Pakistan's army chief is cosying up to Donald Trump

Hindustan Times

12 hours ago

Field Marshal Asim Munir, Pakistan's army chief, could hardly have wished for more. For almost two years, he had been under fire at home over his meddling in politics. Wracked by debt and insurgent violence, his country had been sidelined in geopolitics as America and other rich countries courted India, Pakistan's arch-rival. And yet there he was, enjoying a private lunch with Donald Trump in the White House on June 18th, just over a month after Pakistan's brief conflict with India. Then, at the end of July, came further snubs for India: branding it a 'dead economy', Mr Trump imposed tariffs of 25% while hailing a new trade deal with Pakistan.
The Field Marshal's fortunes reflect a shift in American policy that affects India, China and the Middle East. America's close ties to Pakistan deteriorated after American forces killed Osama bin Laden in his Pakistani hideout in 2011. America then lost interest after leaving Afghanistan a decade later. But to India's dismay, America and Pakistan are now rebuilding ties with a focus on trade, counter-terrorism and consultation on Middle Eastern policy. America may even sell arms again to Pakistan (it currently gets around four-fifths of them from China).
Pakistan's politics may be at a turning point, too. There is still broad public support for Imran Khan, the jailed former prime minister (and one-time cricketer) who was barred from parliamentary polls in 2024. Even so, Field Marshal Munir's popularity has surged since the conflict with India. And the military-backed civilian government now has the two-thirds parliamentary majority needed to alter the constitution (after a controversial re-allocation of seats). That has ignited rumours that the army chief could become president too, opening a fourth period of military rule since independence in 1947.
The future of the world's second-largest Muslim country and its relations with America, India and China thus depends increasingly on one question: what exactly does Field Marshal Munir want? The man himself declined an interview request (as he has done for all media since his appointment in 2022). But Lieutenant General Ahmed Sharif Chaudhry, Pakistan's military spokesman, tells The Economist that talk of his boss becoming president is 'nonsense'. He also challenges the idea that the Field Marshal is more ideological than recent predecessors.
Unlike most of them, the Field Marshal is the son of an imam. He was educated in a madrasa and can recite the Koran by heart. He is also the first Pakistani army chief not to have trained in America or Britain. Yet General Chaudhry argues that the army chief is 'well versed' with the West and resolutely opposed to Jihadist groups operating on Pakistani soil (one of which India blames for the terrorist attack that triggered the recent conflict). Among his troops, the army chief often voices distaste for mullahs who have 'made religion a business,' General Chaudhry says.
On India, however, the military spokesman says the Field Marshal's personal views were reflected in a speech on April 16th, six days before the attack in the Indian-controlled part of Kashmir. Some suggest the Field Marshal was improvising when he invoked the idea that Hindus and Muslims could not co-exist in one nation, and described Kashmir as India's 'jugular vein'. Pakistan denies involvement in the Kashmir attack. But in that speech, the military spokesman suggests his boss was articulating 'what he stands for, what he is ready to die for', partly as a response to the rise of Hindu nationalism in India.
Others who have regularly met the army chief describe him as both pious and pragmatic, with a keen interest in the economy. Though he prays five times daily, says one, he does not 'apply spirituality to statecraft'. He admires the modernisation drive of Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman. Like MBS, he can be vindictive and has a temper, especially when talking about Mr Khan, who (as prime minister) sacked him as intelligence chief. And his appetite for risk is greater than that of his predecessor, who favoured quiet (and ultimately fruitless) diplomacy with India. Even some critics credit the Field Marshal with resisting foreign pressure not to respond to India's initial air strikes.
But his ultimate political ambitions are uncertain. Some predict he could grab the presidency soon to capitalise on his domestic popularity and Mr Trump's fondness for strongmen. That would institutionalise his authority (foreign and business leaders already try to deal with him directly on many matters). It would also offset the risk that a less pliant civilian leadership might replace him as army chief when his current term expires in 2027. Critics cite his promotion to Field Marshal in May, comparing him to Ayub Khan, Pakistan's first dictator and only other officer of that rank. Pakistan is not under martial law but 'Asim law', Mr Khan, the ex-prime minister, said in a statement from prison on July 24th.
The counter-argument is that the current 'hybrid' leadership works in the Field Marshal's favour. Aged just 57, he is the most powerful army chief since Pervez Musharraf, who seized power in a coup in 1999. He has a co-operative and able prime minister and, if the current political compact endures, he can remain as army chief indefinitely (there is no term limit or mandatory retirement age). He and civilian leaders also share an interest in suppressing Mr Khan's supporters (dozens of whom have recently been jailed, including 108 on July 31st alone) before parliamentary polls due by 2029. A more overt power grab might fuel support for Mr Khan, including in the armed forces.
Either way, the Field Marshal would probably still enjoy America's backing. He recently earned its praise for killing and capturing leaders of a local offshoot of Islamic State. He has sparked interest from Trump associates in Pakistan's crypto and mining sectors. And he has positioned Pakistan as a potential means to advance America's interests with Iran and its efforts to get more Muslim countries to establish diplomatic ties with Israel.
In return, America has toned down criticism of Pakistan's programme to build longer-range ballistic missiles, which officials from Joe Biden's administration considered a threat to America. It has resumed some aid programmes. It is also considering selling weaponry, including armoured vehicles and night-vision goggles, to help Pakistan combat local insurgents. And American officials are examining Pakistan's evidence to support its claims that India backs those insurgencies, although they are unconvinced so far.
The Field Marshal's aim is to build a more sustainable, multi-faceted relationship with America. There is potential for progress. It is, however, a high-wire act. The prospects for economic co-operation are uncertain given Pakistan's poor investment climate. Mutual distrust hampers efforts to combat terrorism. And while Pakistani officials suggest that closer ties with America will not come at China's cost, the Chinese leadership may disagree.
Then there is India. Field Marshal Munir wants to bring it to the negotiating table. Narendra Modi, India's prime minister, is determined to resist and has vowed to respond to any more terrorist attacks with further military action. Asked how Pakistan would react to that, its military spokesman says it would begin by striking deeper within India. 'We'll start from the east,' he says. 'They also need to understand that they can be hit everywhere.' The Field Marshal's grip on power may have increased since May. But so too have the risks of a bigger clash between South Asia's nuclear strongmen.