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Tahawul Tech6 days ago
"We are setting a new standard for customer innovation by focusing on both people and technology".
Learn more about @Verizon's use of Gemini models in app development below.
https://www.tahawultech.com/industry/technology/gemini-ai-to-be-integrated-in-verizons-app/
#Verizon #GeminiAI #tahawultech
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Foreign investors increase dollar hedges on US stock portfolios
Foreign investors increase dollar hedges on US stock portfolios

Zawya

time44 minutes ago

  • Zawya

Foreign investors increase dollar hedges on US stock portfolios

NEW YORK - Overseas asset managers and pensions are adding protection against a weakening dollar, concerned about the U.S. currency's diminishing ability to diversify their U.S. equity portfolios. Because such stock funds carry built-in dollar exposure, investors with other home currencies that had not neutralized the foreign exchange risk were cushioned when the dollar was strong if Wall Street performed badly. But the dollar's correlation with other U.S. assets, and the impact of its fall on portfolio performance, came into sharper focus when the Trump administration announced far-reaching global tariffs on April 2, sending U.S. stock indexes and the greenback sharply lower. The dollar hit a three-year low against a basket of currencies, raising risks for investors whose portfolios once benefited from the natural hedge. Now, managers are reducing dollar exposures and increasing the hedge ratios for U.S. stock portfolios where clients' investment policies allow them to do so. About 10% of Russell Investments pension fund clients in Europe and the UK have already increased hedge ratios on their international stock portfolios, said Van Luu, global head of solutions strategy for fixed income and foreign exchange for Russell in London. One client raised it to 75% from 50%, highlighting the desire to have a greater portion of U.S. stocks protected against the weakening dollar. "If what we're seeing persists... then you will have more clients taking action in that direction," said Luu. 'MORE HOSTILE' The dollar is down 10% for the year, and 6.5% since U.S. President Donald Trump's so-called Liberation Day in April. Meanwhile, the S&P 500, the benchmark U.S. stock index, has recovered 24% since an April slump and is up 5.3% this year, flirting with record highs. The MSCI gauge of global stocks, minus the U.S., has risen 16% for the year. "It's not enough to look at the stock market and say it is more or less back to where it was, so nothing happened," said Peter Vassallo, FX portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management, who manages currency exposures across its asset classes. BNP has been reducing dollar exposures for its clients that include pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and central banks. It has sold U.S. dollars across stock and fixed income portfolios, and built up what Vassallo described as a sizable position in options for funds that allow these strategies. He said the euro, yen and the Australian dollar are among the primary currencies it bought against the dollar, a big contrast to how the asset manager ended the previous year with a small "overweight" in the U.S. dollar. "This switch towards a more uncertain policy regime created an environment where we as market participants see the U.S. as more hostile to international capital flows, international trading," Vassallo said. After a June review, Justin Onuekwusi, chief investment officer at St. James's Place, said it is maintaining a strategic hedge that allows it to reduce overseas currency exposure in favor of the pound by up to 20%. The strategy "has been beneficial for our clients' returns year to date," he said. Onuekwusi said he now sees the dollar as closer to its longer-term fair value and has marginally reduced dollar hedging across managed portfolios. Foreign investors hold more than $30 trillion in U.S. securities, about $17 trillion of which is in equities and more than $12 trillion in long-term debt, according to data published in April by the U.S. Treasury Department. Marcus Fernandes, global head of currency management at Northern Trust, said the divergence in the correlation of risk is more than in the past. "That's why people are thinking faster than before, 'I need to increase my hedge ratio'," he said. "Once those conversations start, they usually end with increased hedge ratios," he said. COST INCENTIVE Data from Russell showed that a euro-hedged version of the MSCI USA index was flat for the year through May, while the euro-unhedged version was down 8.3%, showing the benefit of hedging for euro-based investors. The dollar is down 13% against the euro on concerns about flip-flopping U.S. trade policies and growth. "FX is back on the boardroom agenda," said Joe McKenna, head of fund solutions at MillTech, a London-based FX and cash management company. "What was once handled quietly in the back office is now drawing the attention of CIOs and CFOs, driven by renewed dollar volatility." Managers hedge currency exposure by selling the dollar against their respective base currency like the euro or the pound in the FX forwards market, and also use derivatives like options. When the dollar weakens, the hedge position gains in value while the dollar exposure on the underlying stock portfolio loses. Forward selling of the dollar is the largest in four years, according to John Velis, Americas macro strategist at BNY Markets, suggesting investors are unwilling to carry long dollar exposures, even with the potential for it to rally if U.S. tariff policy changes or the Israel-Iran conflict resumes. Investors reallocating to U.S. assets to meet benchmark weights after April's selloff are now hedging those exposures, he told Reuters. "It communicates that dollar volatility is a concern," said Velis. "It can be policy volatility as well as macroeconomic volatility that's causing people to... not keep that dollar exposure because of the fears of the dollar decline."

Dollar wallows near 3-1/2-year low as Fed cuts, Trump bill in focus
Dollar wallows near 3-1/2-year low as Fed cuts, Trump bill in focus

Zawya

timean hour ago

  • Zawya

Dollar wallows near 3-1/2-year low as Fed cuts, Trump bill in focus

TOKYO: The U.S. dollar hunkered near the lowest since February 2022 against major peers on Wednesday, as traders considered dovish hints from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, along with the potential impact of President Donald Trump's spending bill. The greenback was pinned near its weakest since September 2021 on the euro, and was at its lowest since January 2015 versus the Swiss franc. Powell reiterated on Tuesday at the European Central Bank's annual conference in Sintra, Portugal that the Fed is taking a patient approach to further interest rate cuts, but didn't rule out a reduction at this month's meeting, saying everything depends on incoming data. That raises the stakes for the monthly non-farm payrolls report on Thursday. Indications of labour market resilience in the U.S. JOLTS figures overnight saw the dollar rise off Tuesday's lows. The dollar index, which measures the currency against six major counterparts, edged up slightly to 96.677, but didn't stray far from the overnight low of 96.373. Markets are also keeping a close watch on Trump's massive tax-and-spending bill, which could add $3.3 trillion to the national debt. The bill, which was passed by the U.S. Senate, will return to the House for final approval. "The confirmation that this is an increase in issuance, an increase in government spending well beyond its means, is not necessarily good news for the Treasury market, and it's arguably one of the reasons the dollar's going down," said Rodrigo Catril, a strategist at National Australia Bank. Also weighing on the U.S. currency has been Trump's continued attacks on Powell, putting Fed independence in the spotlight. On Monday, the President sent the Fed Chair a list of global central bank key rates adorned with handwritten commentary saying the U.S. rate should be between Japan's 0.5% and Denmark's 1.75%, and telling him he was "as usual, 'too late.'" The greenback held steady at 0.7906 Swiss franc, after dipping as low as 0.7873 franc in the previous session. The euro was flat at $1.1802, sticking close to the overnight peak of $1.1829. Sterling edged up slightly to $1.37435, approaching Tuesday's high of $1.3787, a level last seen in October 2021. The dollar made up a little ground against the yen, adding 0.1% to 143.59 yen, following the prior session's 0.4% slide. (Reporting by Kevin Buckland Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

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