Names in play for Marlins' first-round pick, how 2024 picks are doing and trade chatter
Miami must hope for better fortune when MLB holds the first three rounds of its amateur draft on Sunday night.
The Marlins select seventh overall on Sunday and should have a choice among several highly regarded pitchers and shortstops, among others.
In his recent mock draft, The Athletic's Keith Law projects the Marlins to select prep right-hander Seth Hernandez, who pitches for Corona High in California and has a fastball that touches 98 mph as well as a plus changeup.
'The Marlins went heavy for high schoolers last year, and I've heard them more with prep players than college players this year,' Law said. 'I've also heard them on Hernandez's teammate Billy Carlson and on JoJo Parker.'
Carlson and Parker (a prep standout in Mississippi) are rated the seventh- and ninth-best prospects by MLB.com, which has five shortstops overall among its top 10 players available, including Oklahoma prep stars Ethan Holliday (ranked first) and Eli Willits (fifth) and Oregon State's Aiva Arquette, who is ranked sixth and hit .354 (.461 on base) with 19 homers and 66 RBI in 65 games for the Beavers this past season. Wake Forest shortstop Marek Houston also is considered a top-10 prospect by some evaluators.
Pitchers projected for Miami's range include Martinez (who could be off the board at seven), FSU left-hander Jamie Arnold (Law mocks him ninth), Tennessee left hander Liam Doyle and Oklahoma Sooners right-hander Kyson Witherspoon, Oregon prep left-hander Kruz Schoolcraft and UC-Santa Barbara right-hander Tyler Bremner.
Though catching has been transformed from a weakness to a strength of the organization, don't discount Auburn outfielder/catcher.first baseman Ike Irish, who hit .364 (.469 on base) with 19 homers and 58 RBI in 55 games for the Tigers this past season.
Kiley McDaniel, ESPN's lead MLB draft analyst, noted that 'in the first draft under new president of baseball ops Peter Bendix [formerly of the Rays] and scouting director Frankie Piliere [formerly of the Mariners], the Marlins took prep position players with their top two picks.
'Rumors have them eyeballing a similar strategy this year, which would be in keeping with a player demographic that the Rays and Mariners have found success with in the past. With a comp pick and over $15 million in bonus pool money, there's plenty of muscle to get more than two premium talents in this year's haul.'
Besides the seventh pick, the Marlins also select 43rd, 46th and 78th on Sunday before rounds 4 through 20 are held on Monday.
The Marlins' first-day 2024 draft picks remain works in progress. South Carolina prep outfielder PJ Morlando, a surprise pick at No. 16 last July, played in only one minor-league game for the Marlins last summer before sustaining a season-ending lumbar stress reaction. He missed the start of this season after left elbow surgery, then missed five weeks with a left hamstring sprain.
He's hitting .231 (.427 on base) with two homers and nine RBI in 20 games at Class A Jupiter. Morlando can play all three outfield positions; the Marlins have primarily used him in left field.
It was widely reported that the decision to draft Morlando was at least partially driven by finances. Teams have a pot to split up among draft picks, and by persuading Morlando to sign for $3.4 million (which was $1.3 million below his slot value), the Marlins could pay more for second-round pick Carter Johnson, the former Alabama-based prep shortstop/second baseman who's hitting .185 in 70 games at Class A Jupiter this season.
Several players selected after Morlando in the first round have shown more promise so far. That group includes former Texas prep outfielder Braylon Payne (selected by Milwaukee one pick after Morlando) and Oklahoma State outfielder Carson Benge, who was chosen 19th overall by the Mets and already has advanced to Double A and has 39 RBI in 70 games for two minor-league teams this season.
Right-hander Aiden May, selected 70th overall by the Marlins out of Oregon State last July, was scheduled to make his professional debut in a Marlins' FCL game on Wednesday. He didn't pitch after the draft last year and missed the first three months of this season after elbow surgery.
Second baseman/third baseman Gage Miller, the Marlins' 2024 third-round pick from the University of Alabama, has been decent this season at low A Beloit: .232, .344 on base, four homers, 17 RBI in 270 plate appearances.
Drafts cannot be judged fairly for years, but the Marlins likely need at least two of those four players to become quality major-leaguers for the 2024 draft to be considered a good one.
This and that
The Marlins (42-48) had won 11 in a row on the road entering Wednesday's game at Cincinnati. It's the longest road winning streak since Philadelphia won 13 in a row in 2023.
▪ How good has rookie catcher Agustin Ramirez been? Marlins TV voice Kyle Sielaff put in context. Counting the first 66 games of any Marlins player in history, Ramirez ranks tied for first in homers in 14; first in extra base hits with 33; second in doubles with 18 and tied for fourth in RBI with 40.
▪ In its annual list of the top 40 candidates to be traded before the July 31 trade deadline, MLBtraderumors.com ranks Marlins right-handers Sandy Alcantara and Edward Cabrera first and 27th, respectively. Cabrera — who has battled injuries and inconsistency in the past — had a 1.50 ERA through his past eight starts and a 3.33 ERA for the season.
Though the Marlins would be selling low on Alcantara (7.01 ERA in 17 starts), the website notes that 'market conditions this summer are very seller-friendly. There are only a handful of clubs certain to sell, and even fewer who both have and are willing to part with quality, controllable pieces. That gives the Marlins a great deal of power on the trade market, as they hold two of the best controllable arms who are expected to be available in Cabrera and Alcantara.
'With so many contenders in need of starting pitching and limited options available, it's at least conceivable that a desperate team would be willing to take the risk of paying something close to full value for Alcantara's services despite his brutal performance this year.
Outfielder Jesus Sanchez is rated 17th; the website notes 'he's a straightforward target for teams that need to raise the floor in the corner outfield. He's still reasonably affordable and controllable for two years after this one, though his expected arbitration salary may climb to a point beyond what teams are willing to pay by 2027.'
MLBtraderumors ranks reliever Anthony Bender 35th. The order of the list is based on a 'a balance between the player's appeal and the likelihood that they'll move.'
▪ Left-hander Robby Snelling, acquired by the Marlins in last July's Tanner Scott trade with San Diego, will make his 2025 Triple A debut for Jacksonville on Thursday. Snelling, rated by MLB.com as the Marlins' No. 3 prospect, had a 2.68 ERA in his past seven starts at Double A and a 3.61 ERA in 14 starts this season.
This will be his second Triple A appearance; he allowed one run in six innings in a game for Jacksonville last season.

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