Warrnambool council abandons peer-reviewed flood study citing 'supposed science'
The South Warrnambool and Dennington Flood Investigation found high flood risks in the area and recommended changes to council planning schemes.
But at a Warrnambool City Council meeting on Monday night, councillors voted that down, with some claiming they could not believe the "supposed science".
Although the study will go no further, the data is already being used by state government agencies, insurance companies, and the council as the most up-to-date flood information.
Emergency Management Victoria declined the ABC's request for comment.
The southern Warrnambool flood study was a three-year endeavour commissioned and funded by the Victorian government to ensure climate modelling matched the latest rainfall and sea level rise estimates.
The investigation was designed to update 2007 data and reassess the impacts of climate change and flooding through to 2100, including the likelihood of a one-in-one-hundred-year flood event.
Warrnambool City Council was in charge of managing the study — putting it out to tender, conducting community consultations, and dealing with submissions.
Councillors were then required to vote on whether to refer the flood investigation to the state government's planning panel for changes to planning schemes.
On Monday night, they voted against doing so.
Venant Solutions was the specialist consultancy company responsible for the peer-reviewed report.
Principal environmental engineer and lead investigator Michael South said the team used national and localised rainfall inputs, and streamflow and water level data to assess flood risk to the area.
Mr South told the ABC the findings were on the "upper end" of risk, but this was on par with statewide assessments and climate inputs.
"The methodologies we used for the flood study are consistent with other studies and the trajectory of climate change," he said.
"We've never used anything but that."
In the last decade, Mr South said he had worked on around 20 flood studies, half of which he had led, and the push-back in Warrnambool was "a first".
During Monday night's council meeting, four councillors opposed the flood study, claiming the science was "difficult to comprehend", based on "assumptions", lacked detail, and was unable to be validated.
Councillor Vicki Jellie raised the motion against the referral of the study to the state government.
"How do we, with the utmost certainty, know that we can believe this data and supposed science?" Cr Jellie said.
"Some of this has been undoubtedly an assumption."
Councillors were also concerned about loss of land value and crippled development prospects.
Mayor Ben Blain was the only councillor to back the study and told the ABC that failure to formally integrate the flood investigation into the council's planning schemes was a loss for residents, prospective buyers, and the region in general.
"There's now no obligation for sellers to tell buyers that land falls in flood zones, there will be houses built in floodways, and insurance premiums will sky-rocket."
Hashtags

Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles

ABC News
18 hours ago
- ABC News
Do dogs actually need to wear jackets in winter in Australia?
As large parts of the country shiver through winter, making sure our loved ones are rugged up in their warmest clothes is a top priority. And for many of us, that includes our four-legged family members. But does your dog actually need to wear a jacket? According to experts, that depends on a variety of factors, including their size, breed and how cold it gets where you live. One of the main determining factors for whether your dog needs a jacket is how small they are, according to Susan Hazel, an associate professor from the University of Adelaide who specialises in research into animal welfare, behaviour and ethics. Dr Hazel says dogs that are less than 10 kilograms "and ones that are less than 5kg, even more so" are likely to benefit from wearing a jacket when it is cold, particularly if they are venturing outdoors. "Smaller dogs, because their body surface area to body mass has a different ratio, they will get cold," Dr Hazel says. Breeds including Italian greyhounds, French bulldogs, chihuahuas, toy poodles, pugs, Maltese and Yorkshire terriers are among those that can benefit from wearing a coat in colder weather. Shaun Naylor and his husband Benny Cole live on the Gold Coast, on the traditional lands of the Yugambeh people, and have recently welcomed Louis, a four-month-old Italian greyhound, into their family. Shaun said it quickly became clear that Louis "definitely needs a jacket" when it's cold. "He gets really, really cold as soon as the temperature drops," he says. "He might be sitting with us on a couch with a blanket and you might move the blanket and there's a breeze and he just starts to shiver. "We'll get up in the morning and take him out to the garden so he can go to the toilet, and as soon as you pick him up and move him away from the heater or anything, his whole body shakes. "We have had him less than two weeks and he currently has three knitted jumpers, one hoodie, a reflective woolly coat for when he goes walking and some pyjamas." Larger dog breeds — particularly those with double coats such as golden retrievers, labradors, huskies, German shepherds, border collies and Newfoundlands — are more easily able to regulate their body heat, even if they are out walking in cold or wet weather. "They really are wearing a heavy fur coat and even when it rains, the rain doesn't tend to get through that double layer," Dr Hazel says. However, some larger breeds with single coats or shorter hair, such as greyhounds, have low body fat, which means they don't have much insulation from the cold. "If your dog gets cold, it will shiver in the same way that we do if we get really cold, so people will know if their greyhounds are a bit cold," Dr Hazel says. If your dog is sleeping inside, there's generally no need to dress them in jackets or pyjamas overnight, provided they have warm bedding. Dr Hazel says there are more important considerations than a jacket if your dog sleeps outdoors at night, including a kennel that is protected from wind and rain. She says it's important they have "somewhere they can keep warm and [have] some bedding" and "not just a bit of concrete". "The smaller the dog, the more important that would be, and the colder the area, the more important that would be." Shaun also owns a Maltese–chihuahua cross named Dylan, and says he has "lots of fur, so I guess it's a little bit more for the people than for him when you put him in clothes". "But he does like to have a jacket when it's cold … he'll come to you and let you know he wants his jacket." Dr Hazel says, "dogs are people pleasers" and "if the dog tolerates it … [and] you're not using aversive methods", there is generally no harm dressing them in clothes. "You get the full range with dogs, with some of them that love wearing a coat, some of them that are ambivalent but put up with it and some that hate it." She says she would "never, ever recommend trying to force a jacket on a dog that didn't like it" and "if you did that, every time you did it, it's going to get harder and harder". Owners should also make sure any jackets or jumpers fit their dogs properly and regularly check that there are no ill-fitting straps, Velcro or other material that is rubbing on their skin and causing pain or discomfort. Mount Gambier vet Teresa Priddle recently told the ABC that jackets should always be taken on and off every day and it was worth "checking daily that it's fitting correctly and there are no rub marks".

ABC News
20 hours ago
- ABC News
Kingston South East and Robe hit by flooding and storm damage in wave of bad weather
A storm has caused flooding and damaged infrastructure for the third time in two months in Kingston South East and Robe, in South Australia's south-east. The towns were hit with a high tide, winds of up to 100 kilometres per hour, swell of up to 6 metres high and heavy rain yesterday. The towns suffered through similar weather at the end of May and the end of June. Yesterday's weather also caused flooding for the third time this year in the Rosetown area of Kingston. Despite houses in the area being built high off the street the State Emergency Service had to respond to water coming into two homes yesterday. "Certainly the rough weather kept the SES crews busy across the state," spokesperson Chris Marks said. "In the South East we had 32 requests for assistance, so our volunteers were certainly working hard." More bad weather is expected over the weekend. Rosetown resident Peter Frankling said the water came up quickly and surrounded his home. "I was talking to a friend earlier in the day and I said, 'I reckon it might flood again' — and within five minutes it had come up over the road … it's come in quite hard and quite fast," he said. Yesterday Kingston District Council voted to order a drainage study to look into how flooding could be prevented in Rosetown. Council chief executive Ian Hart said it appeared that the flooding was becoming more common and that water lying around for extended periods could have negative health effects. "You talk to people who have been here many more years than I have and they're saying they haven't seen anything like it before — what's happened in the last few weeks — for many, many years," he said. "This might be the new norm — we don't know." Flinders University professor Patrick Hesp has been studying erosion along the Limestone Coast for several years. He said the storms and damage appeared to be occurring "pretty much random" rather than being part of a growing pattern. "We're just having one of those years where we're having a storm every month and I believe another one is coming this weekend," Professor Hesp said. Bruce Parker filmed huge waves crashing over the Cape Jaffa jetty on Tuesday. "You will see in that video there is a little bit of damage to the jetty — just off the shore line, boards have lifted a bit," he said. In Robe power poles and beaches were damaged. Mayor Lisa Ruffell said the council had put rubble down on Fox Beach after sand added after last month's storms washed away. "It was pretty wild — the winds were so strong," she said. "I don't think I've ever seen the sea so rough and coming right at us, with the waves coming up across our coastline." A seal was seen waddling out of the marina and wandering around town. "He was so cute, but I could feel his pain, because it was just so bad, the weather," Cr Ruffell said. "The marina, where it was, the water was right over the car park there and so I thought, 'He doesn't probably want to go in it.' "I wouldn't blame him." More windy and rainy weather is expected on Friday, Saturday and Sunday. Bureau of Meteorology meteorologist Lincoln Trainor said a front would come through the South East on Friday, along with a broad low-pressure system. "It is going to a bit more wild, windy and wet from Friday onwards," he said.

ABC News
21 hours ago
- ABC News
What is happening with SA's algal bloom and why should the rest of Australia care?
South Australia is dealing with an "unprecedented" environmental disaster, which has spread throughout the coastline, killing thousands of sea creatures and taking a toll on businesses, tourism and the mental health of those who live and work near the sea. Authorities and scientists say climate change has been a key driver in the algal bloom and warn the bloom is unlikely to go away anytime soon. Here's what we know so far. What causes algal blooms? UTS marine biologist Shauna Murray told the ABC earlier this year that marine phytoplankton were generally a good thing for the environment, creating up to a half of the world's oxygen. But a small percentage of the more than 100,000 different species of microalgae are harmful or toxic. What is the algal bloom in South Australia? The harmful algal bloom dominating South Australia's coastline is Karenia mikimotoi . In low numbers, the microscopic algae cannot be seen by the naked eye. Here's what it looks like under a microscope: The samples that showed karenia mikimotoi to be present in the Coorong were collected by Glen and Tracy Hill. ( Supplied: Faith Coleman ) "So, they're not visible as cells to the naked eye, but you can see the colouring, so when they're extremely abundant you can see a sort of slight … water discolouration that is reddy, brown … but not always," UTS researcher Shauna Murray told the ABC earlier this year. And from the coastline, it can wash up a brown-coloured foam, which looks like this: The algae produced large amounts of foam again at Knights Beach at Port Elliot over Easter. ( ABC South East SA: Caroline Horn ) How did the bloom begin? SA Environment Minister Susan Close said the outbreak followed three key events. In 2022/23 the state experienced flooding along the River Murray, which saw run-off enter the Southern Ocean. Here's an image of the run off from above: After that, in 2023/24 a cold upswelling brought nutrient rich water to the surface. And in September 2024, a marine heatwave began, which saw temperatures 2.5 degrees Celsius above normal levels. On March 15, surfers and beachgoers reported illnesses after visiting Waitpinga Beach on the Fleurieu Peninsula. By March 16, a brown foam and dead sea life was found on the beach, marking the beginning of a months-long crisis along SA's coastlines. Dr Close said all of those events could be attributed to climate change. What does the algal bloom do to humans? Health authorities say contact with Karenia mikimotoi can cause flu-like symptoms, including skin rashes and respiratory symptoms, but no long-term health impacts. For surfer Anthony Rowland, who first felt the impact of the bloom at Waitpinga Beach, it started as a tickle in his throat and then progressed to a cough. Anthony Rowland said he felt as though authorities did not take his initial reports seriously. ( ABC News: Che Chorley ) He reported other surfers in the area having blurred vision, wheezing and sore throats. How do you treat algal bloom sickness symptoms? SA Health's advice is to stay out of waters where the bloom appears to be present, but if you do come into contact with it to leave the area and wash yourself. "If symptoms are more severe or do not resolve, seek medical advice from a GP and call 000 if it is a medical emergency," SA Health states on its website. How does it kill fish? Professor Murray said the algae affects fish gills and skin. " Karenia mikimotoi doesn't actually produce a toxin but it does produce what's called reactive oxygen species so this can damage the gills of fish and it can affect skin cells," she said. "What this damaging the gills of the fish means is marine animals basically drown if their gills become too damaged." A globe fish on the beach at Waitpinga, south of Victor Harbor, after the initial outbreak in March. ( ABC South East SA: Caroline Horn ) Other dead sea mammals have been found dead along the coast, including dolphins and sea lions. The official advice is that Karenia mikimotoi isn't toxic to mammals. The government said it was not uncommon for marine mammal carcasses to wash ashore after winter storms. SA authorities are performing autopsies to determine the cause. Where is the algal bloom at the moment? As of July 18, authorities say the bloom is present in the Gulf Saint Vincent, which covers many of Adelaide's metropolitan beaches, as well as areas in the Fleurieu Peninsula and the Spencer Gulf. This satellite image shows levels of chlorophyll a in red, which is an indicator of the bloom's presence: A July 16, 2025, sea surface map of chlorophyll-a levels on the South Australian coast, which can indicate algae concentrations. ( Department of Primary Industries and Regions SA ) On Wednesday, a dead sea turtle found at Glenelg was among the latest casualties. What kills an algal bloom? According to the latest science, nothing can be done to dilute or dissipate the bloom. When it first appeared, scientists predicted a cold winter front would help dissipate it. But the ongoing marine heatwave and drought conditions meant rain did not arrive until winter, and the storm fronts have done little to hamper the bloom so far. A birdseye view of the algal bloom in waters off the Fleurieu Peninsula. ( ABC News: Che Chorley ) There have been some glimmers of hope though. Estuarine ecologist Faith Coleman detected Noctiluca scintillans — the algae which causes "sea sparkle". "What they do is they go round, they eat other bacteria and algae, and in this case it looks like they're probably eating Karenia mikimotoi ," Ms Coleman said. Is it safe to eat fish? Fishing businesses and scientists have told the ABC catches are down 50 per cent in some parts of the state, but for those still fishing, business is also being impacted by the news of the bloom. SA Environment Minister Susan Close said she would be looking at further measures to remind consumers that fish for sale was still safe to eat. "SA Health advises that fish caught live are safe to eat," PIRSA's website states. "However, SA Health does not recommend people eat fish or cockles found dead because of likely spoilage and decomposition." South Australian Fisherman Co-Operative Limited manager Ian Mitchell told the ABC earlier this week he had "fishermen in tears on the phone", but the mood was better following the announcement of state and federal funding. This week, the federal government announced $14 million in funding to help South Australia deal with the algal bloom outbreak, but stopped short of declaring it a national disaster. On Tuesday, the SA government said it would match federal funding, with the resources to go to helping impacted industries, further research and monitoring and holding public community information forums. "The feeling was a lot better today than the last three months. There was a fair bit of fish considering the weather was pretty poor, and prices were up a little bit so it seems like the public is listening to, you know, it is safe to eat," Mr Mitchell said. What has the impact been and what's next? The bloom has killed thousands of sea creatures, decimated local sea habitats and has spread at an unprecedented level. It has had a huge impact on commercial fishing, tourism and other businesses who operate in or near the sea. The fish kills have been a hot topic on the island since the beginning of the algal bloom outbreak. ( ABC News: Che Chorley ) The toll on those who work in the space has also been significant. So what's next? Flinders University Associate Professor of Natural Sciences (Oceanography) Jochen Kaempf has developed a computer model to predict where the algae will spread next. While awaiting peer review, the model predicts the bloom will ease over winter, but worsen next summer. "There is nothing you can actually do to prevent it. The only thing you can do is you can hope that there is enough of the zooplankton, which are swimming, small marine plankton that actually eat, take up enough of the algae so that it can't re-evolve in the next summer when the water gets warmer again," Professor Kaempf said. "The only thing that can actually only clear it up is if it's consumed, if it's eaten by other marine organisms of the food chain."