Trump won more than half of foreign-born Hispanics — still would have beaten Harris if every eligible person voted in 2024 election: analysis
President Trump won more than half of foreign-born Hispanic voters in the 2024 election and still would've beat former Vice President Kamala Harris had every eligible voter turned out to the polls, an analysis of his landslide victory concluded Thursday.
A stunning 51% of Hispanic, naturalized US citizens voted for Trump over Harris, according to the Pew Research Center's 2024 election post-mortem.
Trump, who on the campaign trail pledged to crackdown on illegal immigration and shore up the southern border, bested Harris among foreign-born Hispanics by 3 percentage points and performed 12 points better within the demographic than he did in 2020.
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3 Trump won a majority of foreign-born Hispanic voters in the 2024 presidential election.
Gregory P. Mango
After losing the overall Hispanic vote to former president Joe Biden in 2020 (61%-36%), Trump came within striking distance of topping Harris' 51% Latino vote total, garnering 48% from the demographic.
By comparison, Trump received only 28% of the Hispanic vote during his first presidential election in 2016.
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The Pew Research Center analysis, which surveyed almost 9,000 voters in the weeks after the 2024 election, found that Trump's coalition of support in his third presidential campaign was 'more racially and ethnically diverse' than ever before.
The president carried 15% of Black voters (up from 8% in 2020), 40% of Asian voters (up from 30% in 2020) and maintained the same 55% support from white voters he received four years earlier.
Slightly fewer eligible voters turned out to the polls in 2024 (64%) than did in 2020 (66%), and among those that did – a higher share of Trump's 2020 backers than Biden's 2020 supporters cast ballots, according to Pew.
3 Trump made major gains among Hispanic voters in the 2024 election.
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3 More nonvoters would have broken for Trump than Harris.
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But even if every eligible person in the country would have voted, Trump still would have won the 2024 presidential election, the analysis found.
Among non-voters, 44% would have voted for Trump, while 40% said they would have backed Harris – shattering the longstanding political belief that higher turnout helps Democrats.
Had these people participated in the 2024 election, Trump's margin of victory over Harris would have increased from 1.5 percentage points to 3 percentage points.
Trump's historic 49.7%-48.2% victory over Harris last November saw him win the national popular vote for the first time and more Electoral College votes (312) than he won in 2016.
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