‘Superman' Soars To $407 Million ‘Jurassic World' Devours $648 Million
David Corenswet stars in "Superman."
Superman By The Numbers
With more than $45 million overseas and $57 million stateside, Superman finished once again ahead of most estimates heading into the weekend. My own mid-week predictions ahead of Superman's second weekend were 'around $57 million domestic weekend and about $42 million international, totaling roughly $410-415 million through close of business Sunday.'
Although the final total was slightly lower at $407 million, due to lower weekday totals than I anticipated (notably on Wednesday and particularly Thursday), it beat lower-end estimates and is enough to put $500+ million squarely in Superman's sights now.
Impressively, despite otherwise lower international turnout than hoped for, Superman's word-of-mouth superpower helped it to a terrific hold almost everywhere except Asia-Pacific, specifically China where the Man of Steel is facing a worst-case flop and will finish with less than $10 million total.
It's not an understatement to say the doomsday outcome in China, and to some extent South Korea where Superman will be lucky if it can limp to a $6 million final cume, has made a big difference in whether Superman finished at an acceptable $500-550 million and signal audiences are willing to give DC another chance, or was able to top $600 million and send an even louder message that audiences are not only willing but eager to show up for more.
Superman Sets The Stage
It looks like 'willing' is going to have to be good enough (and make no mistake, it is), as I think $600 million is out of reach for Superman at this point.
My own math, admittedly based on only two weekends of data, puts Superman right at $548 million, so call it $545-550 million range. High-end looks like $570 million, plus or minus a couple of million, which requires continued unexpectedly great holds internationally and at least average or better holds in North America for the rest of its run. Low-end is roughly $525 million.
So overall, $500 million has looked certain for Superman almost right out the gate, but this weekend clinched it, as well as confirming $600 million or higher was no longer in the cards. That's disappointing and certainly lower than anyone involved hoped for, no doubt, but it's the sort of disappointment that comes from winning the bronze medal instead of the silver, when you knew the gold was already claimed anyway.
It's a nice problem to have for once, if you're WBD and used to problems that were sinking your superhero slate instead of merely a lesser variation of success than you held out hope for. Superman is a going to do blockbuster box office (even if at the entry-level tier for using the term 'blockbuster') and is widely liked or loved, and has convinced audiences to show up again for DC movies that aren't just solo Batman projects.
Most importantly, I believe as it relates to the context of future potential, this looks a lot like what happened with Batman Begins, which is a nice comparison for Superman writer-director and DC Studios co-CEO James Gunn both from an artistic perspective but also from a financial perspective. We all know what came next for director Christopher Nolan's Batman trilogy, and I discussed it all in more detail in my article about Batman Begins' 20th anniversary, so be sure to check that out as well.
Gunn and his co-CEO Peter Safran understand how the original Richard Donner Superman movies planned a multi-film investment for payoff, Peter Jackson's The Lord of the Rings put the approach to famously successful use as well, and most directly relevantly Kevin Feige's entire MCU was built on the premise that the Phase One
Superman now faces Marvel Studios' MCU summer tentpole Fantastic Four: First Steps, which is on course for a $125 million opening weekend domestically and even bigger internationally. There's room in the marketplace for many films to succeed together, and I do think Superman will continue to enjoy decent audiences, but it's also true that Jurassic World: Rebirth's sustained holds and the global power of Marvel's brand make it hard to imagine an overperformance for the DCU hero next weekend.
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