Bitcoin at the Crossroads: FBS Analysts Look at What's Next
FBS, one of the leading global brokers, has released a new market analysis asking the big question: " Has Bitcoin's bull run peaked — or is another major rally still ahead in 2025?".
According to the article, Bitcoin is now trading between $106,000 and $110,000. Some traders believe this is just a pause before the final surge, while others think the market may have already reached its high point.
FBS analysts say this cycle follows a familiar pattern seen in the past. Historically, Bitcoin often rises strongly about a year after its 'halving' — a regular event that reduces the new coin supply. The last halving happened in April 2024, and Bitcoin has already grown over 600% from its 2022 lows. That growth is similar to what happened in past cycles.
'Bitcoin is holding strong, even during short-term drops,' FBS experts explain. 'This shows demand is high — especially from large investors and new ETFs.'
So far in 2025, Bitcoin ETFs in the US have attracted over $5 billion, and now manage more than $130 billion in assets. Many large companies are also buying and holding Bitcoin as part of their long-term plans.
However, there are also warnings to watch. Market sentiment is getting very optimistic — a sign that some investors may be acting out of fear of missing out. Leveraged trading is on the rise again, which can lead to big swings in price. Some analysts believe this may signal that the top is near.
Global events add more uncertainty. In June, tensions in the Middle East caused Bitcoin to drop suddenly, reminding traders that crypto still reacts to fear and global risks. At the same time, new crypto regulations in the US and Europe could either help Bitcoin grow — or slow it down, depending on how they are applied.
Despite these risks, many analysts remain positive. Big banks now expect Bitcoin to reach $200,000 by the end of 2025, driven by strong demand, more investment, and easier monetary policy.
'Bitcoin could still climb higher — especially if the US starts cutting interest rates later this year,' FBS analysts say. 'But it's important for traders to manage risks and stay prepared.'
Users can read the full Bitcoin cycle outlook in the latest FBS analysis.
About FBS
FBS is a global brand that unites several independent brokerage companies under the licenses of FSC (Belize), CySEC (Cyprus), and ASIC (Australia). With 16 years of experience and over 100 international awards, FBS is steadily developing as one of the market's most trusted brokers. Today, FBS serves over 27 000 000 traders and more than 700 000 partners around the globe.
Contact
FBS
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
Why your Social Security check could shrink by nearly 20% — and more if jobs are scarce
Social Security is hugely important to a large share of Americans. Almost 69 million Americans will receive monthly Social Security benefits in 2025, totaling about $1.6 trillion in benefits paid during the year. But Social Security will need some kind of reform within the next decade in order for America's retirees to keep counting on it. Given its funding structure, if Social Security continues to roll forward in its current trajectory, the program will be able to cover just 81% of promised benefits starting in 2034, according to the latest estimates of the Social Security Trust Fund report. My brother stole $100K from my mom to buy bitcoin. Do I convince her to sue him? Most American weddings are a lot more extravagant than the nuptials of Amazon's Jeff Bezos I'm a stay-at-home. Do I take a part-time job to spend more time with my kids — or get a job for six figures? JPMorgan has a new way of forecasting the stock market — and there's a surprising finding 'He doesn't seem to care': My secretive father, 81, added my name to a bank account. What about my mom? Congress will need to take action. But both Republicans and Democrats have long been reluctant to reduce Social Security benefits and averse to raising payroll taxes to close the funding gap. Yet the economic reality can't be ignored. The way in which Social Security is funded exposes the program to challenges. Unlike other forms of saving for retirement, where workers put away savings into an account that is dedicated to them, this pay-as-you-go system acts more like a checking account: Current workers are paying into the system and the current beneficiaries are receiving those funds out of the program. This structure did not present a challenge while the baby-boom generation was entering the workforce in the early 1960s, with the share of workers paying into the system rising much faster than the share of the population able to claim benefits. Since the early 2000s the tables have turned: The share of the U.S. population that is 18-64 has been declining while the share that is 65 and older grew at the fastest rate in over a century, going from 13.0% of the total population in 2010 to 16.8% in 2020. As a result of these opposing trends, while there were about 18 people aged 65 and older for every 100 working-age Americans in 1980, this dependency ratio grew to 30 retirement-age Americans per 100 workers in 2025 (see the chart above). The ratio of retirees to workers is likely to continue increasing beyond the retirement of the baby boomers because of the lower fertility rates that the U.S. has experienced over the past 15 years or so. For several years, the trustees of the Social Security Trust Fund have been projecting that the program has promised more benefits than it is able to pay out. According to the latest trustees report, released on June 18, the combined Old-Age, Survivors and Disability Insurance Trust Fund is expected to be depleted in 2034. At that time, benefits will be paid only from the income that is coming in, as there won't be anything in the reserves to supplement that income. Legally, the trust fund cannot borrow money. At that point, the trust funds would only be sufficient to pay about 81 cents on every dollar scheduled to be paid. Unless policymakers make deliberate efforts to clarify how to handle shortfalls, it is likely that the program will face similar uncertainties in the future. Right now, we face uncertainty in how the gap between the funds coming in and the benefits promised will be closed. It is not clear if beneficiaries will face those benefit cuts, if taxpayers will be liable for those tax increases, or something else. Both the benefits paid and the contributions into Social Security are prescribed by law. This means it's likely that demographic or economic assumptions will change again at some point in the future, resulting in an imbalance between the benefits that are scheduled to be paid and the revenue that is expected to come in. For example, when there's an economic downturn, fewer people are working and contributing into the trust fund. There are other ways in which the retirement security system is lacking that could be addressed. While the existence of Social Security and Medicare have contributed to a dramatic reduction in elderly poverty, some groups face persistent challenges. Although survivor benefits provide helpful protection to surviving spouses, there is some evidence that the existing level of survivor insurance may not be adequate to cover the costs that a surviving spouse incurs. In 2019, among those 60 and over, 16% of new widows lived in poverty, compared to 10% overall. There remain significant expenditure risks that the elderly face that are not fully addressed by Social Security and Medicare. While Social Security does not provide any kind of medical payments, Medicare provides a source of health insurance for most people over the age of 65. However, Medicare doesn't cover everything, and there are significant copayments and deductibles that a person may be responsible for. Read: Trump pledged not to cut Medicare — but his budget bill does just that For example, annual out-of-pocket spending on healthcare was on average $6,663 for all beneficiaries enrolled in traditional Medicare in 2019, according to a study by AARP. This average out-of-pocket spending for healthcare was equivalent to about 38% of the average annual Social Security retirement benefit ($17,460) in 2019. Moreover, there is a significant coverage gap regarding long-term care services for chronic conditions. This type of care is costly and largely paid for either out of pocket, through state Medicaid programs for those who qualify, or provided by unpaid caregivers, often spouses and adult children, who indirectly bear the costs through reduced labor force participation and adverse impacts on their own health. A person turning 65 between 2021 and 2025 is estimated to incur, on average, $120,900 in paid long-term care costs, of which 37% is estimated to be paid out of pocket, and the remainder covered by a combination of Medicaid (and other sources of public insurance) and private insurance (see here). Read: $1 trillion in cuts to Medicaid would have a devastating impact on people receiving long-term care. Here's why. Also read: Medicare may actually be in more trouble than Social Security What will Social Security reform ultimately look like? The answer is unclear at this stage. Would it be an across-the-board cut or a cut that applies more to certain people than others? Will the burden fall on all U.S. taxpayers or only on current workers? Delaying real discussion about the solutions makes the problems harder to solve. The timeline that the U.S. has to fix it is shorter and the change that is needed is more drastic than it would be otherwise. While addressing the imminent financial challenges of the program will be unavoidable, Americans shouldn't just be thinking about the issue of solvency. What is the role of government and markets in providing this protection? How can Americans ensure that their major entitlement programs are solvent and sustainable for the long term? Social Security reform offers an opportunity to take comprehensive look at how policy can best help people manage the risks they face in retirement. Gopi Shah Goda is director of the Retirement Security Project, the Alice M. Rivlin chair in economic policy and senior fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. This commentary was originally published by Econofact — 'Facing the Social Security Shortfall.' Also read: As Social Security starts operating under controversial new rules, here's how they could affect you and your benefits More: Social Security will stop sending paper checks soon. How to make sure you still get your benefits on time. S&P 500 scores record high for first time in 4 months. What could push stocks higher from here? There's an important market indicator that suggests investors remain wary. It's good news for stocks. My job is offering me a payout. Should I take a $61,000 lump sum or $355 a month for life? What drove stock market's record-breaking week? Don't overlook growing rate-cut expectations. Coinbase's stock is up over 40% this month as Wall Street projects amazing profit growth Sign in to access your portfolio
Business Insider
an hour ago
- Business Insider
Crypto Miner IREN Surges 102% as AI Pivot Delivers Profit Haul
IREN Limited (IREN) is undergoing a transformation, and investors have taken notice. The cryptocurrency mining firm is turning into a profitable digital infrastructure play by combining Bitcoin mining with high-demand AI cloud services. So far, so good, as its recent numbers tell a compelling story: record quarterly revenue of $148.1 million, a return to profitability with $24.2 million in net income, and a rock-solid balance sheet. Confident Investing Starts Here: I am optimistic about the stock and believe it deserves serious consideration for those seeking exposure to a crypto miner with an AI infrastructure technology play. The stock has outstanding growth potential, with analyst price targets suggesting potential gains of more than 50%. The stock price has doubled over the past three months alone. Evolution into an AI Infrastructure Provider IREN has reinvented itself as a next-generation infrastructure provider serving both Bitcoin mining and AI computing needs. It operates cutting-edge data centers across North America, with facilities strategically located in Canada and Texas, all powered by renewable energy. The company has grown from holding a modest 2.8% share of Bitcoin production to capturing 4.5% of the market, placing it among the top 10 publicly traded miners globally. But the real game-changer has been the addition of AI cloud services, powered by nearly 1,900 NVIDIA H100 and H200 graphics processing units (the gold standard for AI computing). What sets IREN apart from competitors like Marathon Digital (MARA) and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is its commitment to renewable energy and operational efficiency. The company has achieved industry-leading performance with an all-in Bitcoin mining hash cost of just $23, resulting in gross profit margins exceeding 87%. However, in March, management made the strategic decision to pause Bitcoin mining expansion at 52 exahash per second and to redirect resources toward AI infrastructure development. It is a bold move into a rapidly growing market that McKinsey projects will require $6.7 trillion in infrastructure investment by 2030. Transformation Drives Financial Results The results from the last quarter suggest a successful transition. Q3 FY2025 revenue reached $148.1 million, 23.8% growth over the previous quarter. More to the point, the company achieved its second consecutive profitable quarter, reporting a net income of $24.2 million. Bitcoin mining contributed $141.2 million, with the company successfully mining 1,514 Bitcoins at a cost of $41,000 per coin while earning $93,000 per coin in revenue. Meanwhile, AI cloud services generated $3.6 million with a remarkable 97% hardware profit margin and 33% quarter-over-quarter growth, demonstrating that the business model transformation is working. Profitability metrics have been solid, with EBITDA of $83.3 million translating to a healthy 56% margin, while earnings per share of $0.11 were roughly in line with analyst expectations. The balance sheet is also quite strong, with zero debt and $184.3 million in cash, before a recent round of fundraising. IREN added $534.9 million from an oversubscribed convertible notes offering in June 2025, giving management significant resources to execute on growth plans. Looking ahead, management is targeting 50 exahash per second of mining capacity by June 2025, followed by the launch of Horizon 1, a 50-megawatt AI project in Q4. Furthermore, the company aims to bring online a massive 2-gigawatt facility in Texas by April 2026, which would significantly expand its AI hosting capabilities. A Deep Dive Into IREN's Valuation IREN appears undervalued when compared to peers in the cryptocurrency mining space. It trades at a relative discount, despite more robust forward-looking expectations, such as the forecast for positive EPS. Furthermore, the price-to-future-cash-flow ratio of 13.64x appears attractive when compared to the IT sector average of 19.15x, especially for a company executing a successful growth strategy in a high-demand market. The asset value story is equally compelling. With potential annual revenue exceeding $714 million at full mining capacity, plus growing AI services revenue, the enterprise value-to-forward EBITDA multiple of 12.16x appears modest relative to the sector average of 14.43x, suggesting the company's power infrastructure and renewable energy advantage may not be fully reflected in the current stock price. Is IREN a Good Stock to Buy? Wall Street has shown strong support for IREN's transformation story, with analysts issuing seven Buy ratings, one Hold, and no Sell recommendations over the past three months. IREN's average stock price target of $17.96 implies approximately 36% upside potential over the next twelve months. JPMorgan recently upgraded IREN to an 'Overweight' rating, naming it their top pick in the sector due to the company's operational efficiency and compelling growth outlook. Meanwhile, Nick Giles from B. Riley raised his price target to $15, and Roth MKM boosted its target to $20, both highlighting IREN's accelerated growth initiatives and strategic investments. The recently oversubscribed $550 million convertible notes offering also provides additional validation of institutional investor confidence. Initially announced at $450 million, the offering was increased twice due to strong demand, demonstrating that the smart money wants exposure to the company's growth story. Final Thoughts on IREN The company is currently undergoing a successful evolution from a Bitcoin miner into a diversified digital infrastructure provider with multiple revenue streams in a market with exceptional growth prospects. Its financial picture looks promising — the balance sheet is solid, revenue is trending up, and it's profitable again. The strategic pivot to AI infrastructure positions IREN to capitalize on a significant investment opportunity, while maintaining profitable Bitcoin mining operations. The combination of exposure to growth in the evolving digital economy, solid financials, and relative undervaluation makes this a stock I remain bullish on.
3 hours ago
US, China announce a trade agreement — again. Here's what it means
WASHINGTON -- The United States and China have reached an agreement — again — to deescalate trade tensions. But details are scarce, and the latest pact leaves major issues between the world's two biggest economies unresolved. President Donald Trump said late Thursday that a deal with China had been signed "the other day.'' China's Commerce Ministry confirmed Friday that some type of arrangement had been reached but offered few details about it. Sudden shifts and a lack of clarity have been hallmarks of Trump's trade policy since he returned to the White House determined to overturn a global trading system that he says is unfair to the United States and its workers. He's been engaged for months in a battle with China that has mostly revealed how much pain the two countries can inflict on each other. And he's racing against a July 8 deadline to reach deals with other major U.S. trading partners. The uncertainty over his dealmaking and the cost of the tariffs, which are paid by U.S. importers and usually passed on to consumers, have raised worries about the outlook for the U.S. economy. And although analysts welcomed the apparent easing of tensions with China, they also warned that the issues dividing Washington and Beijing are unlikely to be resolved anytime soon. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Friday that the Chinese had agreed to make it easier for American firms to acquire Chinese magnets and rare earth minerals critical for manufacturing and microchip production. Beijing had slowed exports of the materials amid a bitter trade dispute with the Trump administration. Without explicitly mentioning U.S. access to rare earths, the Chinese Commerce Ministry said that 'China will, in accordance with the law, review and approve eligible export applications for controlled items. In turn, the United States will lift a series of restrictive measures it had imposed on China.'' The Chinese have complained about U.S. controls on exports of advanced U.S. technology to China. But the ministry statement did not specifically say whether the United States planned to ease or lift those controls. In his interview on Fox Business Network's 'Mornings with Maria,' Bessent mentioned that the United States had earlier imposed 'countermeasures'' against China and 'had held back some vital supplies for them.'' "What we're seeing here is a de-escalation under President Trump's leadership,'' Bessent said, without spelling out what concessions the United States had made or whether they involved America's export controls. Jeff Moon, a trade official in the Obama administration who now runs the China Moon Strategies consultancy, wondered why Trump hadn't disclosed details of the agreement two days after it had been reached. 'Silence regarding the terms suggests that there is less substance to the deal than the Trump Administration implies,″ said Moon, who also served as a diplomat in China. The agreement that emerged Thursday and Friday builds on a "framework'' that Trump announced June 11 after two days of high-level U.S.-China talks in London. Then, he announced, China had agreed to ease restrictions on rare earths. In return, the United States said it would stop seeking to revoke the visas of Chinese students on U.S. college campuses. And last month, after another meeting in Geneva, the two countries had agreed to dramatically reduce massive taxes they'd slapped on each other's products, which had reached as high as 145% against China and 125% against the U.S. Those triple-digit tariffs threatened to effectively end trade between the United States and China and caused a frightening sell-off in financial markets. In Geneva, the two countries agreed to back off and keep talking: America's tariffs went back down to a still-high 30% and China's to 10%. That led to the talks in London earlier this month and to this week's announcement. If nothing else, the two countries are trying to ratchet down tensions after demonstrating how much they can hurt each other. 'The U.S. and China appear to be easing the chokeholds they had on each other's economies through export controls on computer chips and rare earth minerals, respectively,' said Eswar Prasad, professor of trade policy at Cornell University. "This is a positive step but a far cry from signaling prospects of a substantial de-escalation of tariffs and other trade hostilities.'' Trump launched a trade war with China in his first term, imposing tariffs on most Chinese goods in a dispute over China's attempts to supplant U.S. technological supremacy. Trump's trade team charged that China was unfairly subsidizing its own tech companies, forcing U.S. and other foreign companies to hand over sensitive technology in exchange for access to the Chinese market and even engaging outright theft of trade secrets. The squabbling and negotiating of the past few months appear to have done little to resolve Washington's complaints about unfair Chinese trade practices and America's massive trade deficit with China, which came to $262 billion last year. This week's agreement 'includes absolutely nothing related to the U.S.'s concerns regarding China's trade surplus or non-market behavior,'' said Scott Kennedy of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. 'If the two sides can implement these elements of the ceasefire, then they could begin negotiations on issues which generated the initial escalation in tensions in the first place.'' Since returning to the White House in January, Trump has made aggressive use of tariffs. In addition to his levies on China, he has imposed "baseline'' 10% taxes on imports from every country in the world . And he's announced even higher taxes — so-called reciprocal tariffs ranging from 11% to 50% — on countries with which the United States runs a trade deficit. But after financial markets sank on fears of massive disruption to world trade, Trump suspended the reciprocal levies for 90 days to give countries a chance to negotiate reductions in their barriers to U.S. exports. That pause lasts until July 8. On Friday, Bessent told Fox Business Network that the talks could extend beyond the deadline and be 'wrapped up by Labor Day'' Sept. 1 with 10 to 12 of America's most important trading partners. Trump further played down the July 8 deadline at a White House press conference Friday by noting that negotiations are ongoing but that 'we have 200 countries, you could say 200 countries-plus. You can't do that.' Instead of new trade deals, Trump said his administration would in coming days or weeks send out a letter where 'we're just gonna tell them what they have to pay to do business in the United States.'' Separately, Trump took sudden aim at Canada Friday, saying on social media that he's immediately suspending trade talks with that country over its plan to impose a tax on technology firms next Monday. Trump called Canada's digital services tax 'a direct and blatant attack on our country.' The digital services tax will hit companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, Uber and Airbnb with a 3% levy on revenue from Canadian users. It will apply retroactively, leaving U.S. companies with a $2 billion bill due at the end of the month.
