US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites: The beginning of the West Asian endgame?

First Post

6 days ago

The strikes through the B-2 Bombers delivering the GBU-57 Deep Penetration bombs may have upstaged everything that has happened so far. One thing is clear: all shackles are off, and the world stands on the brink of war read more
A US Air Force B-2 Spirit Stealth Bomber (C) is flanked by 4 US Marine Corps F-35 fighters during a flyover of military aircraft down the Hudson River and New York Harbor past York City, and New Jersey, US, July 4, 2020. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo
The US B-2 Bombers bombed Iran's most secure nuclear enrichment site at Fordow in the early hours of 22 June, bringing an end to a week of speculation about whether the US will relent to Israel's request. With 30 Tomahawk missiles striking the other two prominent nuclear sites at Isfahan and Natanz simultaneously, it appears that the US has severely damaged, if not destroyed, Iran's nuclear programme for a long time, if not forever.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
However, what it has perhaps unleashed is an all-out conflict in West Asia, which may not be restricted to only Iran and Israel now. Initial reactions from Iran suggest that the Strait of Hormuz will be closed, and many Western and American assets in West Asia could now be targeted by Iran and its proxies in the region. How Russia, China and other Arab nations will react is yet to unfold, but one thing is clear: all shackles are off now, and the world stands on the brink of war!
Global events now seem to be moving in a direction quite at odds with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's thoughtful assertion that 'this is not an era of war'. India was itself forced into a sharp but brief conflict with Pakistan following a dastardly terror attack in Kashmir on April 22, killing 26 innocent civilians. 'Operation Sindoor', launched by India, struck deep into Pakistan, causing unprecedented damage to the terror infrastructure as well as Pakistan's air and air defence capabilities. Although the conflict was called off after 96 hours, after Pakistan pleaded for an immediate ceasefire, tensions continue to simmer.
Elsewhere in the globe, the situation is no better. The Russia-Ukraine war has completed three years since Russia launched 'Special Military Operations' in February 2022. Despite tall claims by US President Trump that he would end the war soon after taking over the presidency, the conflict has become more bitter in the past few weeks.
The 'Operation Spider Web', launched by Ukraine on June 1, through smuggled drones into Russia, reportedly destroyed more than 40 combat aircraft of Russia, including strategic bombers and surveillance planes. Russia, in turn, has intensified ground as well as air operations in Ukraine, targeting key assets including the capital city of Kyiv. In addition, Russia has warned European countries that any direct military aid to Ukraine may draw them into the conflict as well, forcing the EU as well as other major countries in Europe to take urgent measures to upgrade their defence preparedness as well as increase their defence budgets exponentially.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
In West Asia, the most conflict-ridden region since the end of World War II, the war in Gaza continues unabated. Every day brings in reports of Israeli strikes resulting in more deaths and destruction in Gaza. Latest official figures indicate that the death toll in Gaza has crossed 57,000, of which 70 per cent are women and children.
Although there is no active conflict presently in neighbouring Lebanon and Syria, the undercurrent of unease and tensions continues. While the Lebanese army has assured Israel that it will keep Hezbollah on a leash, the possibility of Hezbollah's resurgence, primarily to support Iran in the future, cannot be ruled out. In Syria, although a swift military operation ousted the Assad regime in December 2024, the new government under Al Sharaa is still finding its feet, and reports of skirmishes continue.
However, the most worrisome conflict is the Israel-Iran conflict. Initiated by Israel on 13th June, when Israeli strikes targeted and damaged Iran's nuclear enrichment sites in Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. In addition, Israel has eliminated almost 20 of Iran's top military leadership and nuclear scientists. Iran's retaliation through missile strikes too made a significant impact in Israel by causing substantial damage in the cities of Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, Israel's military headquarters, Haifa port city, and the Soroka hospital in Southern Israel. But the strikes through the B-2 Bombers delivering the GBU-57 Deep Penetration bombs may have upstaged everything that has happened so far.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Despite threats from the US of direct military intervention into Iran and demands that Iran surrender, Iran has refused to bow down to the threats. In turn, Iran has threatened to strike US military assets spread across more than 19 locations across West Asia. Also, the threat of closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the thin lifeline of crude oil and gas flow to the world, has caused panic and alarm across the globe, as any such disruption could cause a spike in crude oil prices, adding to the inflationary trends across the world. In addition, any strikes on US assets in the region would draw in the regional Arab neighbours directly or indirectly into the conflict, something that countries like Saudi Arabia and the UAE have successfully avoided since October 7, 2023.
Towards the Indo-Pacific, China is quietly upping the ante. Over the past year, tensions between China and Japan soared after the near-continuous deployment of Chinese advanced surveillance naval vessels in Japan's contiguous zone. Recently, Japan reported a near collision when a Chinese fighter jet from the aircraft carrier Shandong made 'abnormal approaches' to a Japanese patrol aircraft over the Pacific Ocean. Also, conflicting claims and disputes over islands and maritime assets around the South China Sea, as well as China's claims over Taiwan, are a recipe for a conflict, even through an unintended trigger.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Other regions like the Pakistan-Afghanistan border continue to remain conflict-prone, with frequent reports of cross-border skirmishes. Africa has its own share of conflicts and destruction through terror. In one recent incident, more than 150 people were killed in Nigeria's Yelewata community on June 13, when unknown assailants opened fire on villagers who were asleep.
Conclusion
The increasing range of conflicts in the world reflects the breakdown of the global order established after World War II. The emerging global powers like China and resurgent powers like Russia are challenging the space being ceded by the declining supremacy of the superpowers of the Cold War era. For India, this is not the time to be embroiled in any conflict. The priority is rapid and uninterrupted economic growth towards realising its vision of Viksit Bharat @ 2047. The swift end to Operation Sindoor may have drawn criticism from many quarters, but every day of continued conflict would have imposed costs that would have had a direct bearing on the goal of a developed and self-reliant India.
STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD
Col Rajeev Agarwal is a West Asia expert and a Senior Research Consultant at Chintan Research Foundation, New Delhi. His X Handle is @rajeev1421. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost's views.