Semis still a hope for Ireland U20s ahead of huge Kiwi task
This has been coupled up with some great runs in the World U20 Championships with a final in 2023 and a semi in 2024 with some stars like Sam Prendergast making their first waves at International level. However, this year has been a bit more of a struggle for Neil Doak's side.
After what was a tense but great 35-28 win over Georgia in Round 1 Ireland followed that up with a narrow 18-16 defeat to hosts Italy in Lombardy on Friday night. Paidi Farrell of Ireland U20s scores a try against Georgia Pic: Roberto Bregani/Sportsfile
And now heading into the final round of matches Neil Doak's men face one hell of a challenge as they go up against the 'Baby Blacks' New Zealand with a chance at qualifying for the semi-finals for the third year on the trot hanging in the balance.
Progression to the semi-finals likely won't be a straightforward task because as ever the competition has an overly complicated format. The 12 teams are split into three groups of four with the winners of each group progressing to the semis.
Then the last semi-final spot is given to the best placed runners-up in the groups. So currently as it stands the group leaders are New Zealand, France and South Africa. Meanwhile the best runners-up is Argentina in Group B with 10 points, meanwhile Ireland sit on 6 points and England are on 5. Tom Wood of Ireland U20s converts a penalty Pic: Roberto Bregani/Sportsfile
So firstly there's the very straightforward task of beating New Zealand and not allowing the Kiwis to get a bonus point, or if they do then Ireland will need to get a bonus point of their own and then they'll top Group C. If New Zealand lose but gain two bonus points then they'll likely be top no matter what.
The second way they can progress to the semifinals is more complicated but also very likely. If Ireland win without a bonus point they'll be on 10 points and if New Zealand are able to get a losing bonus point then they'll likely top the group.
Ireland U20s will then have to rely on France to beat Argentina in Group B and not allow the Argentines to get a losing bonus. Argentina currently have a +10 points difference while Ireland have a +8. This means that if Argentina lose without a bonus they'll have at least a +2 points difference.
Therefore if Ireland win and finish second in the group they'll have the same 10 total points as Argentina but a points difference of greater than +2, meaning they'll be ahead of Argentina in the seedings. Mikey Yarr of Ireland U20s looks on against Italy. Pic: Emmanuele Ciancaglini/Note that during all of this Ireland will also have to hope England don't run up a massive score against Australia. England sit on 5 points but if they win with a bonus point they could be in contention of a semi-final spot with their +27 points difference.
So there's a lot to play for here but a win over New Zealand and restricting the Kiwis to no bonus points will secure Ireland a semi-final birth for the third year in-a-row. Of course beating New Zealand is never going to be an easy task but the 'Baby Blacks' only narrowly beat Italy 14-5 in their first outing and scored a similar amount of points against Georgia as Ireland did in their second, so on paper it should be an even battle.
However it won't be settled on paper, it will all be settled on Wednesday when the two face off at 5pm Irish time in Calvisano, Italy. You can catch the game live and for free on RugbyPass TV.
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