues to explore alternatives that could complement or back up Starlink if the service became unavailable, a senior government official told Reuters. Ukraine's government has expressed interest in European satellite projects, European Commission spokesperson Thomas Regnier told Reuters. That includes GOVSATCOM, an EU project to pool satellite resources from member states and industry to provide services to governments, he said. Privately, though, some Ukrainian officials say the existing alternatives to Starlink have limitations. 'It takes time, it takes money,' the senior government official told Reuters. With Starlink, he added, 'we have a working system.' Musk himself has boasted of Starlink's importance to Kyiv. 'My Starlink system is the backbone of the Ukrainian army,' he wrote on X in March. 'Their entire front line would collapse if I turned it off.'
NDTV
2 hours ago
- NDTV
Russia Begins Monthly Direct Flights To North Korea Amid Ukraine Conflict
Russia on Sunday began direct commercial flights to North Korea, in a further sign of closer ties with its Asian ally helping its offensive in Ukraine. The first Moscow-Pyongyang flight, operated by Nordwind Airlines, was scheduled to take off at 1600 GMT and land in the North Korean capital some eight hours later, according to the carrier's website. Nordwind Airlines -- a company that used to serve holiday destinations in Europe before the EU imposed a ban on Russian flights -- had tickets priced at 45,000 rubles ($570). Russia's state news agency TASS reported that the first flight going the other way, from Pyongyang to Moscow, would take place on Tuesday. Russia's transport ministry said the route would be serviced once a month. Russia and North Korea restored train links on June 17 after suspending them in 2020 during the Covid pandemic. The two countries have been forging closer military bonds in recent years, with Pyongyang supplying troops and weapons for Russia to use in its military operations in Ukraine. They signed a mutual defence pact last year, when Russian President Vladimir Putin visited North Korea. North Korea confirmed for the first time in April that it had deployed a contingent of its soldiers to the frontline in Ukraine, alongside Russian troops.
Mint
3 hours ago
- Mint
EM Debt Hedge Funds Eye Safeguards as World-Beating Rally Blooms
(Bloomberg) -- Hedge funds dedicated to emerging-market debt are increasingly turning to risk-mitigating strategies to ensure they lock in double digit gains as a broad rally in developing nation assets deepens. After a banner first half of the year, hedge funds targeting EM debt have returned nearly 13% on an annual basis — more than their peers positioned in any other asset class, according to data based on Bloomberg indexes. The latest global financial flows data shows the asset class remains thriving and the extra yield investors demand to hold the sovereign debt of developing nations over US Treasuries just hit a 15-year low. Such tight pricing, along with uncertainty over US policies and global conflicts, is pushing hedge funds to curb risks as they ride the historic rally. The funds do this by swapping longer-maturity bonds in their portfolios for less risky shorter-dated ones. They also focus on higher-rated debt and the most-liquid securities while keeping an ample cash pile. 'Do you just want to be massively long on credit on these valuations? I'd say probably not,' said Anthony Kettle, who co-manages BlueBay Emerging Market Unconstrained Bond Fund with Polina Kurdyavko and Brent David. 'Having a little bit of dry powder evidently makes sense, and also running elevated cash levels.' To be clear, Kettle said, there's still a 'decent environment' to gain additional returns as funds become more selective and can profit from both rising and falling asset prices, unlike index-based investors. The $784-million BlueBay fund has returned 17% over the past 12 months. Investors have taken advantage of EM inflows stoked by increased interest for alternative assets amid US policy unpredictability, which has also weakened the dollar. While many developing countries have come out of distressed debt levels as sentiment improved, further risks include another Iran-Israel flare up and potential additional increases in US tariffs, including on the buyers of Russian energy. President Donald Trump's administration has caused a 'breakdown of the traditional safe haven correlations' by shaking up the post-Cold War world order, creating an 'unusual and unpredictable' environment, said Demetris Efstathiou, the chief investment officer of Blue Diagonal EM Fixed Income Fund. 'It is very hard to predict what they will do next with tariffs, and on top of that you have ongoing wars,' Efstathiou said. His fund is 'very conservatively' positioned with shorter-maturity bonds and he avoids weak credits to protect the portfolio in the event of a global slowdown and market downturn. He has increased holdings of AAA- and AA-rated EM sovereigns along with less-indebted countries with large domestic markets like Brazil, Turkey and Mexico. EM-dedicated bond funds have received $31 billion in inflows year-to-date, with positioning increased in each of the last 14 weeks as global markets recalibrate after an era of US dominance. A near-record $5.7 billion piled into the asset class in the week though July 23, according to EPFR Global data provided by economists at Bank of America Corp. For some, flows of such a magnitude signal that EM debt is already predicting the best-case scenario. 'The market is now priced for a Goldilocks scenario with the risk of a severe recession receding significantly and expectations' of one or more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the $847 million Enko Africa Debt Fund said in a letter to clients. Managed by Alain Nkontchou, the Africa-specific hedge fund has returned 24% over the past year. Nevertheless, the expected volatility means that traditional buy-to-hold trades may not necessarily succeed and that hedge funds will prioritize holding more liquid assets to ensure an easier exit in case sentiment turns, according to ProMeritum Investment Management LLP, a $700-million fund that invests in developing markets outside China. 'Liquidity management will be critical in the second half of the year because of an unpredictable environment and geopolitical risks,' said Evgueni Konovalenko, managing partner and head of strategy at the firm. Such a focus is needed 'to take advantage of both short and long positions with sudden policy changes and a daily barrage of headlines.' --With assistance from Jorgelina do Rosario. More stories like this are available on
