Box Office Preview: ‘F1' to Leave ‘M3GAN 2.0' in the Dust With High-Octane $40M-$50M U.S. Opening
If box office pundits are correct, Apple Original Films' critically acclaimed F1: The Movie will leave Blumhouse and Atomic Monster's sequel M3GAN 2.0 in the dust with an impressive domestic opening of $40 million to $50 million. Warner Bros., which is distributing and helping Apple to market the big-budget summer tentpole, is being more conservative in suggesting in the high $30 million range.
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Overseas, the action sports drama is forecasted to take in $75 million for a worldwide opening of $115 million or more against a net production budget of at least $200 million before marketing. (Sources tells The Hollywood Reporter the production budget is far higher, but there's no way of confirming whether that's the case.) The film has a huge advantage in having a lock on Imax screens for three weeks, in addition to other premium large-format screens, including Dolby Cinema, for part of that time. Presales have been strong, and Apple and Warners have been holding aggressive sneaks to spark word-of-mouth.
F1, starring Brad Pitt and directed by Top Gun: Maverick filmmaker Joseph Kosinski, is a seminal moment for Apple as it tries to jump-start its theatrical ambitions after getting driven off the road with box office misses Killers of the Flower Moon, from Martin Scorsese, and Ridley Scott's Napoleon.
Taking on Formula 1 is a bold move — top Apple exec Eddy Cue is a lifelong fan of the sport and sits on the board of Ferrari NV — since it has never been the marquee sport in the U.S. that it is overseas. In 2013, the wheels flew off of Ron Howard's F1 movie Rush, which topped out at $26.9 million domestically and $97 million globally.
Ford v Ferrari, starring Matt Damon and Christian Bale, fared far better in 2019, grossing $117.5 million in North America and $108.7 million overseas for a global haul of $226.3 million. But there's a major caveat: That film wasn't a Formula 1 movie, but rather a biographical drama with definite pro-America themes about the real-life U.S. engineer who helped the Ford Motor Co. build a car that could trump Ferrari and win the Le Mans race.
Formula 1, replete with plenty of fiery crashes, is nevertheless the world's most prestigious motor racing competition and is increasing its fan base in the U.S. — thanks in part to hit Netflix docuseries Drive to Survive.
In Kosinski's film, Pitt plays an injured former F1 driver who comes out of retirement to team up with a younger driver, played by Damson Idris. Javier Bardem stars as the F1 team owner who orchestrates the scheme.
Acclaimed composer Hans Zimmer wrote the score for the movie after working with Kosinski on Top Gun: Maverick.
Universal is forecasting a $20 million-plus opening for M3GAN 2.0, which would be $10 million less than the first film's $30.4 million record domestic opening in December 2023 on its way to earning $117.7 million in North America and $226.3 million globally against a minuscule $12 million production budget, not adjusted for inflation.
Jason Blum's Blumhouse and James Wan's Atomic Monster reteamed to make the follow-up for Universal. It launches amid a saturated market for horror fare. Nevertheless, pundits say the sequel is still likely to be a profitable piece of business for all involved, considering the budget was just $15 million.
The events of M3GAN 2.0 is set two years after the AI doll went on a murder spree to protect her young human charge (Violet McGraw) and was subsequently shelved. Her creator (Allison Williams), the aunt of the young girl, is now a high-profile author and advocate for government oversight of AI. But when another AI creature emerges that is even more dangerous, M3GAN is resurrected and mayhem ensues. Filmmaker Gerard Johnstone returned to direct the sequel from a story he wrote alongside Akela Cooper, and based on characters created by Cooper and James Wan.
Actors Brian Jordan Alvarez and Jen Van Epps return alongside McGraw and Williams, while franchise newcomers include Aristotle Athari, Timm Sharp and Grammy winner and 11-time Emmy nominee Jemaine Clement.
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